Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern

Abstract The linkage between crop yield and climate variability has been confirmed in numerous studies using statistical approaches. A crucial assumption in these studies is that crop spatial distribution pattern is constant over time. Here, we explore how changes in county-level corn spatial distri...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Guoyong Leng, Maoyi Huang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4756f489109b477dbc139f6b5265c950
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:4756f489109b477dbc139f6b5265c950
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4756f489109b477dbc139f6b5265c9502021-12-02T12:32:07ZCrop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern10.1038/s41598-017-01599-22045-2322https://doaj.org/article/4756f489109b477dbc139f6b5265c9502017-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01599-2https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The linkage between crop yield and climate variability has been confirmed in numerous studies using statistical approaches. A crucial assumption in these studies is that crop spatial distribution pattern is constant over time. Here, we explore how changes in county-level corn spatial distribution pattern modulate the response of its yields to climate change at the state level over the Contiguous United States. Our results show that corn yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level. Corn yield is predicted to decrease by 20~40% by 2050 s when considering crop spatial distribution pattern changes, which is 6~12% less than the estimates with fixed cropping pattern. The beneficial effects are mainly achieved by reducing the negative impacts of daily maximum temperature and strengthening the positive impacts of precipitation. Our results indicate that previous empirical studies could be biased in assessing climate change impacts by ignoring the changes in crop spatial distribution pattern. This has great implications for understanding the increasing debates on whether climate change will be a net gain or loss for regional agriculture.Guoyong LengMaoyi HuangNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Guoyong Leng Maoyi Huang Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern
description	Abstract The linkage between crop yield and climate variability has been confirmed in numerous studies using statistical approaches. A crucial assumption in these studies is that crop spatial distribution pattern is constant over time. Here, we explore how changes in county-level corn spatial distribution pattern modulate the response of its yields to climate change at the state level over the Contiguous United States. Our results show that corn yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level. Corn yield is predicted to decrease by 20~40% by 2050 s when considering crop spatial distribution pattern changes, which is 6~12% less than the estimates with fixed cropping pattern. The beneficial effects are mainly achieved by reducing the negative impacts of daily maximum temperature and strengthening the positive impacts of precipitation. Our results indicate that previous empirical studies could be biased in assessing climate change impacts by ignoring the changes in crop spatial distribution pattern. This has great implications for understanding the increasing debates on whether climate change will be a net gain or loss for regional agriculture.
format	article
author	Guoyong Leng Maoyi Huang
author_facet	Guoyong Leng Maoyi Huang
author_sort	Guoyong Leng
title	Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern
title_short	Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern
title_full	Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern
title_fullStr	Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern
title_full_unstemmed	Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern
title_sort	crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/4756f489109b477dbc139f6b5265c950
work_keys_str_mv	AT guoyongleng cropyieldresponsetoclimatechangevarieswithcropspatialdistributionpattern AT maoyihuang cropyieldresponsetoclimatechangevarieswithcropspatialdistributionpattern
_version_	1718394151975780352

Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern

Ejemplares similares