A newly developed and externally validated non-clinical score accurately predicts 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the general adult population

Abstract Inclusion of clinical parameters limits the application of most cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction models to clinical settings. We developed and externally validated a non-clinical CVD risk score with a clinical extension and compared the performance to established CVD risk scores. We...

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Autores principales:	Catarina Schiborn, Tilman Kühn, Kristin Mühlenbruch, Olga Kuxhaus, Cornelia Weikert, Andreas Fritsche, Rudolf Kaaks, Matthias B. Schulze
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4b8f180ee28a4b43a2f861d78d22db1b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4b8f180ee28a4b43a2f861d78d22db1b2021-12-02T18:37:08ZA newly developed and externally validated non-clinical score accurately predicts 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the general adult population10.1038/s41598-021-99103-42045-2322https://doaj.org/article/4b8f180ee28a4b43a2f861d78d22db1b2021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-99103-4https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Inclusion of clinical parameters limits the application of most cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction models to clinical settings. We developed and externally validated a non-clinical CVD risk score with a clinical extension and compared the performance to established CVD risk scores. We derived the scores predicting CVD (non-fatal and fatal myocardial infarction and stroke) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam cohort (n = 25,992, cases = 683) using competing risk models and externally validated in EPIC-Heidelberg (n = 23,529, cases = 692). Performance was assessed by C-indices, calibration plots, and expected-to-observed ratios and compared to a non-clinical model, the Pooled Cohort Equation, Framingham CVD Risk Scores (FRS), PROCAM scores, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). Our non-clinical score included age, gender, waist circumference, smoking, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, CVD family history, and dietary parameters. C-indices consistently indicated good discrimination (EPIC-Potsdam 0.786, EPIC-Heidelberg 0.762) comparable to established clinical scores (thereof highest, FRS: EPIC-Potsdam 0.781, EPIC-Heidelberg 0.764). Additional clinical parameters slightly improved discrimination (EPIC-Potsdam 0.796, EPIC-Heidelberg 0.769). Calibration plots indicated very good calibration with minor overestimation in the highest decile of predicted risk. The developed non-clinical 10-year CVD risk score shows comparable discrimination to established clinical scores, allowing assessment of individual CVD risk in physician-independent settings.Catarina SchibornTilman KühnKristin MühlenbruchOlga KuxhausCornelia WeikertAndreas FritscheRudolf KaaksMatthias B. SchulzeNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Catarina Schiborn Tilman Kühn Kristin Mühlenbruch Olga Kuxhaus Cornelia Weikert Andreas Fritsche Rudolf Kaaks Matthias B. Schulze A newly developed and externally validated non-clinical score accurately predicts 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the general adult population
description	Abstract Inclusion of clinical parameters limits the application of most cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction models to clinical settings. We developed and externally validated a non-clinical CVD risk score with a clinical extension and compared the performance to established CVD risk scores. We derived the scores predicting CVD (non-fatal and fatal myocardial infarction and stroke) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam cohort (n = 25,992, cases = 683) using competing risk models and externally validated in EPIC-Heidelberg (n = 23,529, cases = 692). Performance was assessed by C-indices, calibration plots, and expected-to-observed ratios and compared to a non-clinical model, the Pooled Cohort Equation, Framingham CVD Risk Scores (FRS), PROCAM scores, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). Our non-clinical score included age, gender, waist circumference, smoking, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, CVD family history, and dietary parameters. C-indices consistently indicated good discrimination (EPIC-Potsdam 0.786, EPIC-Heidelberg 0.762) comparable to established clinical scores (thereof highest, FRS: EPIC-Potsdam 0.781, EPIC-Heidelberg 0.764). Additional clinical parameters slightly improved discrimination (EPIC-Potsdam 0.796, EPIC-Heidelberg 0.769). Calibration plots indicated very good calibration with minor overestimation in the highest decile of predicted risk. The developed non-clinical 10-year CVD risk score shows comparable discrimination to established clinical scores, allowing assessment of individual CVD risk in physician-independent settings.
format	article
author	Catarina Schiborn Tilman Kühn Kristin Mühlenbruch Olga Kuxhaus Cornelia Weikert Andreas Fritsche Rudolf Kaaks Matthias B. Schulze
author_facet	Catarina Schiborn Tilman Kühn Kristin Mühlenbruch Olga Kuxhaus Cornelia Weikert Andreas Fritsche Rudolf Kaaks Matthias B. Schulze
author_sort	Catarina Schiborn
title	A newly developed and externally validated non-clinical score accurately predicts 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the general adult population
title_short	A newly developed and externally validated non-clinical score accurately predicts 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the general adult population
title_full	A newly developed and externally validated non-clinical score accurately predicts 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the general adult population
title_fullStr	A newly developed and externally validated non-clinical score accurately predicts 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the general adult population
title_full_unstemmed	A newly developed and externally validated non-clinical score accurately predicts 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the general adult population
title_sort	newly developed and externally validated non-clinical score accurately predicts 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the general adult population
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/4b8f180ee28a4b43a2f861d78d22db1b
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A newly developed and externally validated non-clinical score accurately predicts 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the general adult population

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