Evaluating the grassland NPP dynamics in response to climate change in Tanzania

Livestock is important for livelihoods of millions of people across the world and yet climate change risk and impacts assessments are predominantly on cropping systems. Climate change has significant impacts on Net Primary Production (NPP) which is a grassland dynamics indicator. This study aimed to...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Azin Zarei, Abel Chemura, Stephanie Gleixner, Holger Hoff
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Grassland dynamics Net Primary Production (NPP) Climate change impacts Emission scenarios Livestock units Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/46ee51e2c2954192b5c4ebd1be148810
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:46ee51e2c2954192b5c4ebd1be148810
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:46ee51e2c2954192b5c4ebd1be1488102021-12-01T04:49:07ZEvaluating the grassland NPP dynamics in response to climate change in Tanzania1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107600https://doaj.org/article/46ee51e2c2954192b5c4ebd1be1488102021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X2100265Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XLivestock is important for livelihoods of millions of people across the world and yet climate change risk and impacts assessments are predominantly on cropping systems. Climate change has significant impacts on Net Primary Production (NPP) which is a grassland dynamics indicator. This study aimed to analyze the spatio-temporal changes of NPP under climate scenario RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in the grassland of Tanzania by 2050 and link this to potential for key livestock species. To this end, a regression model to estimate NPP was developed based on temperature (T), precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (ET) during the period 2001–2019. NPP fluctuation maps under future scenarios were produced as difference maps of the current (2009–2019) and future (2050). The vulnerable areas whose NPP is mostly likely to get affected by climate change in 2050 were identified. The number of livestock units in grasslands was estimated according to NPP in grasslands of Tanzania at the Provincial levels. The results indicate the mean temperature and evapotranspiration are projected to increase under both emission scenarios while precipitation will decrease. NPP is significantly positively correlated with Tmax and ET and projected increases in these variables will be beneficial to NPP under climate change. Increases of 17% in 2050 under RCP8.5 scenario are projected, with the southern parts of the country projected to have the largest increase in NPP. The southwest areas showed a decreasing trend in mean NPP of 27.95% (RCP2.6) and 13.43% (RCP8.5). The highest decrease would occur in the RCP2.6 scenario in Ruvuma Province, by contrast, the mean NPP value in the western, eastern, and central parts would increase in 2050 under both Scenarios, the largest increase would observe in Kilimanjaro, Dar-Es-Salaam and Dodoma Provinces. It was found that the number of grazing livestock such as cattle, sheep, and goats will increase in the Tanzania grasslands under both climate scenarios. As the grassland ecosystems under intensive exploitation are fragile ecosystems, a combination of improving grassland productivity and grassland conservation under environmental pressures such as climate change should be considered for sustainable grassland management.Azin ZareiAbel ChemuraStephanie GleixnerHolger HoffElsevierarticleGrassland dynamicsNet Primary Production (NPP)Climate change impactsEmission scenariosLivestock unitsEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 125, Iss , Pp 107600- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Grassland dynamics Net Primary Production (NPP) Climate change impacts Emission scenarios Livestock units Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Grassland dynamics Net Primary Production (NPP) Climate change impacts Emission scenarios Livestock units Ecology QH540-549.5 Azin Zarei Abel Chemura Stephanie Gleixner Holger Hoff Evaluating the grassland NPP dynamics in response to climate change in Tanzania
description	Livestock is important for livelihoods of millions of people across the world and yet climate change risk and impacts assessments are predominantly on cropping systems. Climate change has significant impacts on Net Primary Production (NPP) which is a grassland dynamics indicator. This study aimed to analyze the spatio-temporal changes of NPP under climate scenario RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in the grassland of Tanzania by 2050 and link this to potential for key livestock species. To this end, a regression model to estimate NPP was developed based on temperature (T), precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (ET) during the period 2001–2019. NPP fluctuation maps under future scenarios were produced as difference maps of the current (2009–2019) and future (2050). The vulnerable areas whose NPP is mostly likely to get affected by climate change in 2050 were identified. The number of livestock units in grasslands was estimated according to NPP in grasslands of Tanzania at the Provincial levels. The results indicate the mean temperature and evapotranspiration are projected to increase under both emission scenarios while precipitation will decrease. NPP is significantly positively correlated with Tmax and ET and projected increases in these variables will be beneficial to NPP under climate change. Increases of 17% in 2050 under RCP8.5 scenario are projected, with the southern parts of the country projected to have the largest increase in NPP. The southwest areas showed a decreasing trend in mean NPP of 27.95% (RCP2.6) and 13.43% (RCP8.5). The highest decrease would occur in the RCP2.6 scenario in Ruvuma Province, by contrast, the mean NPP value in the western, eastern, and central parts would increase in 2050 under both Scenarios, the largest increase would observe in Kilimanjaro, Dar-Es-Salaam and Dodoma Provinces. It was found that the number of grazing livestock such as cattle, sheep, and goats will increase in the Tanzania grasslands under both climate scenarios. As the grassland ecosystems under intensive exploitation are fragile ecosystems, a combination of improving grassland productivity and grassland conservation under environmental pressures such as climate change should be considered for sustainable grassland management.
format	article
author	Azin Zarei Abel Chemura Stephanie Gleixner Holger Hoff
author_facet	Azin Zarei Abel Chemura Stephanie Gleixner Holger Hoff
author_sort	Azin Zarei
title	Evaluating the grassland NPP dynamics in response to climate change in Tanzania
title_short	Evaluating the grassland NPP dynamics in response to climate change in Tanzania
title_full	Evaluating the grassland NPP dynamics in response to climate change in Tanzania
title_fullStr	Evaluating the grassland NPP dynamics in response to climate change in Tanzania
title_full_unstemmed	Evaluating the grassland NPP dynamics in response to climate change in Tanzania
title_sort	evaluating the grassland npp dynamics in response to climate change in tanzania
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/46ee51e2c2954192b5c4ebd1be148810
work_keys_str_mv	AT azinzarei evaluatingthegrasslandnppdynamicsinresponsetoclimatechangeintanzania AT abelchemura evaluatingthegrasslandnppdynamicsinresponsetoclimatechangeintanzania AT stephaniegleixner evaluatingthegrasslandnppdynamicsinresponsetoclimatechangeintanzania AT holgerhoff evaluatingthegrasslandnppdynamicsinresponsetoclimatechangeintanzania
_version_	1718405720302419968

Evaluating the grassland NPP dynamics in response to climate change in Tanzania

Ejemplares similares