Drivers of future water demand in Sydney, Australia: examining the contribution from population and climate change

We examine the relative impact of population increases and climate change in affecting future water demand for Sydney, Australia. We use the Weather and Research Forecasting model, a water demand model and a stochastic weather generator to downscale four different global climate models for the prese...

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Autores principales:	Adrian Barker, Andrew Pitman, Jason P. Evans, Frank Spaninks, Luther Uthayakumaran
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	climate change population growth stochastic weather generation urban water consumption Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4ae3126a38da4bfc8cb687bd6bd33165
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4ae3126a38da4bfc8cb687bd6bd331652021-11-05T18:52:23ZDrivers of future water demand in Sydney, Australia: examining the contribution from population and climate change2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2020.230https://doaj.org/article/4ae3126a38da4bfc8cb687bd6bd331652021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/4/1168https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354We examine the relative impact of population increases and climate change in affecting future water demand for Sydney, Australia. We use the Weather and Research Forecasting model, a water demand model and a stochastic weather generator to downscale four different global climate models for the present (1990–2010), near (2020–2040) and far (2060–2080) future. Projected climate change would increase median metered consumption, at 2019/2020 population levels, from around 484 GL under present climate to 484–494 GL under near future climate and 495–505 GL under far future climate. Population changes from 2014/2015 to 2024/2025 have a far larger impact, increasing median metered consumption from 457 to 508 GL under the present climate, 463 to 515 GL under near future climate and from 471 to 524 GL under far future climate. The projected changes in consumption are sensitive to the climate model used. Overall, while population growth is a far stronger driver of increasing water demand than climate change for Sydney, both act in parallel to reduce the time it would take for all storage to be exhausted. Failing to account for climate change would therefore lead to overconfidence in the reliability of Sydney's water supply. HIGHLIGHTS This paper combines an urban water consumption model, regional climate models and a stochastic weather generator to generate probabilistic consumption forecasts.; This paper analyses the effect of climate change on urban water consumption.; This paper compares the relative effect of climate change and population on urban water consumption.; This paper analyses the effect of dwelling type on urban water consumption.; This paper compares the statistical properties of weather variables from different regional climate models.;Adrian BarkerAndrew PitmanJason P. EvansFrank SpaninksLuther UthayakumaranIWA Publishingarticleclimate changepopulation growthstochastic weather generationurban water consumptionEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 4, Pp 1168-1183 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate change population growth stochastic weather generation urban water consumption Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	climate change population growth stochastic weather generation urban water consumption Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Adrian Barker Andrew Pitman Jason P. Evans Frank Spaninks Luther Uthayakumaran Drivers of future water demand in Sydney, Australia: examining the contribution from population and climate change
description	We examine the relative impact of population increases and climate change in affecting future water demand for Sydney, Australia. We use the Weather and Research Forecasting model, a water demand model and a stochastic weather generator to downscale four different global climate models for the present (1990–2010), near (2020–2040) and far (2060–2080) future. Projected climate change would increase median metered consumption, at 2019/2020 population levels, from around 484 GL under present climate to 484–494 GL under near future climate and 495–505 GL under far future climate. Population changes from 2014/2015 to 2024/2025 have a far larger impact, increasing median metered consumption from 457 to 508 GL under the present climate, 463 to 515 GL under near future climate and from 471 to 524 GL under far future climate. The projected changes in consumption are sensitive to the climate model used. Overall, while population growth is a far stronger driver of increasing water demand than climate change for Sydney, both act in parallel to reduce the time it would take for all storage to be exhausted. Failing to account for climate change would therefore lead to overconfidence in the reliability of Sydney's water supply. HIGHLIGHTS This paper combines an urban water consumption model, regional climate models and a stochastic weather generator to generate probabilistic consumption forecasts.; This paper analyses the effect of climate change on urban water consumption.; This paper compares the relative effect of climate change and population on urban water consumption.; This paper analyses the effect of dwelling type on urban water consumption.; This paper compares the statistical properties of weather variables from different regional climate models.;
format	article
author	Adrian Barker Andrew Pitman Jason P. Evans Frank Spaninks Luther Uthayakumaran
author_facet	Adrian Barker Andrew Pitman Jason P. Evans Frank Spaninks Luther Uthayakumaran
author_sort	Adrian Barker
title	Drivers of future water demand in Sydney, Australia: examining the contribution from population and climate change
title_short	Drivers of future water demand in Sydney, Australia: examining the contribution from population and climate change
title_full	Drivers of future water demand in Sydney, Australia: examining the contribution from population and climate change
title_fullStr	Drivers of future water demand in Sydney, Australia: examining the contribution from population and climate change
title_full_unstemmed	Drivers of future water demand in Sydney, Australia: examining the contribution from population and climate change
title_sort	drivers of future water demand in sydney, australia: examining the contribution from population and climate change
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/4ae3126a38da4bfc8cb687bd6bd33165
work_keys_str_mv	AT adrianbarker driversoffuturewaterdemandinsydneyaustraliaexaminingthecontributionfrompopulationandclimatechange AT andrewpitman driversoffuturewaterdemandinsydneyaustraliaexaminingthecontributionfrompopulationandclimatechange AT jasonpevans driversoffuturewaterdemandinsydneyaustraliaexaminingthecontributionfrompopulationandclimatechange AT frankspaninks driversoffuturewaterdemandinsydneyaustraliaexaminingthecontributionfrompopulationandclimatechange AT lutheruthayakumaran driversoffuturewaterdemandinsydneyaustraliaexaminingthecontributionfrompopulationandclimatechange
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Drivers of future water demand in Sydney, Australia: examining the contribution from population and climate change

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