Hydrological simulation of the Jialing River Basin using the MIKE SHE model in changing climate

Climate change and human activities have an important impact on the changing environment, leading to significant changes in the basin water cycle process. The Jialing River Basin, the largest tributary of the upper Yangtze River, is selected as the study area. Three different rainfall datasets, the...

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Autores principales:	Jing Zhang, Meng Zhang, Yongyu Song, Yuequn Lai
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	future climate scenario hydropower station mike she model rainfall runoff uncertainty Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/43686854c0b24d6cbcbbaf054cf5eed4
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:43686854c0b24d6cbcbbaf054cf5eed42021-11-05T19:07:39ZHydrological simulation of the Jialing River Basin using the MIKE SHE model in changing climate2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2021.253https://doaj.org/article/43686854c0b24d6cbcbbaf054cf5eed42021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/6/2495https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354Climate change and human activities have an important impact on the changing environment, leading to significant changes in the basin water cycle process. The Jialing River Basin, the largest tributary of the upper Yangtze River, is selected as the study area. Three different rainfall datasets, the China Meteorological Assimilation Driving (CMAD) dataset, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data, and gauged observation data, were used as inputs for the MIKE System Hydrological European (MIKE SHE) model. By comparing the simulation results driven by various meteorological data, the applicability of the MIKE SHE model at four stations is evaluated, and the sensitivity and uncertainty of model parameters are analyzed. Meanwhile, the impact of large hydropower stations on the runoff of the Jialing River Basin is assessed, and the influence of human activities on the runoff change is determined. The future climate change of the watershed was analyzed by using the typical representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Based on the MIKE SHE model, the runoff of the Jialing River Basin in the future climate scenario is predicted, and the corresponding response of the Jialing River Basin is analyzed quantitatively. The results show that the CMAD data-driven model has better Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and correlation coefficient for each period. By analyzing the influence of the hydropower station on the runoff process at the outlet of the basin, it is found that the hydropower station has a certain regulating effect on the runoff process at the outlet of the basin. In addition, the RCP4.5 scenario is more consistent with the future scenario, indicating that the Jialing River Basin will become colder and drier. HIGHLIGHTS By comparing the results of the MIKE SHE model driven by the China Meteorological Assimilation Driving dataset, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data, and gauged data, the applicability of model parameters of the MIKE SHE model is evaluated, and the sensitivity and uncertainty of model parameters are analyzed.; The impact of large hydropower stations on the runoff of the Jialing River Basin is assessed, and the influence of human activities on the runoff change is determined.; Runoff prediction was conducted under two future climate scenarios, and the response of runoff to future climate changes was quantitatively analyzed.;Jing ZhangMeng ZhangYongyu SongYuequn LaiIWA Publishingarticlefuture climate scenariohydropower stationmike she modelrainfallrunoffuncertaintyEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 6, Pp 2495-2514 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	future climate scenario hydropower station mike she model rainfall runoff uncertainty Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	future climate scenario hydropower station mike she model rainfall runoff uncertainty Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Jing Zhang Meng Zhang Yongyu Song Yuequn Lai Hydrological simulation of the Jialing River Basin using the MIKE SHE model in changing climate
description	Climate change and human activities have an important impact on the changing environment, leading to significant changes in the basin water cycle process. The Jialing River Basin, the largest tributary of the upper Yangtze River, is selected as the study area. Three different rainfall datasets, the China Meteorological Assimilation Driving (CMAD) dataset, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data, and gauged observation data, were used as inputs for the MIKE System Hydrological European (MIKE SHE) model. By comparing the simulation results driven by various meteorological data, the applicability of the MIKE SHE model at four stations is evaluated, and the sensitivity and uncertainty of model parameters are analyzed. Meanwhile, the impact of large hydropower stations on the runoff of the Jialing River Basin is assessed, and the influence of human activities on the runoff change is determined. The future climate change of the watershed was analyzed by using the typical representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Based on the MIKE SHE model, the runoff of the Jialing River Basin in the future climate scenario is predicted, and the corresponding response of the Jialing River Basin is analyzed quantitatively. The results show that the CMAD data-driven model has better Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and correlation coefficient for each period. By analyzing the influence of the hydropower station on the runoff process at the outlet of the basin, it is found that the hydropower station has a certain regulating effect on the runoff process at the outlet of the basin. In addition, the RCP4.5 scenario is more consistent with the future scenario, indicating that the Jialing River Basin will become colder and drier. HIGHLIGHTS By comparing the results of the MIKE SHE model driven by the China Meteorological Assimilation Driving dataset, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data, and gauged data, the applicability of model parameters of the MIKE SHE model is evaluated, and the sensitivity and uncertainty of model parameters are analyzed.; The impact of large hydropower stations on the runoff of the Jialing River Basin is assessed, and the influence of human activities on the runoff change is determined.; Runoff prediction was conducted under two future climate scenarios, and the response of runoff to future climate changes was quantitatively analyzed.;
format	article
author	Jing Zhang Meng Zhang Yongyu Song Yuequn Lai
author_facet	Jing Zhang Meng Zhang Yongyu Song Yuequn Lai
author_sort	Jing Zhang
title	Hydrological simulation of the Jialing River Basin using the MIKE SHE model in changing climate
title_short	Hydrological simulation of the Jialing River Basin using the MIKE SHE model in changing climate
title_full	Hydrological simulation of the Jialing River Basin using the MIKE SHE model in changing climate
title_fullStr	Hydrological simulation of the Jialing River Basin using the MIKE SHE model in changing climate
title_full_unstemmed	Hydrological simulation of the Jialing River Basin using the MIKE SHE model in changing climate
title_sort	hydrological simulation of the jialing river basin using the mike she model in changing climate
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/43686854c0b24d6cbcbbaf054cf5eed4
work_keys_str_mv	AT jingzhang hydrologicalsimulationofthejialingriverbasinusingthemikeshemodelinchangingclimate AT mengzhang hydrologicalsimulationofthejialingriverbasinusingthemikeshemodelinchangingclimate AT yongyusong hydrologicalsimulationofthejialingriverbasinusingthemikeshemodelinchangingclimate AT yuequnlai hydrologicalsimulationofthejialingriverbasinusingthemikeshemodelinchangingclimate
_version_	1718444034019557376

Hydrological simulation of the Jialing River Basin using the MIKE SHE model in changing climate

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