Plateaus, rebounds and the effects of individual behaviours in epidemics

Abstract Plateaus and rebounds of various epidemiological indicators are widely reported in Covid-19 pandemics studies but have not been explained so far. Here, we address this problem and explain the appearance of these patterns. We start with an empirical study of an original dataset obtained from...

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Autores principales:	Henri Berestycki, Benoît Desjardins, Bruno Heintz, Jean-Marc Oury
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4af36fe2f82947d6ac4062f23076ac63
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4af36fe2f82947d6ac4062f23076ac632021-12-02T17:24:12ZPlateaus, rebounds and the effects of individual behaviours in epidemics10.1038/s41598-021-97077-x2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/4af36fe2f82947d6ac4062f23076ac632021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97077-xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Plateaus and rebounds of various epidemiological indicators are widely reported in Covid-19 pandemics studies but have not been explained so far. Here, we address this problem and explain the appearance of these patterns. We start with an empirical study of an original dataset obtained from highly precise measurements of SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater over nine months in several treatment plants around the Thau lagoon in France. Among various features, we observe that the concentration displays plateaus at different dates in various locations but at the same level. In order to understand these facts, we introduce a new mathematical model that takes into account the heterogeneity and the natural variability of individual behaviours. Our model shows that the distribution of risky behaviours appears as the key ingredient for understanding the observed temporal patterns of epidemics.Henri BerestyckiBenoît DesjardinsBruno HeintzJean-Marc OuryNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Henri Berestycki Benoît Desjardins Bruno Heintz Jean-Marc Oury Plateaus, rebounds and the effects of individual behaviours in epidemics
description	Abstract Plateaus and rebounds of various epidemiological indicators are widely reported in Covid-19 pandemics studies but have not been explained so far. Here, we address this problem and explain the appearance of these patterns. We start with an empirical study of an original dataset obtained from highly precise measurements of SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater over nine months in several treatment plants around the Thau lagoon in France. Among various features, we observe that the concentration displays plateaus at different dates in various locations but at the same level. In order to understand these facts, we introduce a new mathematical model that takes into account the heterogeneity and the natural variability of individual behaviours. Our model shows that the distribution of risky behaviours appears as the key ingredient for understanding the observed temporal patterns of epidemics.
format	article
author	Henri Berestycki Benoît Desjardins Bruno Heintz Jean-Marc Oury
author_facet	Henri Berestycki Benoît Desjardins Bruno Heintz Jean-Marc Oury
author_sort	Henri Berestycki
title	Plateaus, rebounds and the effects of individual behaviours in epidemics
title_short	Plateaus, rebounds and the effects of individual behaviours in epidemics
title_full	Plateaus, rebounds and the effects of individual behaviours in epidemics
title_fullStr	Plateaus, rebounds and the effects of individual behaviours in epidemics
title_full_unstemmed	Plateaus, rebounds and the effects of individual behaviours in epidemics
title_sort	plateaus, rebounds and the effects of individual behaviours in epidemics
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/4af36fe2f82947d6ac4062f23076ac63
work_keys_str_mv	AT henriberestycki plateausreboundsandtheeffectsofindividualbehavioursinepidemics AT benoitdesjardins plateausreboundsandtheeffectsofindividualbehavioursinepidemics AT brunoheintz plateausreboundsandtheeffectsofindividualbehavioursinepidemics AT jeanmarcoury plateausreboundsandtheeffectsofindividualbehavioursinepidemics
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Plateaus, rebounds and the effects of individual behaviours in epidemics

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