The impact of prioritisation and dosing intervals on the effects of COVID-19 vaccination in Europe: an agent-based cohort model

Abstract Different strategies have been used to maximise the effect of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns in Europe. We modelled the impact of different prioritisation choices and dose intervals on infections, hospitalisations, mortality, and public health restrictions. An agent-based model was built to...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Martí Català, Xintong Li, Clara Prats, Daniel Prieto-Alhambra
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/444d339923964fd48c7c66fa6724d122
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:444d339923964fd48c7c66fa6724d122
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:444d339923964fd48c7c66fa6724d1222021-12-02T17:26:49ZThe impact of prioritisation and dosing intervals on the effects of COVID-19 vaccination in Europe: an agent-based cohort model10.1038/s41598-021-98216-02045-2322https://doaj.org/article/444d339923964fd48c7c66fa6724d1222021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-98216-0https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Different strategies have been used to maximise the effect of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns in Europe. We modelled the impact of different prioritisation choices and dose intervals on infections, hospitalisations, mortality, and public health restrictions. An agent-based model was built to quantify the impact of different vaccination strategies over 6 months. Input parameters were derived from published phase 3 trials and official European figures. We explored the effect of prioritising vulnerable people, care-home staff and residents, versus contagious groups; and the impact of dose intervals ranging from 3 to 12 weeks. Prioritising vulnerable people, rather than the most contagious, led to higher numbers of COVID-19 infections, whilst reducing mortality, hospital admissions, and public health restrictions. At a realistic vaccination speed of ≤ 0·1% population/day, separating doses by 12 weeks (vs a baseline scenario of 3 weeks) reduced hospitalisations, mortality, and restrictions for vaccines with similar first- and second-dose efficacy (e.g., the Oxford-AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccines), but not for those with lower first vs second-dose efficacy (e.g., the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine). Mass vaccination will dramatically reduce the effect of COVID-19 on Europe’s health and economy. Early vaccination of vulnerable populations will reduce mortality, hospitalisations, and public health restrictions compared to prioritisation of the most contagious people. The choice of interval between doses should be based on expected vaccine availability and first-dose efficacy, with 12-week intervals preferred over shorter intervals in most realistic scenarios.Martí CatalàXintong LiClara PratsDaniel Prieto-AlhambraNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Martí Català Xintong Li Clara Prats Daniel Prieto-Alhambra The impact of prioritisation and dosing intervals on the effects of COVID-19 vaccination in Europe: an agent-based cohort model
description	Abstract Different strategies have been used to maximise the effect of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns in Europe. We modelled the impact of different prioritisation choices and dose intervals on infections, hospitalisations, mortality, and public health restrictions. An agent-based model was built to quantify the impact of different vaccination strategies over 6 months. Input parameters were derived from published phase 3 trials and official European figures. We explored the effect of prioritising vulnerable people, care-home staff and residents, versus contagious groups; and the impact of dose intervals ranging from 3 to 12 weeks. Prioritising vulnerable people, rather than the most contagious, led to higher numbers of COVID-19 infections, whilst reducing mortality, hospital admissions, and public health restrictions. At a realistic vaccination speed of ≤ 0·1% population/day, separating doses by 12 weeks (vs a baseline scenario of 3 weeks) reduced hospitalisations, mortality, and restrictions for vaccines with similar first- and second-dose efficacy (e.g., the Oxford-AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccines), but not for those with lower first vs second-dose efficacy (e.g., the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine). Mass vaccination will dramatically reduce the effect of COVID-19 on Europe’s health and economy. Early vaccination of vulnerable populations will reduce mortality, hospitalisations, and public health restrictions compared to prioritisation of the most contagious people. The choice of interval between doses should be based on expected vaccine availability and first-dose efficacy, with 12-week intervals preferred over shorter intervals in most realistic scenarios.
format	article
author	Martí Català Xintong Li Clara Prats Daniel Prieto-Alhambra
author_facet	Martí Català Xintong Li Clara Prats Daniel Prieto-Alhambra
author_sort	Martí Català
title	The impact of prioritisation and dosing intervals on the effects of COVID-19 vaccination in Europe: an agent-based cohort model
title_short	The impact of prioritisation and dosing intervals on the effects of COVID-19 vaccination in Europe: an agent-based cohort model
title_full	The impact of prioritisation and dosing intervals on the effects of COVID-19 vaccination in Europe: an agent-based cohort model
title_fullStr	The impact of prioritisation and dosing intervals on the effects of COVID-19 vaccination in Europe: an agent-based cohort model
title_full_unstemmed	The impact of prioritisation and dosing intervals on the effects of COVID-19 vaccination in Europe: an agent-based cohort model
title_sort	impact of prioritisation and dosing intervals on the effects of covid-19 vaccination in europe: an agent-based cohort model
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/444d339923964fd48c7c66fa6724d122
work_keys_str_mv	AT marticatala theimpactofprioritisationanddosingintervalsontheeffectsofcovid19vaccinationineuropeanagentbasedcohortmodel AT xintongli theimpactofprioritisationanddosingintervalsontheeffectsofcovid19vaccinationineuropeanagentbasedcohortmodel AT claraprats theimpactofprioritisationanddosingintervalsontheeffectsofcovid19vaccinationineuropeanagentbasedcohortmodel AT danielprietoalhambra theimpactofprioritisationanddosingintervalsontheeffectsofcovid19vaccinationineuropeanagentbasedcohortmodel AT marticatala impactofprioritisationanddosingintervalsontheeffectsofcovid19vaccinationineuropeanagentbasedcohortmodel AT xintongli impactofprioritisationanddosingintervalsontheeffectsofcovid19vaccinationineuropeanagentbasedcohortmodel AT claraprats impactofprioritisationanddosingintervalsontheeffectsofcovid19vaccinationineuropeanagentbasedcohortmodel AT danielprietoalhambra impactofprioritisationanddosingintervalsontheeffectsofcovid19vaccinationineuropeanagentbasedcohortmodel
_version_	1718380784115515392

The impact of prioritisation and dosing intervals on the effects of COVID-19 vaccination in Europe: an agent-based cohort model

Ejemplares similares