Drought occurrence under future climate change scenarios in the Zard River basin, Iran

Global warming affected by human activities causes changes in the regime of rivers. Rivers are one of the most vital sources that supply fresh water. Therefore, management, planning, and proper use of rivers will be crucial for future climate change conditions. This study investigated the monitoring...

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Autores principales:	Pedram Mahdavi, Hossein Ghorbanizadeh Kharazi, Hossein Eslami, Narges Zohrabi, Majid Razaz
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	climate change continuous rainfall-runoff model hec-hms hydrological drought hydrology Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General) TC401-506
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4cd4bfab3d36446bb68f45e6c5e41a6e
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4cd4bfab3d36446bb68f45e6c5e41a6e2021-11-06T07:10:01ZDrought occurrence under future climate change scenarios in the Zard River basin, Iran1606-97491607-079810.2166/ws.2020.367https://doaj.org/article/4cd4bfab3d36446bb68f45e6c5e41a6e2021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttp://ws.iwaponline.com/content/21/2/899https://doaj.org/toc/1606-9749https://doaj.org/toc/1607-0798Global warming affected by human activities causes changes in the regime of rivers. Rivers are one of the most vital sources that supply fresh water. Therefore, management, planning, and proper use of rivers will be crucial for future climate change conditions. This study investigated the monitoring of hydrological drought in a future period to examine the impact of climate change on the discharging flow of the Zard River basin in Iran. Zard River is an important supplier of fresh and agricultural water in a vast area of Khuzestan province in Iran. A continuous rainfall-runoff model based on Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) algorithm was applied to simulate the discharge flow under 10 scenarios (obtained from LARS-WG.6 software) of future climate change. Then, the Stream-flow Drought Index (SDI) and the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) were calculated for each climate change scenario for the future period (2041–2060). The results of the meteorological drought assessment showed that near normal and moderate droughts had higher proportions among other drought conditions. Moreover, the hydrological drought assessment showed the occurrence of two new droughts (severe and extreme) conditions for the future period (2041–2060) that has never happened in the past (1997–2016). HIGHLIGHTS Examining two RCPs to evaluate runoff and precipitation in the future.; Using of Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) to compute excessive rainfall and rainfall-runoff modeling.; Evaluating the interaction between SDI and SPI drought indices.; Five AOGCMs under two RCPs were tested in the drought monitoring.; Extreme droughts will occur in the future in this region and will decrease the water security.;Pedram MahdaviHossein Ghorbanizadeh KharaziHossein EslamiNarges ZohrabiMajid RazazIWA Publishingarticleclimate changecontinuous rainfall-runoff modelhec-hmshydrological droughthydrologyWater supply for domestic and industrial purposesTD201-500River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General)TC401-506ENWater Supply, Vol 21, Iss 2, Pp 899-917 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate change continuous rainfall-runoff model hec-hms hydrological drought hydrology Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General) TC401-506
spellingShingle	climate change continuous rainfall-runoff model hec-hms hydrological drought hydrology Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General) TC401-506 Pedram Mahdavi Hossein Ghorbanizadeh Kharazi Hossein Eslami Narges Zohrabi Majid Razaz Drought occurrence under future climate change scenarios in the Zard River basin, Iran
description	Global warming affected by human activities causes changes in the regime of rivers. Rivers are one of the most vital sources that supply fresh water. Therefore, management, planning, and proper use of rivers will be crucial for future climate change conditions. This study investigated the monitoring of hydrological drought in a future period to examine the impact of climate change on the discharging flow of the Zard River basin in Iran. Zard River is an important supplier of fresh and agricultural water in a vast area of Khuzestan province in Iran. A continuous rainfall-runoff model based on Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) algorithm was applied to simulate the discharge flow under 10 scenarios (obtained from LARS-WG.6 software) of future climate change. Then, the Stream-flow Drought Index (SDI) and the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) were calculated for each climate change scenario for the future period (2041–2060). The results of the meteorological drought assessment showed that near normal and moderate droughts had higher proportions among other drought conditions. Moreover, the hydrological drought assessment showed the occurrence of two new droughts (severe and extreme) conditions for the future period (2041–2060) that has never happened in the past (1997–2016). HIGHLIGHTS Examining two RCPs to evaluate runoff and precipitation in the future.; Using of Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) to compute excessive rainfall and rainfall-runoff modeling.; Evaluating the interaction between SDI and SPI drought indices.; Five AOGCMs under two RCPs were tested in the drought monitoring.; Extreme droughts will occur in the future in this region and will decrease the water security.;
format	article
author	Pedram Mahdavi Hossein Ghorbanizadeh Kharazi Hossein Eslami Narges Zohrabi Majid Razaz
author_facet	Pedram Mahdavi Hossein Ghorbanizadeh Kharazi Hossein Eslami Narges Zohrabi Majid Razaz
author_sort	Pedram Mahdavi
title	Drought occurrence under future climate change scenarios in the Zard River basin, Iran
title_short	Drought occurrence under future climate change scenarios in the Zard River basin, Iran
title_full	Drought occurrence under future climate change scenarios in the Zard River basin, Iran
title_fullStr	Drought occurrence under future climate change scenarios in the Zard River basin, Iran
title_full_unstemmed	Drought occurrence under future climate change scenarios in the Zard River basin, Iran
title_sort	drought occurrence under future climate change scenarios in the zard river basin, iran
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/4cd4bfab3d36446bb68f45e6c5e41a6e
work_keys_str_mv	AT pedrammahdavi droughtoccurrenceunderfutureclimatechangescenariosinthezardriverbasiniran AT hosseinghorbanizadehkharazi droughtoccurrenceunderfutureclimatechangescenariosinthezardriverbasiniran AT hosseineslami droughtoccurrenceunderfutureclimatechangescenariosinthezardriverbasiniran AT nargeszohrabi droughtoccurrenceunderfutureclimatechangescenariosinthezardriverbasiniran AT majidrazaz droughtoccurrenceunderfutureclimatechangescenariosinthezardriverbasiniran
_version_	1718443792342712320

Drought occurrence under future climate change scenarios in the Zard River basin, Iran

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