Spatial-Temporal Variability of Future Rainfall Erosivity and Its Impact on Soil Loss Risk in Kenya

Ongoing climate change poses a major threat to the soil resources of many African countries that mainly rely on an agricultural economy. While arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) take up most of Kenya’s land mass, approximately 64% of its total croplands lie within mountainous areas with high rainfall,...

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Autores principales:	George Watene, Lijun Yu, Yueping Nie, Zongke Zhang, Yves Hategekimana, Felix Mutua, Victor Ongoma, Brian Ayugi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	soil erosion climate change erosivity <i>R</i>-factor GCMs RUSLE Technology T Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) TA1-2040 Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/446e487262c34ab08d0059294c37a79b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:446e487262c34ab08d0059294c37a79b2021-11-11T15:00:20ZSpatial-Temporal Variability of Future Rainfall Erosivity and Its Impact on Soil Loss Risk in Kenya10.3390/app112199032076-3417https://doaj.org/article/446e487262c34ab08d0059294c37a79b2021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/21/9903https://doaj.org/toc/2076-3417Ongoing climate change poses a major threat to the soil resources of many African countries that mainly rely on an agricultural economy. While arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) take up most of Kenya’s land mass, approximately 64% of its total croplands lie within mountainous areas with high rainfall, hence, areas highly vulnerable to water erosion. Flooding of the Great Lakes and increasing desertification of the ASALs are illustrative cases of the implications of recent precipitation dynamics in Kenya. This study applied the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to estimate future soil erosion rates at the national level based on four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project v5 (CMIP5) models under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Results showed the current soil loss rate to be at 4.76 t ha<sup>−1</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup> and projected an increase in average rainfall erosivity under the two scenarios, except for RCP-2.6 (2030s) and (2080s) for the MIROC-5 model. Future projections revealed an incremental change in rainfall erosivity from the baseline climate by a cumulative average of 39.9% and 61.1% for all scenarios by the 2030s and 2080s, respectively, while soil loss is likely to increase concomitantly by 29% and 60%, respectively. The CCCMA_CANESM2 model under the RCP 8.5 (2080s) scenario projected the highest erosion rate of 15 t ha<sup>−1</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup> over Kenya, which is a maximum increase of above 200%, with the Rift Valley region recording an increase of up to 100% from 7.05 to 14.66 t ha<sup>−1</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup>. As a first countrywide future soil erosion study, this assessment provides a useful reference for preventing water erosion and improving ecosystem service security.George WateneLijun YuYueping NieZongke ZhangYves HategekimanaFelix MutuaVictor OngomaBrian AyugiMDPI AGarticlesoil erosionclimate changeerosivity<i>R</i>-factorGCMsRUSLETechnologyTEngineering (General). Civil engineering (General)TA1-2040Biology (General)QH301-705.5PhysicsQC1-999ChemistryQD1-999ENApplied Sciences, Vol 11, Iss 9903, p 9903 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	soil erosion climate change erosivity <i>R</i>-factor GCMs RUSLE Technology T Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) TA1-2040 Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999
spellingShingle	soil erosion climate change erosivity <i>R</i>-factor GCMs RUSLE Technology T Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) TA1-2040 Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 George Watene Lijun Yu Yueping Nie Zongke Zhang Yves Hategekimana Felix Mutua Victor Ongoma Brian Ayugi Spatial-Temporal Variability of Future Rainfall Erosivity and Its Impact on Soil Loss Risk in Kenya
description	Ongoing climate change poses a major threat to the soil resources of many African countries that mainly rely on an agricultural economy. While arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) take up most of Kenya’s land mass, approximately 64% of its total croplands lie within mountainous areas with high rainfall, hence, areas highly vulnerable to water erosion. Flooding of the Great Lakes and increasing desertification of the ASALs are illustrative cases of the implications of recent precipitation dynamics in Kenya. This study applied the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to estimate future soil erosion rates at the national level based on four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project v5 (CMIP5) models under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Results showed the current soil loss rate to be at 4.76 t ha<sup>−1</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup> and projected an increase in average rainfall erosivity under the two scenarios, except for RCP-2.6 (2030s) and (2080s) for the MIROC-5 model. Future projections revealed an incremental change in rainfall erosivity from the baseline climate by a cumulative average of 39.9% and 61.1% for all scenarios by the 2030s and 2080s, respectively, while soil loss is likely to increase concomitantly by 29% and 60%, respectively. The CCCMA_CANESM2 model under the RCP 8.5 (2080s) scenario projected the highest erosion rate of 15 t ha<sup>−1</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup> over Kenya, which is a maximum increase of above 200%, with the Rift Valley region recording an increase of up to 100% from 7.05 to 14.66 t ha<sup>−1</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup>. As a first countrywide future soil erosion study, this assessment provides a useful reference for preventing water erosion and improving ecosystem service security.
format	article
author	George Watene Lijun Yu Yueping Nie Zongke Zhang Yves Hategekimana Felix Mutua Victor Ongoma Brian Ayugi
author_facet	George Watene Lijun Yu Yueping Nie Zongke Zhang Yves Hategekimana Felix Mutua Victor Ongoma Brian Ayugi
author_sort	George Watene
title	Spatial-Temporal Variability of Future Rainfall Erosivity and Its Impact on Soil Loss Risk in Kenya
title_short	Spatial-Temporal Variability of Future Rainfall Erosivity and Its Impact on Soil Loss Risk in Kenya
title_full	Spatial-Temporal Variability of Future Rainfall Erosivity and Its Impact on Soil Loss Risk in Kenya
title_fullStr	Spatial-Temporal Variability of Future Rainfall Erosivity and Its Impact on Soil Loss Risk in Kenya
title_full_unstemmed	Spatial-Temporal Variability of Future Rainfall Erosivity and Its Impact on Soil Loss Risk in Kenya
title_sort	spatial-temporal variability of future rainfall erosivity and its impact on soil loss risk in kenya
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/446e487262c34ab08d0059294c37a79b
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Spatial-Temporal Variability of Future Rainfall Erosivity and Its Impact on Soil Loss Risk in Kenya

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