Determining future aflatoxin contamination risk scenarios for corn in Southern Georgia, USA using spatio-temporal modelling and future climate simulations

Abstract Aflatoxins (AFs) are produced by fungi in crops and can cause liver cancer. Permitted levels are legislated and batches of grain are rejected based on average concentrations. Corn grown in Southern Georgia (GA), USA, which experiences drought during the mid-silk growth period in June, is pa...

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Autores principales:	Ruth Kerry, Ben Ingram, Esther Garcia-Cela, Naresh Magan, Brenda V. Ortiz, Brian Scully
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4992c34fd33a4958befb2dfdfaa0ece7
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4992c34fd33a4958befb2dfdfaa0ece72021-12-02T14:33:51ZDetermining future aflatoxin contamination risk scenarios for corn in Southern Georgia, USA using spatio-temporal modelling and future climate simulations10.1038/s41598-021-92557-62045-2322https://doaj.org/article/4992c34fd33a4958befb2dfdfaa0ece72021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-92557-6https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Aflatoxins (AFs) are produced by fungi in crops and can cause liver cancer. Permitted levels are legislated and batches of grain are rejected based on average concentrations. Corn grown in Southern Georgia (GA), USA, which experiences drought during the mid-silk growth period in June, is particularly susceptible to infection by Aspergillus section Flavi species which produce AFs. Previous studies showed strong association between AFs and June weather. Risk factors were developed: June maximum temperatures > 33 °C and June rainfall < 50 mm, the 30-year normals for the region. Future climate data were estimated for each year (2000–2100) and county in southern GA using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios. The number of counties with June maximum temperatures > 33 °C and rainfall < 50 mm increased and then plateaued for both emissions scenarios. The percentage of years thresholds were exceeded was greater for RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5. The spatial distribution of high-risk counties changed over time. Results suggest corn growth distribution should be changed or adaptation strategies employed like planting resistant varieties, irrigating and planting earlier. There were significantly more counties exceeding thresholds in 2010–2040 compared to 2000–2030 suggesting that adaptation strategies should be employed as soon as possible.Ruth KerryBen IngramEsther Garcia-CelaNaresh MaganBrenda V. OrtizBrian ScullyNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Ruth Kerry Ben Ingram Esther Garcia-Cela Naresh Magan Brenda V. Ortiz Brian Scully Determining future aflatoxin contamination risk scenarios for corn in Southern Georgia, USA using spatio-temporal modelling and future climate simulations
description	Abstract Aflatoxins (AFs) are produced by fungi in crops and can cause liver cancer. Permitted levels are legislated and batches of grain are rejected based on average concentrations. Corn grown in Southern Georgia (GA), USA, which experiences drought during the mid-silk growth period in June, is particularly susceptible to infection by Aspergillus section Flavi species which produce AFs. Previous studies showed strong association between AFs and June weather. Risk factors were developed: June maximum temperatures > 33 °C and June rainfall < 50 mm, the 30-year normals for the region. Future climate data were estimated for each year (2000–2100) and county in southern GA using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios. The number of counties with June maximum temperatures > 33 °C and rainfall < 50 mm increased and then plateaued for both emissions scenarios. The percentage of years thresholds were exceeded was greater for RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5. The spatial distribution of high-risk counties changed over time. Results suggest corn growth distribution should be changed or adaptation strategies employed like planting resistant varieties, irrigating and planting earlier. There were significantly more counties exceeding thresholds in 2010–2040 compared to 2000–2030 suggesting that adaptation strategies should be employed as soon as possible.
format	article
author	Ruth Kerry Ben Ingram Esther Garcia-Cela Naresh Magan Brenda V. Ortiz Brian Scully
author_facet	Ruth Kerry Ben Ingram Esther Garcia-Cela Naresh Magan Brenda V. Ortiz Brian Scully
author_sort	Ruth Kerry
title	Determining future aflatoxin contamination risk scenarios for corn in Southern Georgia, USA using spatio-temporal modelling and future climate simulations
title_short	Determining future aflatoxin contamination risk scenarios for corn in Southern Georgia, USA using spatio-temporal modelling and future climate simulations
title_full	Determining future aflatoxin contamination risk scenarios for corn in Southern Georgia, USA using spatio-temporal modelling and future climate simulations
title_fullStr	Determining future aflatoxin contamination risk scenarios for corn in Southern Georgia, USA using spatio-temporal modelling and future climate simulations
title_full_unstemmed	Determining future aflatoxin contamination risk scenarios for corn in Southern Georgia, USA using spatio-temporal modelling and future climate simulations
title_sort	determining future aflatoxin contamination risk scenarios for corn in southern georgia, usa using spatio-temporal modelling and future climate simulations
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/4992c34fd33a4958befb2dfdfaa0ece7
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Determining future aflatoxin contamination risk scenarios for corn in Southern Georgia, USA using spatio-temporal modelling and future climate simulations

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