Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050

Abstract Identifying and quantifying the effects of climate change that alter the habitat overlap of marine predators and their prey population distributions is of great importance for the sustainable management of populations. This study uses Bayesian joint models with integrated nested Laplace app...

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Autores principales:	Dinara Sadykova, Beth E. Scott, Michela De Dominicis, Sarah L. Wakelin, Judith Wolf, Alexander Sadykov
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Wiley 2020
Materias:	Besag York and Mollie (BYM) models critical marine habitat fish integrated nested Laplace approximation marine mammals Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/47d7ab117c6c4bc09e66ce8ac46eae92
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:47d7ab117c6c4bc09e66ce8ac46eae922021-11-04T13:06:10ZEcological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 20502045-775810.1002/ece3.5973https://doaj.org/article/47d7ab117c6c4bc09e66ce8ac46eae922020-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5973https://doaj.org/toc/2045-7758Abstract Identifying and quantifying the effects of climate change that alter the habitat overlap of marine predators and their prey population distributions is of great importance for the sustainable management of populations. This study uses Bayesian joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) to predict future spatial density distributions in the form of common spatial trends of predator–prey overlap in 2050 under the “business‐as‐usual, worst‐case” climate change scenario. This was done for combinations of six mobile marine predator species (gray seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black‐legged kittiwake, and northern gannet) and two of their common prey species (herring and sandeels). A range of five explanatory variables that cover both physical and biological aspects of critical marine habitat were used as follows: bottom temperature, stratification, depth‐averaged speed, net primary production, and maximum subsurface chlorophyll. Four different methods were explored to quantify relative ecological cost/benefits of climate change to the common spatial trends of predator–prey density distributions. All but one future joint model showed significant decreases in overall spatial percentage change. The most dramatic loss in predator–prey population overlap was shown by harbor seals with large declines in the common spatial trend for both prey species. On the positive side, both gannets and guillemots are projected to have localized regions with increased overlap with sandeels. Most joint predator–prey models showed large changes in centroid location, however the direction of change in centroids was not simply northwards, but mostly ranged from northwest to northeast. This approach can be very useful in informing the design of spatial management policies under climate change by using the potential differences in ecological costs to weigh up the trade‐offs in decisions involving issues of large‐scale spatial use of our oceans, such as marine protected areas, commercial fishing, and large‐scale marine renewable developments.Dinara SadykovaBeth E. ScottMichela De DominicisSarah L. WakelinJudith WolfAlexander SadykovWileyarticleBesagYork and Mollie (BYM) modelscritical marine habitatfishintegrated nested Laplace approximationmarine mammalsEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcology and Evolution, Vol 10, Iss 2, Pp 1069-1086 (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Besag York and Mollie (BYM) models critical marine habitat fish integrated nested Laplace approximation marine mammals Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Besag York and Mollie (BYM) models critical marine habitat fish integrated nested Laplace approximation marine mammals Ecology QH540-549.5 Dinara Sadykova Beth E. Scott Michela De Dominicis Sarah L. Wakelin Judith Wolf Alexander Sadykov Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050
description	Abstract Identifying and quantifying the effects of climate change that alter the habitat overlap of marine predators and their prey population distributions is of great importance for the sustainable management of populations. This study uses Bayesian joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) to predict future spatial density distributions in the form of common spatial trends of predator–prey overlap in 2050 under the “business‐as‐usual, worst‐case” climate change scenario. This was done for combinations of six mobile marine predator species (gray seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black‐legged kittiwake, and northern gannet) and two of their common prey species (herring and sandeels). A range of five explanatory variables that cover both physical and biological aspects of critical marine habitat were used as follows: bottom temperature, stratification, depth‐averaged speed, net primary production, and maximum subsurface chlorophyll. Four different methods were explored to quantify relative ecological cost/benefits of climate change to the common spatial trends of predator–prey density distributions. All but one future joint model showed significant decreases in overall spatial percentage change. The most dramatic loss in predator–prey population overlap was shown by harbor seals with large declines in the common spatial trend for both prey species. On the positive side, both gannets and guillemots are projected to have localized regions with increased overlap with sandeels. Most joint predator–prey models showed large changes in centroid location, however the direction of change in centroids was not simply northwards, but mostly ranged from northwest to northeast. This approach can be very useful in informing the design of spatial management policies under climate change by using the potential differences in ecological costs to weigh up the trade‐offs in decisions involving issues of large‐scale spatial use of our oceans, such as marine protected areas, commercial fishing, and large‐scale marine renewable developments.
format	article
author	Dinara Sadykova Beth E. Scott Michela De Dominicis Sarah L. Wakelin Judith Wolf Alexander Sadykov
author_facet	Dinara Sadykova Beth E. Scott Michela De Dominicis Sarah L. Wakelin Judith Wolf Alexander Sadykov
author_sort	Dinara Sadykova
title	Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050
title_short	Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050
title_full	Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050
title_fullStr	Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050
title_full_unstemmed	Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050
title_sort	ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050
publisher	Wiley
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/47d7ab117c6c4bc09e66ce8ac46eae92
work_keys_str_mv	AT dinarasadykova ecologicalcostsofclimatechangeonmarinepredatorpreypopulationdistributionsby2050 AT bethescott ecologicalcostsofclimatechangeonmarinepredatorpreypopulationdistributionsby2050 AT micheladedominicis ecologicalcostsofclimatechangeonmarinepredatorpreypopulationdistributionsby2050 AT sarahlwakelin ecologicalcostsofclimatechangeonmarinepredatorpreypopulationdistributionsby2050 AT judithwolf ecologicalcostsofclimatechangeonmarinepredatorpreypopulationdistributionsby2050 AT alexandersadykov ecologicalcostsofclimatechangeonmarinepredatorpreypopulationdistributionsby2050
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Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050

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