Inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics

Directly measuring the size of the susceptible population is usually unfeasible before dengue outbreaks. Here, the authors show that the stability of low-incidence periods provides a proxy measure, which can be estimated from incidence data, and show its utility for forecasting outbreaks.

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Autores principales:	Martin Rypdal, George Sugihara
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2019
Materias:	Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4344c7dd25964e37a790f583bd6b3cb6
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4344c7dd25964e37a790f583bd6b3cb62021-12-02T14:35:37ZInter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics10.1038/s41467-019-10099-y2041-1723https://doaj.org/article/4344c7dd25964e37a790f583bd6b3cb62019-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10099-yhttps://doaj.org/toc/2041-1723Directly measuring the size of the susceptible population is usually unfeasible before dengue outbreaks. Here, the authors show that the stability of low-incidence periods provides a proxy measure, which can be estimated from incidence data, and show its utility for forecasting outbreaks.Martin RypdalGeorge SugiharaNature PortfolioarticleScienceQENNature Communications, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2019)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Science Q
spellingShingle	Science Q Martin Rypdal George Sugihara Inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics
description	Directly measuring the size of the susceptible population is usually unfeasible before dengue outbreaks. Here, the authors show that the stability of low-incidence periods provides a proxy measure, which can be estimated from incidence data, and show its utility for forecasting outbreaks.
format	article
author	Martin Rypdal George Sugihara
author_facet	Martin Rypdal George Sugihara
author_sort	Martin Rypdal
title	Inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics
title_short	Inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics
title_full	Inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics
title_fullStr	Inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics
title_full_unstemmed	Inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics
title_sort	inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2019
url	https://doaj.org/article/4344c7dd25964e37a790f583bd6b3cb6
work_keys_str_mv	AT martinrypdal interoutbreakstabilityreflectsthesizeofthesusceptiblepoolandforecastsmagnitudesofseasonalepidemics AT georgesugihara interoutbreakstabilityreflectsthesizeofthesusceptiblepoolandforecastsmagnitudesofseasonalepidemics
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Inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics

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