Risk assessment of multireservoir joint flood control system under multiple uncertainties

Abstract Multireservoir joint flood control operation is an important nonstructural measure for flood control in some basins. Owing to the existence of uncertainties in flood control operation, various degrees of risk can be shown in flood control operation systems. Examining these uncertainties and...

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Autores principales:	Quansen Wang, Jianzhong Zhou, Ling Dai, Kangdi Huang, Gang Zha
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Wiley 2021
Materias:	multiple uncertainties multireservoir joint flood control operation risk analysis stochastic simulation River protective works. Regulation. Flood control TC530-537 Disasters and engineering TA495
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/41f15abe357f44fe9254caea0f044eb6
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:41f15abe357f44fe9254caea0f044eb62021-11-11T05:32:09ZRisk assessment of multireservoir joint flood control system under multiple uncertainties1753-318X10.1111/jfr3.12740https://doaj.org/article/41f15abe357f44fe9254caea0f044eb62021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12740https://doaj.org/toc/1753-318XAbstract Multireservoir joint flood control operation is an important nonstructural measure for flood control in some basins. Owing to the existence of uncertainties in flood control operation, various degrees of risk can be shown in flood control operation systems. Examining these uncertainties and the resulting risk of failure in multireservoir operation systems is extremely beneficial and indispensable for basin flood mitigation. In this study, different stochastic simulation methods were employed to generate streamflow series at multiple stations and other uncertainties such as the flood forecast errors, discharge capacity, and reservoir storage. Then, the Monte Carlo framework was established based on the simulation sequence to estimate the risk of a failure of each flood control unit in the flood control system. Furthermore, a comprehensive risk assessment indicator was proposed to consider the failure probability and failure consequences at the same time. The Xiluodu‐Xiangjiaba‐Three Gorges cascade reservoirs were selected as a case study. Results show that the applied probabilistic simulation methods could simulate various uncertainties in a multireservoir flood control system effectively, and the proposed risk analysis method could comprehensively evaluate the risks of reservoir overtopping, flood flows exceeding a standard, and flood diversion from the perspective of overall watershed security.Quansen WangJianzhong ZhouLing DaiKangdi HuangGang ZhaWileyarticlemultiple uncertaintiesmultireservoir joint flood control operationrisk analysisstochastic simulationRiver protective works. Regulation. Flood controlTC530-537Disasters and engineeringTA495ENJournal of Flood Risk Management, Vol 14, Iss 4, Pp n/a-n/a (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	multiple uncertainties multireservoir joint flood control operation risk analysis stochastic simulation River protective works. Regulation. Flood control TC530-537 Disasters and engineering TA495
spellingShingle	multiple uncertainties multireservoir joint flood control operation risk analysis stochastic simulation River protective works. Regulation. Flood control TC530-537 Disasters and engineering TA495 Quansen Wang Jianzhong Zhou Ling Dai Kangdi Huang Gang Zha Risk assessment of multireservoir joint flood control system under multiple uncertainties
description	Abstract Multireservoir joint flood control operation is an important nonstructural measure for flood control in some basins. Owing to the existence of uncertainties in flood control operation, various degrees of risk can be shown in flood control operation systems. Examining these uncertainties and the resulting risk of failure in multireservoir operation systems is extremely beneficial and indispensable for basin flood mitigation. In this study, different stochastic simulation methods were employed to generate streamflow series at multiple stations and other uncertainties such as the flood forecast errors, discharge capacity, and reservoir storage. Then, the Monte Carlo framework was established based on the simulation sequence to estimate the risk of a failure of each flood control unit in the flood control system. Furthermore, a comprehensive risk assessment indicator was proposed to consider the failure probability and failure consequences at the same time. The Xiluodu‐Xiangjiaba‐Three Gorges cascade reservoirs were selected as a case study. Results show that the applied probabilistic simulation methods could simulate various uncertainties in a multireservoir flood control system effectively, and the proposed risk analysis method could comprehensively evaluate the risks of reservoir overtopping, flood flows exceeding a standard, and flood diversion from the perspective of overall watershed security.
format	article
author	Quansen Wang Jianzhong Zhou Ling Dai Kangdi Huang Gang Zha
author_facet	Quansen Wang Jianzhong Zhou Ling Dai Kangdi Huang Gang Zha
author_sort	Quansen Wang
title	Risk assessment of multireservoir joint flood control system under multiple uncertainties
title_short	Risk assessment of multireservoir joint flood control system under multiple uncertainties
title_full	Risk assessment of multireservoir joint flood control system under multiple uncertainties
title_fullStr	Risk assessment of multireservoir joint flood control system under multiple uncertainties
title_full_unstemmed	Risk assessment of multireservoir joint flood control system under multiple uncertainties
title_sort	risk assessment of multireservoir joint flood control system under multiple uncertainties
publisher	Wiley
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/41f15abe357f44fe9254caea0f044eb6
work_keys_str_mv	AT quansenwang riskassessmentofmultireservoirjointfloodcontrolsystemundermultipleuncertainties AT jianzhongzhou riskassessmentofmultireservoirjointfloodcontrolsystemundermultipleuncertainties AT lingdai riskassessmentofmultireservoirjointfloodcontrolsystemundermultipleuncertainties AT kangdihuang riskassessmentofmultireservoirjointfloodcontrolsystemundermultipleuncertainties AT gangzha riskassessmentofmultireservoirjointfloodcontrolsystemundermultipleuncertainties
_version_	1718439478689792000

Risk assessment of multireservoir joint flood control system under multiple uncertainties

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