Uncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions
Abstract Terrestrial ecosystems play a vital role in regulating the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere. Understanding the factors controlling land C uptake is critical for reducing uncertainties in projections of future climate. The relative importance of changing climate, rising atmospher...
Guardado en:
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | article |
| Lenguaje: | EN |
| Publicado: |
Nature Portfolio
2017
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://doaj.org/article/48391161281440d180e9a93859b0a888 |
| Etiquetas: |
Agregar Etiqueta
Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!
|
| id |
oai:doaj.org-article:48391161281440d180e9a93859b0a888 |
|---|---|
| record_format |
dspace |
| spelling |
oai:doaj.org-article:48391161281440d180e9a93859b0a8882021-12-02T11:52:17ZUncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions10.1038/s41598-017-03818-22045-2322https://doaj.org/article/48391161281440d180e9a93859b0a8882017-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-03818-2https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Terrestrial ecosystems play a vital role in regulating the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere. Understanding the factors controlling land C uptake is critical for reducing uncertainties in projections of future climate. The relative importance of changing climate, rising atmospheric CO2, and other factors, however, remains unclear despite decades of research. Here, we use an ensemble of land models to show that models disagree on the primary driver of cumulative C uptake for 85% of vegetated land area. Disagreement is largest in model sensitivity to rising atmospheric CO2 which shows almost twice the variability in cumulative land uptake since 1901 (1 s.d. of 212.8 PgC vs. 138.5 PgC, respectively). We find that variability in CO2 and temperature sensitivity is attributable, in part, to their compensatory effects on C uptake, whereby comparable estimates of C uptake can arise by invoking different sensitivities to key environmental conditions. Conversely, divergent estimates of C uptake can occur despite being based on the same environmental sensitivities. Together, these findings imply an important limitation to the predictability of C cycling and climate under unprecedented environmental conditions. We suggest that the carbon modeling community prioritize a probabilistic multi-model approach to generate more robust C cycle projections.D. N. HuntzingerA. M. MichalakC. SchwalmP. CiaisA. W. KingY. FangK. SchaeferY. WeiR. B. CookJ. B. FisherD. HayesM. HuangA. ItoA. K. JainH. LeiC. LuF. MaignanJ. MaoN. ParazooS. PengB. PoulterD. RicciutoX. ShiH. TianW. WangN. ZengF. ZhaoNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2017) |
| institution |
DOAJ |
| collection |
DOAJ |
| language |
EN |
| topic |
Medicine R Science Q |
| spellingShingle |
Medicine R Science Q D. N. Huntzinger A. M. Michalak C. Schwalm P. Ciais A. W. King Y. Fang K. Schaefer Y. Wei R. B. Cook J. B. Fisher D. Hayes M. Huang A. Ito A. K. Jain H. Lei C. Lu F. Maignan J. Mao N. Parazoo S. Peng B. Poulter D. Ricciuto X. Shi H. Tian W. Wang N. Zeng F. Zhao Uncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions |
| description |
Abstract Terrestrial ecosystems play a vital role in regulating the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere. Understanding the factors controlling land C uptake is critical for reducing uncertainties in projections of future climate. The relative importance of changing climate, rising atmospheric CO2, and other factors, however, remains unclear despite decades of research. Here, we use an ensemble of land models to show that models disagree on the primary driver of cumulative C uptake for 85% of vegetated land area. Disagreement is largest in model sensitivity to rising atmospheric CO2 which shows almost twice the variability in cumulative land uptake since 1901 (1 s.d. of 212.8 PgC vs. 138.5 PgC, respectively). We find that variability in CO2 and temperature sensitivity is attributable, in part, to their compensatory effects on C uptake, whereby comparable estimates of C uptake can arise by invoking different sensitivities to key environmental conditions. Conversely, divergent estimates of C uptake can occur despite being based on the same environmental sensitivities. Together, these findings imply an important limitation to the predictability of C cycling and climate under unprecedented environmental conditions. We suggest that the carbon modeling community prioritize a probabilistic multi-model approach to generate more robust C cycle projections. |
| format |
article |
| author |
D. N. Huntzinger A. M. Michalak C. Schwalm P. Ciais A. W. King Y. Fang K. Schaefer Y. Wei R. B. Cook J. B. Fisher D. Hayes M. Huang A. Ito A. K. Jain H. Lei C. Lu F. Maignan J. Mao N. Parazoo S. Peng B. Poulter D. Ricciuto X. Shi H. Tian W. Wang N. Zeng F. Zhao |
| author_facet |
D. N. Huntzinger A. M. Michalak C. Schwalm P. Ciais A. W. King Y. Fang K. Schaefer Y. Wei R. B. Cook J. B. Fisher D. Hayes M. Huang A. Ito A. K. Jain H. Lei C. Lu F. Maignan J. Mao N. Parazoo S. Peng B. Poulter D. Ricciuto X. Shi H. Tian W. Wang N. Zeng F. Zhao |
| author_sort |
D. N. Huntzinger |
| title |
Uncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions |
| title_short |
Uncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions |
| title_full |
Uncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions |
| title_fullStr |
Uncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions |
| title_sort |
uncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions |
| publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
| publishDate |
2017 |
| url |
https://doaj.org/article/48391161281440d180e9a93859b0a888 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT dnhuntzinger uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT ammichalak uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT cschwalm uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT pciais uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT awking uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT yfang uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT kschaefer uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT ywei uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT rbcook uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT jbfisher uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT dhayes uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT mhuang uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT aito uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT akjain uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT hlei uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT clu uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT fmaignan uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT jmao uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT nparazoo uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT speng uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT bpoulter uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT dricciuto uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT xshi uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT htian uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT wwang uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT nzeng uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions AT fzhao uncertaintyintheresponseofterrestrialcarbonsinktoenvironmentaldriversunderminescarbonclimatefeedbackpredictions |
| _version_ |
1718395100481978368 |