A nomogram model for predicting prognosis of obstructive colorectal cancer

Abstract Background The prognosis of obstructive colorectal cancer (oCRC) is worse than that of nonobstructive colorectal cancer. However, no previous study has established an individualized prediction model for the prognosis of patients with oCRC. We aimed to screen the factors that affect the prog...

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Autores principales:	Jian Lv, Yuan yuan Liu, Yi tao Jia, Jing li He, Guang yao Dai, Peng Guo, Zhao long Zhao, Yan ni Zhang, Zhong xin Li
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	BMC 2021
Materias:	Colorectal cancer Obstruction Prognosis Nomogram Surgery RD1-811 Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens RC254-282
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/42d1f40554cd483c9f8e5de4422260c1
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:42d1f40554cd483c9f8e5de4422260c12021-12-05T12:21:30ZA nomogram model for predicting prognosis of obstructive colorectal cancer10.1186/s12957-021-02445-61477-7819https://doaj.org/article/42d1f40554cd483c9f8e5de4422260c12021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12957-021-02445-6https://doaj.org/toc/1477-7819Abstract Background The prognosis of obstructive colorectal cancer (oCRC) is worse than that of nonobstructive colorectal cancer. However, no previous study has established an individualized prediction model for the prognosis of patients with oCRC. We aimed to screen the factors that affect the prognosis of oCRC and to use these findings to establish a nomogram model that predicts the individual prognosis of patients with oCRC. Methods This retrospective study collected data of 181 patients with oCRC from three medical hospitals between February 2012 and December 2017. Among them, 129 patients from one hospital were used as the training cohort. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used in this training cohort to select independent risk factors that affect the prognosis of oCRC, and a nomogram model was established. The other 52 patients from two additional hospitals were used as the validation cohort to verify the model. Results Multivariate analysis showed that carcinoembryonic antigen level (p = 0.037, hazard ratio [HR] = 2.872 [1.065–7.740]), N stage (N1 vs. N0, p = 0.028, HR = 3.187 [1.137–8.938]; N2 vs. N0, p = 0.010, HR = 4.098 [1.393–12.051]), and surgical procedures (p = 0.002, HR = 0.299 [0.139–0.643]) were independent prognostic factors of overall survival in patients with oCRC. These factors were used to construct the nomogram model, which showed good concordance and accuracy. Conclusion Carcinoembryonic antigen, N stage, and surgical method are independent prognostic factors for overall survival in patients with oCRC, and the nomogram model can visually display these results.Jian LvYuan yuan LiuYi tao JiaJing li HeGuang yao DaiPeng GuoZhao long ZhaoYan ni ZhangZhong xin LiBMCarticleColorectal cancerObstructionPrognosisNomogramSurgeryRD1-811Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogensRC254-282ENWorld Journal of Surgical Oncology, Vol 19, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Colorectal cancer Obstruction Prognosis Nomogram Surgery RD1-811 Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens RC254-282
spellingShingle	Colorectal cancer Obstruction Prognosis Nomogram Surgery RD1-811 Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens RC254-282 Jian Lv Yuan yuan Liu Yi tao Jia Jing li He Guang yao Dai Peng Guo Zhao long Zhao Yan ni Zhang Zhong xin Li A nomogram model for predicting prognosis of obstructive colorectal cancer
description	Abstract Background The prognosis of obstructive colorectal cancer (oCRC) is worse than that of nonobstructive colorectal cancer. However, no previous study has established an individualized prediction model for the prognosis of patients with oCRC. We aimed to screen the factors that affect the prognosis of oCRC and to use these findings to establish a nomogram model that predicts the individual prognosis of patients with oCRC. Methods This retrospective study collected data of 181 patients with oCRC from three medical hospitals between February 2012 and December 2017. Among them, 129 patients from one hospital were used as the training cohort. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used in this training cohort to select independent risk factors that affect the prognosis of oCRC, and a nomogram model was established. The other 52 patients from two additional hospitals were used as the validation cohort to verify the model. Results Multivariate analysis showed that carcinoembryonic antigen level (p = 0.037, hazard ratio [HR] = 2.872 [1.065–7.740]), N stage (N1 vs. N0, p = 0.028, HR = 3.187 [1.137–8.938]; N2 vs. N0, p = 0.010, HR = 4.098 [1.393–12.051]), and surgical procedures (p = 0.002, HR = 0.299 [0.139–0.643]) were independent prognostic factors of overall survival in patients with oCRC. These factors were used to construct the nomogram model, which showed good concordance and accuracy. Conclusion Carcinoembryonic antigen, N stage, and surgical method are independent prognostic factors for overall survival in patients with oCRC, and the nomogram model can visually display these results.
format	article
author	Jian Lv Yuan yuan Liu Yi tao Jia Jing li He Guang yao Dai Peng Guo Zhao long Zhao Yan ni Zhang Zhong xin Li
author_facet	Jian Lv Yuan yuan Liu Yi tao Jia Jing li He Guang yao Dai Peng Guo Zhao long Zhao Yan ni Zhang Zhong xin Li
author_sort	Jian Lv
title	A nomogram model for predicting prognosis of obstructive colorectal cancer
title_short	A nomogram model for predicting prognosis of obstructive colorectal cancer
title_full	A nomogram model for predicting prognosis of obstructive colorectal cancer
title_fullStr	A nomogram model for predicting prognosis of obstructive colorectal cancer
title_full_unstemmed	A nomogram model for predicting prognosis of obstructive colorectal cancer
title_sort	nomogram model for predicting prognosis of obstructive colorectal cancer
publisher	BMC
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/42d1f40554cd483c9f8e5de4422260c1
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A nomogram model for predicting prognosis of obstructive colorectal cancer

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