How to predict seasonal weather and monsoons with radionuclide monitoring

Abstract Monsoon in India is of particular importance for the $2 trillion economy, highly dependent on agriculture. Monsoon rains water two-thirds of India’s harvest. However, the monsoon season also causes large-scale flooding, resulting in loss of human life and economic damage estimated around $7...

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Autores principales:	Lucrezia Terzi, Martin Kalinowski, Michael Schoeppner, Gerhard Wotawa
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2019
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/46e99f7f56b44214b5a738a195300dcc
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:46e99f7f56b44214b5a738a195300dcc2021-12-02T15:09:45ZHow to predict seasonal weather and monsoons with radionuclide monitoring10.1038/s41598-019-39664-72045-2322https://doaj.org/article/46e99f7f56b44214b5a738a195300dcc2019-02-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39664-7https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Monsoon in India is of particular importance for the $2 trillion economy, highly dependent on agriculture. Monsoon rains water two-thirds of India’s harvest. However, the monsoon season also causes large-scale flooding, resulting in loss of human life and economic damage estimated around $7 billion annually. Beryllium-7 is a tracer that can be used to monitor the intensity of stratosphere-troposphere exchange, which varies in accordance with the annual cycle of the global atmospheric circulation (Hadley, Ferrel and Polar cells). Based on the beryllium-7 data collected globally as part of the monitoring of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, the presented empirical method demonstrates the possibility to predict the start, withdrawal and intensity of the Indian monsoon season. Onset can be forecasted with an unprecedented accuracy of ±3 days, 2 months in advance compared to 1–3 weeks in advance by traditional methods. Applying this new method will enable better preparation for economic and natural hazard impacts of the monsoon season in India. This method can also be extended to other regions where the movement of Hadley cells governs monsoon onset and withdrawal.Lucrezia TerziMartin KalinowskiMichael SchoeppnerGerhard WotawaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 1-6 (2019)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Lucrezia Terzi Martin Kalinowski Michael Schoeppner Gerhard Wotawa How to predict seasonal weather and monsoons with radionuclide monitoring
description	Abstract Monsoon in India is of particular importance for the $2 trillion economy, highly dependent on agriculture. Monsoon rains water two-thirds of India’s harvest. However, the monsoon season also causes large-scale flooding, resulting in loss of human life and economic damage estimated around $7 billion annually. Beryllium-7 is a tracer that can be used to monitor the intensity of stratosphere-troposphere exchange, which varies in accordance with the annual cycle of the global atmospheric circulation (Hadley, Ferrel and Polar cells). Based on the beryllium-7 data collected globally as part of the monitoring of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, the presented empirical method demonstrates the possibility to predict the start, withdrawal and intensity of the Indian monsoon season. Onset can be forecasted with an unprecedented accuracy of ±3 days, 2 months in advance compared to 1–3 weeks in advance by traditional methods. Applying this new method will enable better preparation for economic and natural hazard impacts of the monsoon season in India. This method can also be extended to other regions where the movement of Hadley cells governs monsoon onset and withdrawal.
format	article
author	Lucrezia Terzi Martin Kalinowski Michael Schoeppner Gerhard Wotawa
author_facet	Lucrezia Terzi Martin Kalinowski Michael Schoeppner Gerhard Wotawa
author_sort	Lucrezia Terzi
title	How to predict seasonal weather and monsoons with radionuclide monitoring
title_short	How to predict seasonal weather and monsoons with radionuclide monitoring
title_full	How to predict seasonal weather and monsoons with radionuclide monitoring
title_fullStr	How to predict seasonal weather and monsoons with radionuclide monitoring
title_full_unstemmed	How to predict seasonal weather and monsoons with radionuclide monitoring
title_sort	how to predict seasonal weather and monsoons with radionuclide monitoring
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2019
url	https://doaj.org/article/46e99f7f56b44214b5a738a195300dcc
work_keys_str_mv	AT lucreziaterzi howtopredictseasonalweatherandmonsoonswithradionuclidemonitoring AT martinkalinowski howtopredictseasonalweatherandmonsoonswithradionuclidemonitoring AT michaelschoeppner howtopredictseasonalweatherandmonsoonswithradionuclidemonitoring AT gerhardwotawa howtopredictseasonalweatherandmonsoonswithradionuclidemonitoring
_version_	1718387749222875136

How to predict seasonal weather and monsoons with radionuclide monitoring

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