Effect of vaccines and antivirals during the major 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic wave in Norway--and the influence of vaccination timing.

To evaluate the impact of mass vaccination with adjuvanted vaccines (eventually 40% population coverage) and antivirals during the 2009 influenza pandemic in Norway, we fitted an age-structured SEIR model using data on vaccinations and sales of antivirals in 2009/10 in Norway to Norwegian ILI survei...

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Autores principales:	Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio, Bjørn G Iversen, Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2012
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/49d191d8c84b45778a95a6a75f441f1a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:49d191d8c84b45778a95a6a75f441f1a2021-11-18T07:30:37ZEffect of vaccines and antivirals during the major 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic wave in Norway--and the influence of vaccination timing.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0030018https://doaj.org/article/49d191d8c84b45778a95a6a75f441f1a2012-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/22253862/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203To evaluate the impact of mass vaccination with adjuvanted vaccines (eventually 40% population coverage) and antivirals during the 2009 influenza pandemic in Norway, we fitted an age-structured SEIR model using data on vaccinations and sales of antivirals in 2009/10 in Norway to Norwegian ILI surveillance data from 5 October 2009 to 4 January 2010. We estimate a clinical attack rate of approximately 30% (28.7-29.8%), with highest disease rates among children 0-14 years (43-44%). Vaccination started in week 43 and came too late to have a strong influence on the pandemic in Norway. Our results indicate that the countermeasures prevented approximately 11-12% of potential cases relative to an unmitigated pandemic. Vaccination was found responsible for roughly 3 in 4 of the avoided infections. An estimated 50% reduction in the clinical attack rate would have resulted from vaccination alone, had the campaign started 6 weeks earlier. Had vaccination been prioritized for children first, the intervention should have commenced approximately 5 weeks earlier in order to achieve the same 50% reduction. In comparison, we estimate that a non-adjuvanted vaccination program should have started 8 weeks earlier to lower the clinical attack rate by 50%. In conclusion, vaccination timing was a critical factor in relation to the spread of the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza. Our results also corroborate the central role of children for the transmission of A(H1N1) pandemic influenza.Birgitte Freiesleben de BlasioBjørn G IversenGianpaolo Scalia TombaPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 7, Iss 1, p e30018 (2012)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio Bjørn G Iversen Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba Effect of vaccines and antivirals during the major 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic wave in Norway--and the influence of vaccination timing.
description	To evaluate the impact of mass vaccination with adjuvanted vaccines (eventually 40% population coverage) and antivirals during the 2009 influenza pandemic in Norway, we fitted an age-structured SEIR model using data on vaccinations and sales of antivirals in 2009/10 in Norway to Norwegian ILI surveillance data from 5 October 2009 to 4 January 2010. We estimate a clinical attack rate of approximately 30% (28.7-29.8%), with highest disease rates among children 0-14 years (43-44%). Vaccination started in week 43 and came too late to have a strong influence on the pandemic in Norway. Our results indicate that the countermeasures prevented approximately 11-12% of potential cases relative to an unmitigated pandemic. Vaccination was found responsible for roughly 3 in 4 of the avoided infections. An estimated 50% reduction in the clinical attack rate would have resulted from vaccination alone, had the campaign started 6 weeks earlier. Had vaccination been prioritized for children first, the intervention should have commenced approximately 5 weeks earlier in order to achieve the same 50% reduction. In comparison, we estimate that a non-adjuvanted vaccination program should have started 8 weeks earlier to lower the clinical attack rate by 50%. In conclusion, vaccination timing was a critical factor in relation to the spread of the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza. Our results also corroborate the central role of children for the transmission of A(H1N1) pandemic influenza.
format	article
author	Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio Bjørn G Iversen Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba
author_facet	Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio Bjørn G Iversen Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba
author_sort	Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio
title	Effect of vaccines and antivirals during the major 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic wave in Norway--and the influence of vaccination timing.
title_short	Effect of vaccines and antivirals during the major 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic wave in Norway--and the influence of vaccination timing.
title_full	Effect of vaccines and antivirals during the major 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic wave in Norway--and the influence of vaccination timing.
title_fullStr	Effect of vaccines and antivirals during the major 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic wave in Norway--and the influence of vaccination timing.
title_full_unstemmed	Effect of vaccines and antivirals during the major 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic wave in Norway--and the influence of vaccination timing.
title_sort	effect of vaccines and antivirals during the major 2009 a(h1n1) pandemic wave in norway--and the influence of vaccination timing.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2012
url	https://doaj.org/article/49d191d8c84b45778a95a6a75f441f1a
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Effect of vaccines and antivirals during the major 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic wave in Norway--and the influence of vaccination timing.

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