Modeling and statistical analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal influenza in Israel.

<h4>Background</h4>Seasonal influenza outbreaks are a serious burden for public health worldwide and cause morbidity to millions of people each year. In the temperate zone influenza is predominantly seasonal, with epidemics occurring every winter, but the severity of the outbreaks vary s...

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Autores principales:	Amit Huppert, Oren Barnea, Guy Katriel, Rami Yaari, Uri Roll, Lewi Stone
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2012
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/47b672bb8ee5407ea8e2dc5c7f3ab561
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:47b672bb8ee5407ea8e2dc5c7f3ab5612021-11-18T08:12:58ZModeling and statistical analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal influenza in Israel.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0045107https://doaj.org/article/47b672bb8ee5407ea8e2dc5c7f3ab5612012-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23056192/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Background</h4>Seasonal influenza outbreaks are a serious burden for public health worldwide and cause morbidity to millions of people each year. In the temperate zone influenza is predominantly seasonal, with epidemics occurring every winter, but the severity of the outbreaks vary substantially between years. In this study we used a highly detailed database, which gave us both temporal and spatial information of influenza dynamics in Israel in the years 1998-2009. We use a discrete-time stochastic epidemic SIR model to find estimates and credible confidence intervals of key epidemiological parameters.<h4>Findings</h4>Despite the biological complexity of the disease we found that a simple SIR-type model can be fitted successfully to the seasonal influenza data. This was true at both the national levels and at the scale of single cities.The effective reproductive number R(e) varies between the different years both nationally and among Israeli cities. However, we did not find differences in R(e) between different Israeli cities within a year. R(e) was positively correlated to the strength of the spatial synchronization in Israel. For those years in which the disease was more "infectious", then outbreaks in different cities tended to occur with smaller time lags. Our spatial analysis demonstrates that both the timing and the strength of the outbreak within a year are highly synchronized between the Israeli cities. We extend the spatial analysis to demonstrate the existence of high synchrony between Israeli and French influenza outbreaks.<h4>Conclusions</h4>The data analysis combined with mathematical modeling provided a better understanding of the spatio-temporal and synchronization dynamics of influenza in Israel and between Israel and France. Altogether, we show that despite major differences in demography and weather conditions intra-annual influenza epidemics are tightly synchronized in both their timing and magnitude, while they may vary greatly between years. The predominance of a similar main strain of influenza, combined with population mixing serve to enhance local and global influenza synchronization within an influenza season.Amit HuppertOren BarneaGuy KatrielRami YaariUri RollLewi StonePublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 7, Iss 10, p e45107 (2012)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Amit Huppert Oren Barnea Guy Katriel Rami Yaari Uri Roll Lewi Stone Modeling and statistical analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal influenza in Israel.
description	<h4>Background</h4>Seasonal influenza outbreaks are a serious burden for public health worldwide and cause morbidity to millions of people each year. In the temperate zone influenza is predominantly seasonal, with epidemics occurring every winter, but the severity of the outbreaks vary substantially between years. In this study we used a highly detailed database, which gave us both temporal and spatial information of influenza dynamics in Israel in the years 1998-2009. We use a discrete-time stochastic epidemic SIR model to find estimates and credible confidence intervals of key epidemiological parameters.<h4>Findings</h4>Despite the biological complexity of the disease we found that a simple SIR-type model can be fitted successfully to the seasonal influenza data. This was true at both the national levels and at the scale of single cities.The effective reproductive number R(e) varies between the different years both nationally and among Israeli cities. However, we did not find differences in R(e) between different Israeli cities within a year. R(e) was positively correlated to the strength of the spatial synchronization in Israel. For those years in which the disease was more "infectious", then outbreaks in different cities tended to occur with smaller time lags. Our spatial analysis demonstrates that both the timing and the strength of the outbreak within a year are highly synchronized between the Israeli cities. We extend the spatial analysis to demonstrate the existence of high synchrony between Israeli and French influenza outbreaks.<h4>Conclusions</h4>The data analysis combined with mathematical modeling provided a better understanding of the spatio-temporal and synchronization dynamics of influenza in Israel and between Israel and France. Altogether, we show that despite major differences in demography and weather conditions intra-annual influenza epidemics are tightly synchronized in both their timing and magnitude, while they may vary greatly between years. The predominance of a similar main strain of influenza, combined with population mixing serve to enhance local and global influenza synchronization within an influenza season.
format	article
author	Amit Huppert Oren Barnea Guy Katriel Rami Yaari Uri Roll Lewi Stone
author_facet	Amit Huppert Oren Barnea Guy Katriel Rami Yaari Uri Roll Lewi Stone
author_sort	Amit Huppert
title	Modeling and statistical analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal influenza in Israel.
title_short	Modeling and statistical analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal influenza in Israel.
title_full	Modeling and statistical analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal influenza in Israel.
title_fullStr	Modeling and statistical analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal influenza in Israel.
title_full_unstemmed	Modeling and statistical analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal influenza in Israel.
title_sort	modeling and statistical analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal influenza in israel.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2012
url	https://doaj.org/article/47b672bb8ee5407ea8e2dc5c7f3ab561
work_keys_str_mv	AT amithuppert modelingandstatisticalanalysisofthespatiotemporalpatternsofseasonalinfluenzainisrael AT orenbarnea modelingandstatisticalanalysisofthespatiotemporalpatternsofseasonalinfluenzainisrael AT guykatriel modelingandstatisticalanalysisofthespatiotemporalpatternsofseasonalinfluenzainisrael AT ramiyaari modelingandstatisticalanalysisofthespatiotemporalpatternsofseasonalinfluenzainisrael AT uriroll modelingandstatisticalanalysisofthespatiotemporalpatternsofseasonalinfluenzainisrael AT lewistone modelingandstatisticalanalysisofthespatiotemporalpatternsofseasonalinfluenzainisrael
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Modeling and statistical analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal influenza in Israel.

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