Inconsistent variation of return periods of temperature extremum in China and its projection based on CMIP6 results

Abstract Increasingly extreme temperature events under global warming can have considerable impacts on sectors such as industrial activities, health, and transportation, suggesting that risk for these kinds of events under climate change and its regional sensitivity should be reassessed. In this stu...

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Autores principales:	Xueyuan Kuang, Danqing Huang, Ying Huang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Springer 2021
Materias:	Inconsistency Return period Extreme temperature Projection CMIP6 Science Q Technology T
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/48e24b5618e24c358470823a48cd67e8
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:48e24b5618e24c358470823a48cd67e8
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:48e24b5618e24c358470823a48cd67e82021-11-21T12:12:20ZInconsistent variation of return periods of temperature extremum in China and its projection based on CMIP6 results10.1007/s42452-021-04863-32523-39632523-3971https://doaj.org/article/48e24b5618e24c358470823a48cd67e82021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-021-04863-3https://doaj.org/toc/2523-3963https://doaj.org/toc/2523-3971Abstract Increasingly extreme temperature events under global warming can have considerable impacts on sectors such as industrial activities, health, and transportation, suggesting that risk for these kinds of events under climate change and its regional sensitivity should be reassessed. In this study, the observation and multi-model simulations from CMIP6 are comprehensively used to explore the regional differences of the extreme temperature response to climate change from the perspective of return period (RP). The Gumbel model of generalized extremum distribution is applied to estimate the RP for the annual extremum of temperature based on Gaussian distribution of daily temperature. The analysis on the observation in selected three sites indicates that the regional inconsistency of RP variation is not only existed in extreme high temperature (HTx) but also in low temperature (LTn) during the past several decades. The annual amplitude of temperature extremum in the Northeast China is enlarged with summer becoming hotter and winter becoming colder while the opposite situation is detected in Huang-Huai River Basin with cooler summer and relatively stable winter, and South China is characterized by hotter summer and slight warmer winter. From the spatial distribution of the HTx and LTn variations of fix RP, it is found that the Northeast China and Jiang-Huai River Basin is the most sensitive areas, respectively, in the response of extreme low temperature and high temperature to global warming. However, the regional inconsistency of the extreme temperature change is only observed under SSP1-2.6 scenario in the CMIP6 simulation but gradually disappeared from SSP2-4.5 to SSP5-8.5.Xueyuan KuangDanqing HuangYing HuangSpringerarticleInconsistencyReturn periodExtreme temperatureProjectionCMIP6ScienceQTechnologyTENSN Applied Sciences, Vol 3, Iss 12, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Inconsistency Return period Extreme temperature Projection CMIP6 Science Q Technology T
spellingShingle	Inconsistency Return period Extreme temperature Projection CMIP6 Science Q Technology T Xueyuan Kuang Danqing Huang Ying Huang Inconsistent variation of return periods of temperature extremum in China and its projection based on CMIP6 results
description	Abstract Increasingly extreme temperature events under global warming can have considerable impacts on sectors such as industrial activities, health, and transportation, suggesting that risk for these kinds of events under climate change and its regional sensitivity should be reassessed. In this study, the observation and multi-model simulations from CMIP6 are comprehensively used to explore the regional differences of the extreme temperature response to climate change from the perspective of return period (RP). The Gumbel model of generalized extremum distribution is applied to estimate the RP for the annual extremum of temperature based on Gaussian distribution of daily temperature. The analysis on the observation in selected three sites indicates that the regional inconsistency of RP variation is not only existed in extreme high temperature (HTx) but also in low temperature (LTn) during the past several decades. The annual amplitude of temperature extremum in the Northeast China is enlarged with summer becoming hotter and winter becoming colder while the opposite situation is detected in Huang-Huai River Basin with cooler summer and relatively stable winter, and South China is characterized by hotter summer and slight warmer winter. From the spatial distribution of the HTx and LTn variations of fix RP, it is found that the Northeast China and Jiang-Huai River Basin is the most sensitive areas, respectively, in the response of extreme low temperature and high temperature to global warming. However, the regional inconsistency of the extreme temperature change is only observed under SSP1-2.6 scenario in the CMIP6 simulation but gradually disappeared from SSP2-4.5 to SSP5-8.5.
format	article
author	Xueyuan Kuang Danqing Huang Ying Huang
author_facet	Xueyuan Kuang Danqing Huang Ying Huang
author_sort	Xueyuan Kuang
title	Inconsistent variation of return periods of temperature extremum in China and its projection based on CMIP6 results
title_short	Inconsistent variation of return periods of temperature extremum in China and its projection based on CMIP6 results
title_full	Inconsistent variation of return periods of temperature extremum in China and its projection based on CMIP6 results
title_fullStr	Inconsistent variation of return periods of temperature extremum in China and its projection based on CMIP6 results
title_full_unstemmed	Inconsistent variation of return periods of temperature extremum in China and its projection based on CMIP6 results
title_sort	inconsistent variation of return periods of temperature extremum in china and its projection based on cmip6 results
publisher	Springer
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/48e24b5618e24c358470823a48cd67e8
work_keys_str_mv	AT xueyuankuang inconsistentvariationofreturnperiodsoftemperatureextremuminchinaanditsprojectionbasedoncmip6results AT danqinghuang inconsistentvariationofreturnperiodsoftemperatureextremuminchinaanditsprojectionbasedoncmip6results AT yinghuang inconsistentvariationofreturnperiodsoftemperatureextremuminchinaanditsprojectionbasedoncmip6results
_version_	1718419119991160832

Inconsistent variation of return periods of temperature extremum in China and its projection based on CMIP6 results

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