Probabilistic threshold analysis by pairwise stochastic approximation for decision-making under uncertainty

Abstract The concept of probabilistic parameter threshold analysis has recently been introduced as a way of probabilistic sensitivity analysis for decision-making under uncertainty, in particular, for health economic evaluations which compare two or more alternative treatments with consideration of...

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Autores principales:	Takashi Goda, Yuki Yamada
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4625d567c59d41f191c957d49e9f2978
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4625d567c59d41f191c957d49e9f29782021-12-02T17:13:17ZProbabilistic threshold analysis by pairwise stochastic approximation for decision-making under uncertainty10.1038/s41598-021-99089-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/4625d567c59d41f191c957d49e9f29782021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-99089-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The concept of probabilistic parameter threshold analysis has recently been introduced as a way of probabilistic sensitivity analysis for decision-making under uncertainty, in particular, for health economic evaluations which compare two or more alternative treatments with consideration of uncertainty on outcomes and costs. In this paper we formulate the probabilistic threshold analysis as a root-finding problem involving the conditional expectations, and propose a pairwise stochastic approximation algorithm to search for the threshold value below and above which the choice of conditionally optimal decision options changes. Numerical experiments for both a simple synthetic testcase and a chemotherapy Markov model illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm, without any need for accurate estimation or approximation of conditional expectations which the existing approaches rely upon. Moreover we introduce a new measure called decision switching probability for probabilistic sensitivity analysis in this paper.Takashi GodaYuki YamadaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Takashi Goda Yuki Yamada Probabilistic threshold analysis by pairwise stochastic approximation for decision-making under uncertainty
description	Abstract The concept of probabilistic parameter threshold analysis has recently been introduced as a way of probabilistic sensitivity analysis for decision-making under uncertainty, in particular, for health economic evaluations which compare two or more alternative treatments with consideration of uncertainty on outcomes and costs. In this paper we formulate the probabilistic threshold analysis as a root-finding problem involving the conditional expectations, and propose a pairwise stochastic approximation algorithm to search for the threshold value below and above which the choice of conditionally optimal decision options changes. Numerical experiments for both a simple synthetic testcase and a chemotherapy Markov model illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm, without any need for accurate estimation or approximation of conditional expectations which the existing approaches rely upon. Moreover we introduce a new measure called decision switching probability for probabilistic sensitivity analysis in this paper.
format	article
author	Takashi Goda Yuki Yamada
author_facet	Takashi Goda Yuki Yamada
author_sort	Takashi Goda
title	Probabilistic threshold analysis by pairwise stochastic approximation for decision-making under uncertainty
title_short	Probabilistic threshold analysis by pairwise stochastic approximation for decision-making under uncertainty
title_full	Probabilistic threshold analysis by pairwise stochastic approximation for decision-making under uncertainty
title_fullStr	Probabilistic threshold analysis by pairwise stochastic approximation for decision-making under uncertainty
title_full_unstemmed	Probabilistic threshold analysis by pairwise stochastic approximation for decision-making under uncertainty
title_sort	probabilistic threshold analysis by pairwise stochastic approximation for decision-making under uncertainty
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/4625d567c59d41f191c957d49e9f2978
work_keys_str_mv	AT takashigoda probabilisticthresholdanalysisbypairwisestochasticapproximationfordecisionmakingunderuncertainty AT yukiyamada probabilisticthresholdanalysisbypairwisestochasticapproximationfordecisionmakingunderuncertainty
_version_	1718381374581243904

Probabilistic threshold analysis by pairwise stochastic approximation for decision-making under uncertainty

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