Conservation planning with uncertain climate change projections.

Climate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide, but conservation responses are constrained by considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude, rate and ecological consequences of expected climate change. Here we propose a framework to account for several sources of uncertainty in conservation p...

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Autores principales:	Heini Kujala, Atte Moilanen, Miguel B Araújo, Mar Cabeza
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4bc8742ee813424a8deb0d58345abb8e
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4bc8742ee813424a8deb0d58345abb8e2021-11-18T07:58:44ZConservation planning with uncertain climate change projections.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0053315https://doaj.org/article/4bc8742ee813424a8deb0d58345abb8e2013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23405068/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Climate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide, but conservation responses are constrained by considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude, rate and ecological consequences of expected climate change. Here we propose a framework to account for several sources of uncertainty in conservation prioritization. Within this framework we account for uncertainties arising from (i) species distributions that shift following climate change, (ii) basic connectivity requirements of species, (iii) alternative climate change scenarios and their impacts, (iv) in the modelling of species distributions, and (v) different levels of confidence about present and future. When future impacts of climate change are uncertain, robustness of decision-making can be improved by quantifying the risks and trade-offs associated with climate scenarios. Sensible prioritization that accounts simultaneously for the present and potential future distributions of species is achievable without overly jeopardising present-day conservation values. Doing so requires systematic treatment of uncertainties and testing of the sensitivity of results to assumptions about climate. We illustrate the proposed framework by identifying priority areas for amphibians and reptiles in Europe.Heini KujalaAtte MoilanenMiguel B AraújoMar CabezaPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 2, p e53315 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Heini Kujala Atte Moilanen Miguel B Araújo Mar Cabeza Conservation planning with uncertain climate change projections.
description	Climate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide, but conservation responses are constrained by considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude, rate and ecological consequences of expected climate change. Here we propose a framework to account for several sources of uncertainty in conservation prioritization. Within this framework we account for uncertainties arising from (i) species distributions that shift following climate change, (ii) basic connectivity requirements of species, (iii) alternative climate change scenarios and their impacts, (iv) in the modelling of species distributions, and (v) different levels of confidence about present and future. When future impacts of climate change are uncertain, robustness of decision-making can be improved by quantifying the risks and trade-offs associated with climate scenarios. Sensible prioritization that accounts simultaneously for the present and potential future distributions of species is achievable without overly jeopardising present-day conservation values. Doing so requires systematic treatment of uncertainties and testing of the sensitivity of results to assumptions about climate. We illustrate the proposed framework by identifying priority areas for amphibians and reptiles in Europe.
format	article
author	Heini Kujala Atte Moilanen Miguel B Araújo Mar Cabeza
author_facet	Heini Kujala Atte Moilanen Miguel B Araújo Mar Cabeza
author_sort	Heini Kujala
title	Conservation planning with uncertain climate change projections.
title_short	Conservation planning with uncertain climate change projections.
title_full	Conservation planning with uncertain climate change projections.
title_fullStr	Conservation planning with uncertain climate change projections.
title_full_unstemmed	Conservation planning with uncertain climate change projections.
title_sort	conservation planning with uncertain climate change projections.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/4bc8742ee813424a8deb0d58345abb8e
work_keys_str_mv	AT heinikujala conservationplanningwithuncertainclimatechangeprojections AT attemoilanen conservationplanningwithuncertainclimatechangeprojections AT miguelbaraujo conservationplanningwithuncertainclimatechangeprojections AT marcabeza conservationplanningwithuncertainclimatechangeprojections
_version_	1718422662497173504

Conservation planning with uncertain climate change projections.

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