Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis.

Dengue is steadily increasing worldwide and expanding into higher latitudes. Current non-endemic areas are prone to become endemic soon. To improve understanding of dengue transmission in these settings, we assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the hitherto largest outbreak in the non-endemic metr...

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Autores principales:	Juan Manuel Gurevitz, Julián Gustavo Antman, Karina Laneri, Juan Manuel Morales
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4260b066b9c34fb482febf145c897643
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:4260b066b9c34fb482febf145c897643
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4260b066b9c34fb482febf145c8976432021-11-25T06:33:08ZTemperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis.1935-27271935-273510.1371/journal.pntd.0009465https://doaj.org/article/4260b066b9c34fb482febf145c8976432021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009465https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735Dengue is steadily increasing worldwide and expanding into higher latitudes. Current non-endemic areas are prone to become endemic soon. To improve understanding of dengue transmission in these settings, we assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the hitherto largest outbreak in the non-endemic metropolis of Buenos Aires, Argentina, based on detailed information on the 5,104 georeferenced cases registered during summer-autumn of 2016. The highly seasonal dengue transmission in Buenos Aires was modulated by temperature and triggered by imported cases coming from regions with ongoing outbreaks. However, local transmission was made possible and consolidated heterogeneously in the city due to housing and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, with 32.8% of autochthonous cases occurring in slums, which held only 6.4% of the city population. A hierarchical spatiotemporal model accounting for imperfect detection of cases showed that, outside slums, less-affluent neighborhoods of houses (vs. apartments) favored transmission. Global and local spatiotemporal point-pattern analyses demonstrated that most transmission occurred at or close to home. Additionally, based on these results, a point-pattern analysis was assessed for early identification of transmission foci during the outbreak while accounting for population spatial distribution. Altogether, our results reveal how social, physical, and biological processes shape dengue transmission in Buenos Aires and, likely, other non-endemic cities, and suggest multiple opportunities for control interventions.Juan Manuel GurevitzJulián Gustavo AntmanKarina LaneriJuan Manuel MoralesPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleArctic medicine. Tropical medicineRC955-962Public aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENPLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 6, p e0009465 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
spellingShingle	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Juan Manuel Gurevitz Julián Gustavo Antman Karina Laneri Juan Manuel Morales Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis.
description	Dengue is steadily increasing worldwide and expanding into higher latitudes. Current non-endemic areas are prone to become endemic soon. To improve understanding of dengue transmission in these settings, we assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the hitherto largest outbreak in the non-endemic metropolis of Buenos Aires, Argentina, based on detailed information on the 5,104 georeferenced cases registered during summer-autumn of 2016. The highly seasonal dengue transmission in Buenos Aires was modulated by temperature and triggered by imported cases coming from regions with ongoing outbreaks. However, local transmission was made possible and consolidated heterogeneously in the city due to housing and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, with 32.8% of autochthonous cases occurring in slums, which held only 6.4% of the city population. A hierarchical spatiotemporal model accounting for imperfect detection of cases showed that, outside slums, less-affluent neighborhoods of houses (vs. apartments) favored transmission. Global and local spatiotemporal point-pattern analyses demonstrated that most transmission occurred at or close to home. Additionally, based on these results, a point-pattern analysis was assessed for early identification of transmission foci during the outbreak while accounting for population spatial distribution. Altogether, our results reveal how social, physical, and biological processes shape dengue transmission in Buenos Aires and, likely, other non-endemic cities, and suggest multiple opportunities for control interventions.
format	article
author	Juan Manuel Gurevitz Julián Gustavo Antman Karina Laneri Juan Manuel Morales
author_facet	Juan Manuel Gurevitz Julián Gustavo Antman Karina Laneri Juan Manuel Morales
author_sort	Juan Manuel Gurevitz
title	Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis.
title_short	Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis.
title_full	Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis.
title_fullStr	Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis.
title_full_unstemmed	Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis.
title_sort	temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/4260b066b9c34fb482febf145c897643
work_keys_str_mv	AT juanmanuelgurevitz temperaturetravelingslumsandhousingdrivedenguetransmissioninanonendemicmetropolis AT juliangustavoantman temperaturetravelingslumsandhousingdrivedenguetransmissioninanonendemicmetropolis AT karinalaneri temperaturetravelingslumsandhousingdrivedenguetransmissioninanonendemicmetropolis AT juanmanuelmorales temperaturetravelingslumsandhousingdrivedenguetransmissioninanonendemicmetropolis
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Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis.

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