Modeling seasonal variations of extreme rainfall on different timescales in Germany

<p>We model monthly precipitation maxima at 132 stations in Germany for a wide range of durations from 1 min to about 6 d using a duration-dependent generalized extreme value (d-GEV) distribution with monthly varying parameters. This allows for the estimation of both monthly and annual intensi...

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Autores principales:	J. Ulrich, F. S. Fauer, H. W. Rust
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Copernicus Publications 2021
Materias:	Technology T Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4c1e8fe4b2b04d25b8859bb4f40d6bc3
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4c1e8fe4b2b04d25b8859bb4f40d6bc32021-12-02T12:56:14ZModeling seasonal variations of extreme rainfall on different timescales in Germany10.5194/hess-25-6133-20211027-56061607-7938https://doaj.org/article/4c1e8fe4b2b04d25b8859bb4f40d6bc32021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://hess.copernicus.org/articles/25/6133/2021/hess-25-6133-2021.pdfhttps://doaj.org/toc/1027-5606https://doaj.org/toc/1607-7938<p>We model monthly precipitation maxima at 132 stations in Germany for a wide range of durations from 1 min to about 6 d using a duration-dependent generalized extreme value (d-GEV) distribution with monthly varying parameters. This allows for the estimation of both monthly and annual intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves: (1) the monthly IDF curves of the summer months exhibit a more rapid decrease of intensity with duration, as well as higher intensities for short durations than the IDF curves for the remaining months of the year. Thus, when short convective extreme events occur, they are very likely to occur in summer everywhere in Germany. In contrast, extreme events with a duration of several hours up to about 1 d are conditionally more likely to occur within a longer period or even spread throughout the whole year, depending on the station. There are major differences within Germany with respect to the months in which long-lasting stratiform extreme events are more likely to occur. At some stations the IDF curves (for a given quantile) for different months intersect. The meteorological interpretation of this intersection is that the season in which a certain extreme event is most likely to occur shifts from summer towards autumn or winter for longer durations. (2) We compare the annual IDF curves resulting from the monthly model with those estimated conventionally, that is, based on modeling annual maxima. We find that adding information in the form of smooth variations during the year leads to a considerable reduction of uncertainties. We additionally observe that at some stations, the annual IDF curves obtained by modeling monthly maxima deviate from the assumption of scale invariance, resulting in a flattening in the slope of the IDF curves for long durations.</p>J. UlrichF. S. FauerH. W. RustCopernicus PublicationsarticleTechnologyTEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Geography. Anthropology. RecreationGEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350ENHydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol 25, Pp 6133-6149 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Technology T Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	Technology T Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 J. Ulrich F. S. Fauer H. W. Rust Modeling seasonal variations of extreme rainfall on different timescales in Germany
description	<p>We model monthly precipitation maxima at 132 stations in Germany for a wide range of durations from 1 min to about 6 d using a duration-dependent generalized extreme value (d-GEV) distribution with monthly varying parameters. This allows for the estimation of both monthly and annual intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves: (1) the monthly IDF curves of the summer months exhibit a more rapid decrease of intensity with duration, as well as higher intensities for short durations than the IDF curves for the remaining months of the year. Thus, when short convective extreme events occur, they are very likely to occur in summer everywhere in Germany. In contrast, extreme events with a duration of several hours up to about 1 d are conditionally more likely to occur within a longer period or even spread throughout the whole year, depending on the station. There are major differences within Germany with respect to the months in which long-lasting stratiform extreme events are more likely to occur. At some stations the IDF curves (for a given quantile) for different months intersect. The meteorological interpretation of this intersection is that the season in which a certain extreme event is most likely to occur shifts from summer towards autumn or winter for longer durations. (2) We compare the annual IDF curves resulting from the monthly model with those estimated conventionally, that is, based on modeling annual maxima. We find that adding information in the form of smooth variations during the year leads to a considerable reduction of uncertainties. We additionally observe that at some stations, the annual IDF curves obtained by modeling monthly maxima deviate from the assumption of scale invariance, resulting in a flattening in the slope of the IDF curves for long durations.</p>
format	article
author	J. Ulrich F. S. Fauer H. W. Rust
author_facet	J. Ulrich F. S. Fauer H. W. Rust
author_sort	J. Ulrich
title	Modeling seasonal variations of extreme rainfall on different timescales in Germany
title_short	Modeling seasonal variations of extreme rainfall on different timescales in Germany
title_full	Modeling seasonal variations of extreme rainfall on different timescales in Germany
title_fullStr	Modeling seasonal variations of extreme rainfall on different timescales in Germany
title_full_unstemmed	Modeling seasonal variations of extreme rainfall on different timescales in Germany
title_sort	modeling seasonal variations of extreme rainfall on different timescales in germany
publisher	Copernicus Publications
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/4c1e8fe4b2b04d25b8859bb4f40d6bc3
work_keys_str_mv	AT julrich modelingseasonalvariationsofextremerainfallondifferenttimescalesingermany AT fsfauer modelingseasonalvariationsofextremerainfallondifferenttimescalesingermany AT hwrust modelingseasonalvariationsofextremerainfallondifferenttimescalesingermany
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Modeling seasonal variations of extreme rainfall on different timescales in Germany

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