La fecundidad en la ciudad de Rosario, Argentina: proyecciones y retroproyecciones de la tasa global de fecundidad y las tasas específicas de fecundidad

The study that gives rise to this article arises from the results obtained in the framework of a collaboration agreement signed by the Statistical Office of Rosario City and the School of Statistics of the Faculty of Economic Sciences and Statistics (National University of Rosario). Among its object...

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Autores principales:	Lucía Andreozzi, Nora Ventroni
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	ES
Publicado:	Centro Centroamericano de Población 2021
Materias:	global fertility rate specific fertility rates functional data model probabilistic forecast models Economic theory. Demography HB1-3840
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/444508fbf43c4ad99f5d4f03d8af7f4d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:444508fbf43c4ad99f5d4f03d8af7f4d2021-11-10T15:18:29ZLa fecundidad en la ciudad de Rosario, Argentina: proyecciones y retroproyecciones de la tasa global de fecundidad y las tasas específicas de fecundidad10.15517/psm.v18i2.416931659-0201https://doaj.org/article/444508fbf43c4ad99f5d4f03d8af7f4d2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/psm/article/view/41693https://doaj.org/toc/1659-0201The study that gives rise to this article arises from the results obtained in the framework of a collaboration agreement signed by the Statistical Office of Rosario City and the School of Statistics of the Faculty of Economic Sciences and Statistics (National University of Rosario). Among its objectives is to obtain probabilistic fertility forecasts for Rosario City. For this, based on vital statistics, estimates and population projections, probable scenarios, past and future, are constructed, both for the global fertility rate and the specific fertility rates. The results of this study, based on the application of probabilistic prognostic models, allow to know structures and trends, past and future, of fertility, so that diagnoses can be generated that are useful for the evaluation and management of the health system or good for the development of new public policies. The results indicate that Rosario had, has and will continue to have a change in fertility patterns faster and more marked than the national average. Although this fact is to be expected in a context marked by advances in public health (which allow access to more and better reproductive health care), the methodology used here is based solely on the extrapolation of trends, therefore, the backprojection must be carefully analyzed.Lucía AndreozziNora VentroniCentro Centroamericano de Poblaciónarticleglobal fertility ratespecific fertility ratesfunctional data modelprobabilistic forecast modelsEconomic theory. DemographyHB1-3840ESPoblación y Salud en Mesoamérica, Vol 18, Iss 2 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	ES
topic	global fertility rate specific fertility rates functional data model probabilistic forecast models Economic theory. Demography HB1-3840
spellingShingle	global fertility rate specific fertility rates functional data model probabilistic forecast models Economic theory. Demography HB1-3840 Lucía Andreozzi Nora Ventroni La fecundidad en la ciudad de Rosario, Argentina: proyecciones y retroproyecciones de la tasa global de fecundidad y las tasas específicas de fecundidad
description	The study that gives rise to this article arises from the results obtained in the framework of a collaboration agreement signed by the Statistical Office of Rosario City and the School of Statistics of the Faculty of Economic Sciences and Statistics (National University of Rosario). Among its objectives is to obtain probabilistic fertility forecasts for Rosario City. For this, based on vital statistics, estimates and population projections, probable scenarios, past and future, are constructed, both for the global fertility rate and the specific fertility rates. The results of this study, based on the application of probabilistic prognostic models, allow to know structures and trends, past and future, of fertility, so that diagnoses can be generated that are useful for the evaluation and management of the health system or good for the development of new public policies. The results indicate that Rosario had, has and will continue to have a change in fertility patterns faster and more marked than the national average. Although this fact is to be expected in a context marked by advances in public health (which allow access to more and better reproductive health care), the methodology used here is based solely on the extrapolation of trends, therefore, the backprojection must be carefully analyzed.
format	article
author	Lucía Andreozzi Nora Ventroni
author_facet	Lucía Andreozzi Nora Ventroni
author_sort	Lucía Andreozzi
title	La fecundidad en la ciudad de Rosario, Argentina: proyecciones y retroproyecciones de la tasa global de fecundidad y las tasas específicas de fecundidad
title_short	La fecundidad en la ciudad de Rosario, Argentina: proyecciones y retroproyecciones de la tasa global de fecundidad y las tasas específicas de fecundidad
title_full	La fecundidad en la ciudad de Rosario, Argentina: proyecciones y retroproyecciones de la tasa global de fecundidad y las tasas específicas de fecundidad
title_fullStr	La fecundidad en la ciudad de Rosario, Argentina: proyecciones y retroproyecciones de la tasa global de fecundidad y las tasas específicas de fecundidad
title_full_unstemmed	La fecundidad en la ciudad de Rosario, Argentina: proyecciones y retroproyecciones de la tasa global de fecundidad y las tasas específicas de fecundidad
title_sort	la fecundidad en la ciudad de rosario, argentina: proyecciones y retroproyecciones de la tasa global de fecundidad y las tasas específicas de fecundidad
publisher	Centro Centroamericano de Población
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/444508fbf43c4ad99f5d4f03d8af7f4d
work_keys_str_mv	AT luciaandreozzi lafecundidadenlaciudadderosarioargentinaproyeccionesyretroproyeccionesdelatasaglobaldefecundidadylastasasespecificasdefecundidad AT noraventroni lafecundidadenlaciudadderosarioargentinaproyeccionesyretroproyeccionesdelatasaglobaldefecundidadylastasasespecificasdefecundidad
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La fecundidad en la ciudad de Rosario, Argentina: proyecciones y retroproyecciones de la tasa global de fecundidad y las tasas específicas de fecundidad

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