A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making.

West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. Howev...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Alexander C Keyel, Morgan E Gorris, Ilia Rochlin, Johnny A Uelmen, Luis F Chaves, Gabriel L Hamer, Imelda K Moise, Marta Shocket, A Marm Kilpatrick, Nicholas B DeFelice, Justin K Davis, Eliza Little, Patrick Irwin, Andrew J Tyre, Kelly Helm Smith, Chris L Fredregill, Oliver Elison Timm, Karen M Holcomb, Michael C Wimberly, Matthew J Ward, Christopher M Barker, Charlotte G Rhodes, Rebecca L Smith
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/44cb1440f39f4140acc1bb06afa7bc42
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:44cb1440f39f4140acc1bb06afa7bc42
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:44cb1440f39f4140acc1bb06afa7bc422021-12-02T20:24:08ZA proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making.1935-27271935-273510.1371/journal.pntd.0009653https://doaj.org/article/44cb1440f39f4140acc1bb06afa7bc422021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009653https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m-km, days-weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input.Alexander C KeyelMorgan E GorrisIlia RochlinJohnny A UelmenLuis F ChavesGabriel L HamerImelda K MoiseMarta ShocketA Marm KilpatrickNicholas B DeFeliceJustin K DavisEliza LittlePatrick IrwinAndrew J TyreKelly Helm SmithChris L FredregillOliver Elison TimmKaren M HolcombMichael C WimberlyMatthew J WardChristopher M BarkerCharlotte G RhodesRebecca L SmithPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleArctic medicine. Tropical medicineRC955-962Public aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENPLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 9, p e0009653 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
spellingShingle	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Alexander C Keyel Morgan E Gorris Ilia Rochlin Johnny A Uelmen Luis F Chaves Gabriel L Hamer Imelda K Moise Marta Shocket A Marm Kilpatrick Nicholas B DeFelice Justin K Davis Eliza Little Patrick Irwin Andrew J Tyre Kelly Helm Smith Chris L Fredregill Oliver Elison Timm Karen M Holcomb Michael C Wimberly Matthew J Ward Christopher M Barker Charlotte G Rhodes Rebecca L Smith A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making.
description	West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m-km, days-weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input.
format	article
author	Alexander C Keyel Morgan E Gorris Ilia Rochlin Johnny A Uelmen Luis F Chaves Gabriel L Hamer Imelda K Moise Marta Shocket A Marm Kilpatrick Nicholas B DeFelice Justin K Davis Eliza Little Patrick Irwin Andrew J Tyre Kelly Helm Smith Chris L Fredregill Oliver Elison Timm Karen M Holcomb Michael C Wimberly Matthew J Ward Christopher M Barker Charlotte G Rhodes Rebecca L Smith
author_facet	Alexander C Keyel Morgan E Gorris Ilia Rochlin Johnny A Uelmen Luis F Chaves Gabriel L Hamer Imelda K Moise Marta Shocket A Marm Kilpatrick Nicholas B DeFelice Justin K Davis Eliza Little Patrick Irwin Andrew J Tyre Kelly Helm Smith Chris L Fredregill Oliver Elison Timm Karen M Holcomb Michael C Wimberly Matthew J Ward Christopher M Barker Charlotte G Rhodes Rebecca L Smith
author_sort	Alexander C Keyel
title	A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making.
title_short	A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making.
title_full	A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making.
title_fullStr	A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making.
title_full_unstemmed	A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making.
title_sort	proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of west nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/44cb1440f39f4140acc1bb06afa7bc42
work_keys_str_mv	AT alexanderckeyel aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT morganegorris aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT iliarochlin aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT johnnyauelmen aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT luisfchaves aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT gabriellhamer aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT imeldakmoise aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT martashocket aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT amarmkilpatrick aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT nicholasbdefelice aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT justinkdavis aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT elizalittle aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT patrickirwin aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT andrewjtyre aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT kellyhelmsmith aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT chrislfredregill aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT oliverelisontimm aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT karenmholcomb aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT michaelcwimberly aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT matthewjward aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT christophermbarker aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT charlottegrhodes aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT rebeccalsmith aproposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT alexanderckeyel proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT morganegorris proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT iliarochlin proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT johnnyauelmen proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT luisfchaves proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT gabriellhamer proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT imeldakmoise proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT martashocket proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT amarmkilpatrick proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT nicholasbdefelice proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT justinkdavis proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT elizalittle proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT patrickirwin proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT andrewjtyre proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT kellyhelmsmith proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT chrislfredregill proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT oliverelisontimm proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT karenmholcomb proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT michaelcwimberly proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT matthewjward proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT christophermbarker proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT charlottegrhodes proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking AT rebeccalsmith proposedframeworkforthedevelopmentandqualitativeevaluationofwestnilevirusmodelsandtheirapplicationtolocalpublichealthdecisionmaking
_version_	1718374047597723648

A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making.

Ejemplares similares