An SIR-type epidemiological model that integrates social distancing as a dynamic law based on point prevalence and socio-behavioral factors

Abstract Modeling human behavior within mathematical models of infectious diseases is a key component to understand and control disease spread. We present a mathematical compartmental model of Susceptible–Infectious–Removed to compare the infected curves given by four different functional forms desc...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Maritza Cabrera, Fernando Córdova-Lepe, Juan Pablo Gutiérrez-Jara, Katia Vogt-Geisse
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4776fc089f0643c682ba25ce6f913f8b
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:4776fc089f0643c682ba25ce6f913f8b
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4776fc089f0643c682ba25ce6f913f8b2021-12-02T16:50:36ZAn SIR-type epidemiological model that integrates social distancing as a dynamic law based on point prevalence and socio-behavioral factors10.1038/s41598-021-89492-x2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/4776fc089f0643c682ba25ce6f913f8b2021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89492-xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Modeling human behavior within mathematical models of infectious diseases is a key component to understand and control disease spread. We present a mathematical compartmental model of Susceptible–Infectious–Removed to compare the infected curves given by four different functional forms describing the transmission rate. These depend on the distance that individuals keep on average to others in their daily lives. We assume that this distance varies according to the balance between two opposite thrives: the self-protecting reaction of individuals upon the presence of disease to increase social distancing and their necessity to return to a culturally dependent natural social distance that occurs in the absence of disease. We present simulations to compare results for different society types on point prevalence, the peak size of a first epidemic outbreak and the time of occurrence of that peak, for four different transmission rate functional forms and parameters of interest related to distancing behavior, such as: the reaction velocity of a society to change social distance during an epidemic. We observe the vulnerability to disease spread of close contact societies, and also show that certain social distancing behavior may provoke a small peak of a first epidemic outbreak, but at the expense of it occurring early after the epidemic onset, observing differences in this regard between society types. We also discuss the appearance of temporal oscillations of the four different transmission rates, their differences, and how this oscillatory behavior is impacted through social distancing; breaking the unimodality of the actives-curve produced by the classical SIR-model.Maritza CabreraFernando Córdova-LepeJuan Pablo Gutiérrez-JaraKatia Vogt-GeisseNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-16 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Maritza Cabrera Fernando Córdova-Lepe Juan Pablo Gutiérrez-Jara Katia Vogt-Geisse An SIR-type epidemiological model that integrates social distancing as a dynamic law based on point prevalence and socio-behavioral factors
description	Abstract Modeling human behavior within mathematical models of infectious diseases is a key component to understand and control disease spread. We present a mathematical compartmental model of Susceptible–Infectious–Removed to compare the infected curves given by four different functional forms describing the transmission rate. These depend on the distance that individuals keep on average to others in their daily lives. We assume that this distance varies according to the balance between two opposite thrives: the self-protecting reaction of individuals upon the presence of disease to increase social distancing and their necessity to return to a culturally dependent natural social distance that occurs in the absence of disease. We present simulations to compare results for different society types on point prevalence, the peak size of a first epidemic outbreak and the time of occurrence of that peak, for four different transmission rate functional forms and parameters of interest related to distancing behavior, such as: the reaction velocity of a society to change social distance during an epidemic. We observe the vulnerability to disease spread of close contact societies, and also show that certain social distancing behavior may provoke a small peak of a first epidemic outbreak, but at the expense of it occurring early after the epidemic onset, observing differences in this regard between society types. We also discuss the appearance of temporal oscillations of the four different transmission rates, their differences, and how this oscillatory behavior is impacted through social distancing; breaking the unimodality of the actives-curve produced by the classical SIR-model.
format	article
author	Maritza Cabrera Fernando Córdova-Lepe Juan Pablo Gutiérrez-Jara Katia Vogt-Geisse
author_facet	Maritza Cabrera Fernando Córdova-Lepe Juan Pablo Gutiérrez-Jara Katia Vogt-Geisse
author_sort	Maritza Cabrera
title	An SIR-type epidemiological model that integrates social distancing as a dynamic law based on point prevalence and socio-behavioral factors
title_short	An SIR-type epidemiological model that integrates social distancing as a dynamic law based on point prevalence and socio-behavioral factors
title_full	An SIR-type epidemiological model that integrates social distancing as a dynamic law based on point prevalence and socio-behavioral factors
title_fullStr	An SIR-type epidemiological model that integrates social distancing as a dynamic law based on point prevalence and socio-behavioral factors
title_full_unstemmed	An SIR-type epidemiological model that integrates social distancing as a dynamic law based on point prevalence and socio-behavioral factors
title_sort	sir-type epidemiological model that integrates social distancing as a dynamic law based on point prevalence and socio-behavioral factors
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/4776fc089f0643c682ba25ce6f913f8b
work_keys_str_mv	AT maritzacabrera ansirtypeepidemiologicalmodelthatintegratessocialdistancingasadynamiclawbasedonpointprevalenceandsociobehavioralfactors AT fernandocordovalepe ansirtypeepidemiologicalmodelthatintegratessocialdistancingasadynamiclawbasedonpointprevalenceandsociobehavioralfactors AT juanpablogutierrezjara ansirtypeepidemiologicalmodelthatintegratessocialdistancingasadynamiclawbasedonpointprevalenceandsociobehavioralfactors AT katiavogtgeisse ansirtypeepidemiologicalmodelthatintegratessocialdistancingasadynamiclawbasedonpointprevalenceandsociobehavioralfactors AT maritzacabrera sirtypeepidemiologicalmodelthatintegratessocialdistancingasadynamiclawbasedonpointprevalenceandsociobehavioralfactors AT fernandocordovalepe sirtypeepidemiologicalmodelthatintegratessocialdistancingasadynamiclawbasedonpointprevalenceandsociobehavioralfactors AT juanpablogutierrezjara sirtypeepidemiologicalmodelthatintegratessocialdistancingasadynamiclawbasedonpointprevalenceandsociobehavioralfactors AT katiavogtgeisse sirtypeepidemiologicalmodelthatintegratessocialdistancingasadynamiclawbasedonpointprevalenceandsociobehavioralfactors
_version_	1718383034117390336

An SIR-type epidemiological model that integrates social distancing as a dynamic law based on point prevalence and socio-behavioral factors

Ejemplares similares