Impact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati

The Pacific region consists of numerous Small Island Developing States (SIDS), one of the most vulnerable to flooding caused by compound effects of sea level rise (SLR) and storms. Nevertheless, individual studies regarding the impact assessment for SIDS, such as the low-lying Kiribati, remain scarc...

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Autores principales:	Audrius Sabūnas, Takuya Miyashita, Nobuki Fukui, Tomoya Shimura, Nobuhito Mori
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:	Kiribati sea level rise population displacement social impact of climate change inundation exposed population Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) TA1-2040 City planning HT165.5-169.9
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4a6517862b89449ba431266a40c19fa4
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4a6517862b89449ba431266a40c19fa42021-11-10T07:32:21ZImpact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati2297-336210.3389/fbuil.2021.752599https://doaj.org/article/4a6517862b89449ba431266a40c19fa42021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fbuil.2021.752599/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2297-3362The Pacific region consists of numerous Small Island Developing States (SIDS), one of the most vulnerable to flooding caused by compound effects of sea level rise (SLR) and storms. Nevertheless, individual studies regarding the impact assessment for SIDS, such as the low-lying Kiribati, remain scarce. This study assessed the impact of climate change-induced storm surge and SLR compounding effects on Tarawa, the most populous atoll of Kiribati, the largest coral atoll nation. It projected the impact using a combined dynamic surge and SLR model based on the IPCC AR5 RCP scenarios and 1/100 and 1/50 years return period storm events. This approach allows estimating the inundation scope and the consecutive exposed population by the end of the 21st century. The results of this study show that the pace of SLR is pivotal for Tarawa, as the sea level rise alone can claim more than 50% of the territory and pose a threat to over 60% of the population under the most intense greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Furthermore, most coasts on the lagoon side are particularly vulnerable. In contrast, the contribution of extreme events is generally minimal due to low wind speeds and the absence of tropical cyclones (TC). Despite this, it is clear the compound effects are critical and may inescapably bring drastic changes to the atoll nations by the end of this century. The impact assessment in this study draws attention to the social impact of climate change on SIDS, most notably atoll islands, and evaluates their adaptation potential.Audrius SabūnasTakuya MiyashitaNobuki FukuiTomoya ShimuraNobuhito MoriNobuhito MoriFrontiers Media S.A.articleKiribatisea level risepopulation displacementsocial impact of climate changeinundationexposed populationEngineering (General). Civil engineering (General)TA1-2040City planningHT165.5-169.9ENFrontiers in Built Environment, Vol 7 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Kiribati sea level rise population displacement social impact of climate change inundation exposed population Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) TA1-2040 City planning HT165.5-169.9
spellingShingle	Kiribati sea level rise population displacement social impact of climate change inundation exposed population Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) TA1-2040 City planning HT165.5-169.9 Audrius Sabūnas Takuya Miyashita Nobuki Fukui Tomoya Shimura Nobuhito Mori Nobuhito Mori Impact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati
description	The Pacific region consists of numerous Small Island Developing States (SIDS), one of the most vulnerable to flooding caused by compound effects of sea level rise (SLR) and storms. Nevertheless, individual studies regarding the impact assessment for SIDS, such as the low-lying Kiribati, remain scarce. This study assessed the impact of climate change-induced storm surge and SLR compounding effects on Tarawa, the most populous atoll of Kiribati, the largest coral atoll nation. It projected the impact using a combined dynamic surge and SLR model based on the IPCC AR5 RCP scenarios and 1/100 and 1/50 years return period storm events. This approach allows estimating the inundation scope and the consecutive exposed population by the end of the 21st century. The results of this study show that the pace of SLR is pivotal for Tarawa, as the sea level rise alone can claim more than 50% of the territory and pose a threat to over 60% of the population under the most intense greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Furthermore, most coasts on the lagoon side are particularly vulnerable. In contrast, the contribution of extreme events is generally minimal due to low wind speeds and the absence of tropical cyclones (TC). Despite this, it is clear the compound effects are critical and may inescapably bring drastic changes to the atoll nations by the end of this century. The impact assessment in this study draws attention to the social impact of climate change on SIDS, most notably atoll islands, and evaluates their adaptation potential.
format	article
author	Audrius Sabūnas Takuya Miyashita Nobuki Fukui Tomoya Shimura Nobuhito Mori Nobuhito Mori
author_facet	Audrius Sabūnas Takuya Miyashita Nobuki Fukui Tomoya Shimura Nobuhito Mori Nobuhito Mori
author_sort	Audrius Sabūnas
title	Impact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati
title_short	Impact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati
title_full	Impact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati
title_fullStr	Impact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati
title_full_unstemmed	Impact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati
title_sort	impact assessment of storm surge and climate change-enhanced sea level rise on atoll nations: a case study of the tarawa atoll, kiribati
publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/4a6517862b89449ba431266a40c19fa4
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Impact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati

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