Prediction of total landslide volume in watershed scale under rainfall events using a probability model

This study established a probability model based on the landslide spatial and size probabilities to predict the possible volume and locations of landslides in watershed scale under rainfall events. First, we assessed the landslide spatial probability using a random forest landslide susceptibility mo...

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Autores principales:	Wu Chun-Yi, Chou Po-Kai
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	De Gruyter 2021
Materias:	landslide probability model uchiogi empirical model total landslide volume standard deviational ellipse Geology QE1-996.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4cb271c64fe442bcb66021e2c121c1d8
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4cb271c64fe442bcb66021e2c121c1d82021-12-05T14:10:49ZPrediction of total landslide volume in watershed scale under rainfall events using a probability model2391-544710.1515/geo-2020-0284https://doaj.org/article/4cb271c64fe442bcb66021e2c121c1d82021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2020-0284https://doaj.org/toc/2391-5447This study established a probability model based on the landslide spatial and size probabilities to predict the possible volume and locations of landslides in watershed scale under rainfall events. First, we assessed the landslide spatial probability using a random forest landslide susceptibility model including intrinsic causative factors and extrinsic rainfall factors. Second, we calculated the landslide volume probability using the Pearson type V distribution. Lastly, these probabilities were joined to predict possible landslide volume and locations in the study area, the Taipei Water Source Domain, under rainfall events. The possible total landslide volume in the watershed changed from 1.7 million cubic meter under the event with 2-year recurrence interval to 18.2 million cubic meter under the event with 20-year recurrence interval. Approximately 62% of the total landslide volume triggered by the rainfall events was concentrated in 20% of the slope units. As the recurrence interval of the events increased, the slope units with large landslide volume tended to concentrate in the midstream of Nanshi River subwatershed. The results indicated the probability model posited can be used not only to predict total landslide volume in watershed scale, but also to determine the possible locations of the slope units with large landslide volume.Wu Chun-YiChou Po-KaiDe Gruyterarticlelandslide probability modeluchiogi empirical modeltotal landslide volumestandard deviational ellipseGeologyQE1-996.5ENOpen Geosciences, Vol 13, Iss 1, Pp 944-962 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	landslide probability model uchiogi empirical model total landslide volume standard deviational ellipse Geology QE1-996.5
spellingShingle	landslide probability model uchiogi empirical model total landslide volume standard deviational ellipse Geology QE1-996.5 Wu Chun-Yi Chou Po-Kai Prediction of total landslide volume in watershed scale under rainfall events using a probability model
description	This study established a probability model based on the landslide spatial and size probabilities to predict the possible volume and locations of landslides in watershed scale under rainfall events. First, we assessed the landslide spatial probability using a random forest landslide susceptibility model including intrinsic causative factors and extrinsic rainfall factors. Second, we calculated the landslide volume probability using the Pearson type V distribution. Lastly, these probabilities were joined to predict possible landslide volume and locations in the study area, the Taipei Water Source Domain, under rainfall events. The possible total landslide volume in the watershed changed from 1.7 million cubic meter under the event with 2-year recurrence interval to 18.2 million cubic meter under the event with 20-year recurrence interval. Approximately 62% of the total landslide volume triggered by the rainfall events was concentrated in 20% of the slope units. As the recurrence interval of the events increased, the slope units with large landslide volume tended to concentrate in the midstream of Nanshi River subwatershed. The results indicated the probability model posited can be used not only to predict total landslide volume in watershed scale, but also to determine the possible locations of the slope units with large landslide volume.
format	article
author	Wu Chun-Yi Chou Po-Kai
author_facet	Wu Chun-Yi Chou Po-Kai
author_sort	Wu Chun-Yi
title	Prediction of total landslide volume in watershed scale under rainfall events using a probability model
title_short	Prediction of total landslide volume in watershed scale under rainfall events using a probability model
title_full	Prediction of total landslide volume in watershed scale under rainfall events using a probability model
title_fullStr	Prediction of total landslide volume in watershed scale under rainfall events using a probability model
title_full_unstemmed	Prediction of total landslide volume in watershed scale under rainfall events using a probability model
title_sort	prediction of total landslide volume in watershed scale under rainfall events using a probability model
publisher	De Gruyter
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/4cb271c64fe442bcb66021e2c121c1d8
work_keys_str_mv	AT wuchunyi predictionoftotallandslidevolumeinwatershedscaleunderrainfalleventsusingaprobabilitymodel AT choupokai predictionoftotallandslidevolumeinwatershedscaleunderrainfalleventsusingaprobabilitymodel
_version_	1718371719889027072

Prediction of total landslide volume in watershed scale under rainfall events using a probability model

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