Estimating the impact of influenza on the epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-2

As in past pandemics, co-circulating pathogens may play a role in the epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In particular, experimental evidence indicates that influenza infection can up-regulate the exp...

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Autores principales:	Matthieu Domenech de Cellès, Jean-Sebastien Casalegno, Bruno Lina, Lulla Opatowski
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	PeerJ Inc. 2021
Materias:	SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 Influenza Virus–virus interaction Mathematical modeling Medicine R
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/44d69328c1404c8b85e620950a2d2152
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:44d69328c1404c8b85e620950a2d2152
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:44d69328c1404c8b85e620950a2d21522021-12-05T15:05:10ZEstimating the impact of influenza on the epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-210.7717/peerj.125662167-8359https://doaj.org/article/44d69328c1404c8b85e620950a2d21522021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://peerj.com/articles/12566.pdfhttps://peerj.com/articles/12566/https://doaj.org/toc/2167-8359As in past pandemics, co-circulating pathogens may play a role in the epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In particular, experimental evidence indicates that influenza infection can up-regulate the expression of ACE2—the receptor of SARS-CoV-2 in human cells—and facilitate SARS-CoV-2 infection. Here we hypothesized that influenza impacted the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 during the early 2020 epidemic of COVID-19 in Europe. To test this hypothesis, we developed a population-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and of COVID-19 mortality, which simultaneously incorporated the impact of non-pharmaceutical control measures and of influenza on the epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Using statistical inference methods based on iterated filtering, we confronted this model with mortality incidence data in four European countries (Belgium, Italy, Norway, and Spain) to systematically test a range of assumptions about the impact of influenza. We found consistent evidence for a 1.8–3.4-fold (uncertainty range across countries: 1.1 to 5.0) average population-level increase in SARS-CoV-2 transmission associated with influenza during the period of co-circulation. These estimates remained robust to a variety of alternative assumptions regarding the epidemiological traits of SARS-CoV-2 and the modeled impact of control measures. Although further confirmatory evidence is required, our results suggest that influenza could facilitate the spread and hamper effective control of SARS-CoV-2. More generally, they highlight the possible role of co-circulating pathogens in the epidemiology of COVID-19.Matthieu Domenech de CellèsJean-Sebastien CasalegnoBruno LinaLulla OpatowskiPeerJ Inc.articleSARS-CoV-2COVID-19InfluenzaVirus–virus interactionMathematical modelingMedicineRENPeerJ, Vol 9, p e12566 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 Influenza Virus–virus interaction Mathematical modeling Medicine R
spellingShingle	SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 Influenza Virus–virus interaction Mathematical modeling Medicine R Matthieu Domenech de Cellès Jean-Sebastien Casalegno Bruno Lina Lulla Opatowski Estimating the impact of influenza on the epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-2
description	As in past pandemics, co-circulating pathogens may play a role in the epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In particular, experimental evidence indicates that influenza infection can up-regulate the expression of ACE2—the receptor of SARS-CoV-2 in human cells—and facilitate SARS-CoV-2 infection. Here we hypothesized that influenza impacted the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 during the early 2020 epidemic of COVID-19 in Europe. To test this hypothesis, we developed a population-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and of COVID-19 mortality, which simultaneously incorporated the impact of non-pharmaceutical control measures and of influenza on the epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Using statistical inference methods based on iterated filtering, we confronted this model with mortality incidence data in four European countries (Belgium, Italy, Norway, and Spain) to systematically test a range of assumptions about the impact of influenza. We found consistent evidence for a 1.8–3.4-fold (uncertainty range across countries: 1.1 to 5.0) average population-level increase in SARS-CoV-2 transmission associated with influenza during the period of co-circulation. These estimates remained robust to a variety of alternative assumptions regarding the epidemiological traits of SARS-CoV-2 and the modeled impact of control measures. Although further confirmatory evidence is required, our results suggest that influenza could facilitate the spread and hamper effective control of SARS-CoV-2. More generally, they highlight the possible role of co-circulating pathogens in the epidemiology of COVID-19.
format	article
author	Matthieu Domenech de Cellès Jean-Sebastien Casalegno Bruno Lina Lulla Opatowski
author_facet	Matthieu Domenech de Cellès Jean-Sebastien Casalegno Bruno Lina Lulla Opatowski
author_sort	Matthieu Domenech de Cellès
title	Estimating the impact of influenza on the epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-2
title_short	Estimating the impact of influenza on the epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-2
title_full	Estimating the impact of influenza on the epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-2
title_fullStr	Estimating the impact of influenza on the epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-2
title_full_unstemmed	Estimating the impact of influenza on the epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-2
title_sort	estimating the impact of influenza on the epidemiological dynamics of sars-cov-2
publisher	PeerJ Inc.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/44d69328c1404c8b85e620950a2d2152
work_keys_str_mv	AT matthieudomenechdecelles estimatingtheimpactofinfluenzaontheepidemiologicaldynamicsofsarscov2 AT jeansebastiencasalegno estimatingtheimpactofinfluenzaontheepidemiologicaldynamicsofsarscov2 AT brunolina estimatingtheimpactofinfluenzaontheepidemiologicaldynamicsofsarscov2 AT lullaopatowski estimatingtheimpactofinfluenzaontheepidemiologicaldynamicsofsarscov2
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Estimating the impact of influenza on the epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-2

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