Population level differences in overwintering survivorship of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus): A caution on extrapolating climate sensitivities along latitudinal gradients.

Winter mortality can strongly affect the population dynamics of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) near poleward range limits. We simulated winter in the lab to test the effects of temperature, salinity, and estuary of origin on blue crab winter mortality over three years using a broad range of crab s...

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Autores principales:	Adelle I Molina, Robert M Cerrato, Janet A Nye
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4b5007a00d074f2ba93a22aa852ff3fd
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4b5007a00d074f2ba93a22aa852ff3fd2021-12-02T20:14:26ZPopulation level differences in overwintering survivorship of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus): A caution on extrapolating climate sensitivities along latitudinal gradients.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0257569https://doaj.org/article/4b5007a00d074f2ba93a22aa852ff3fd2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0257569https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Winter mortality can strongly affect the population dynamics of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) near poleward range limits. We simulated winter in the lab to test the effects of temperature, salinity, and estuary of origin on blue crab winter mortality over three years using a broad range of crab sizes from both Great South Bay and Chesapeake Bay. We fit accelerated failure time models to our data and to data from prior blue crab winter mortality experiments, illustrating that, in a widely distributed, commercially valuable marine decapod, temperature, salinity, size, estuary of origin, and winter duration were important predictors of winter mortality. Furthermore, our results suggest that extrapolation of a Chesapeake Bay based survivorship model to crabs from New York estuaries yielded poor fits. As such, the severity and duration of winter can impact northern blue crab populations differently along latitudinal gradients. In the context of climate change, future warming could possibility confer a benefit to crab populations near the range edge that are currently limited by temperature-induced winter mortality by shifting their range edge poleward, but care must be taken in generalizing from models that are developed based on populations from one part of the range to populations near the edges, especially for species that occupy large geographical areas.Adelle I MolinaRobert M CerratoJanet A NyePublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 9, p e0257569 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Adelle I Molina Robert M Cerrato Janet A Nye Population level differences in overwintering survivorship of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus): A caution on extrapolating climate sensitivities along latitudinal gradients.
description	Winter mortality can strongly affect the population dynamics of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) near poleward range limits. We simulated winter in the lab to test the effects of temperature, salinity, and estuary of origin on blue crab winter mortality over three years using a broad range of crab sizes from both Great South Bay and Chesapeake Bay. We fit accelerated failure time models to our data and to data from prior blue crab winter mortality experiments, illustrating that, in a widely distributed, commercially valuable marine decapod, temperature, salinity, size, estuary of origin, and winter duration were important predictors of winter mortality. Furthermore, our results suggest that extrapolation of a Chesapeake Bay based survivorship model to crabs from New York estuaries yielded poor fits. As such, the severity and duration of winter can impact northern blue crab populations differently along latitudinal gradients. In the context of climate change, future warming could possibility confer a benefit to crab populations near the range edge that are currently limited by temperature-induced winter mortality by shifting their range edge poleward, but care must be taken in generalizing from models that are developed based on populations from one part of the range to populations near the edges, especially for species that occupy large geographical areas.
format	article
author	Adelle I Molina Robert M Cerrato Janet A Nye
author_facet	Adelle I Molina Robert M Cerrato Janet A Nye
author_sort	Adelle I Molina
title	Population level differences in overwintering survivorship of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus): A caution on extrapolating climate sensitivities along latitudinal gradients.
title_short	Population level differences in overwintering survivorship of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus): A caution on extrapolating climate sensitivities along latitudinal gradients.
title_full	Population level differences in overwintering survivorship of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus): A caution on extrapolating climate sensitivities along latitudinal gradients.
title_fullStr	Population level differences in overwintering survivorship of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus): A caution on extrapolating climate sensitivities along latitudinal gradients.
title_full_unstemmed	Population level differences in overwintering survivorship of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus): A caution on extrapolating climate sensitivities along latitudinal gradients.
title_sort	population level differences in overwintering survivorship of blue crabs (callinectes sapidus): a caution on extrapolating climate sensitivities along latitudinal gradients.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/4b5007a00d074f2ba93a22aa852ff3fd
work_keys_str_mv	AT adelleimolina populationleveldifferencesinoverwinteringsurvivorshipofbluecrabscallinectessapidusacautiononextrapolatingclimatesensitivitiesalonglatitudinalgradients AT robertmcerrato populationleveldifferencesinoverwinteringsurvivorshipofbluecrabscallinectessapidusacautiononextrapolatingclimatesensitivitiesalonglatitudinalgradients AT janetanye populationleveldifferencesinoverwinteringsurvivorshipofbluecrabscallinectessapidusacautiononextrapolatingclimatesensitivitiesalonglatitudinalgradients
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Population level differences in overwintering survivorship of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus): A caution on extrapolating climate sensitivities along latitudinal gradients.

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