Climate drivers of large magnitude snow avalanche years in the U.S. northern Rocky Mountains

Abstract Large magnitude snow avalanches pose a hazard to humans and infrastructure worldwide. Analyzing the spatiotemporal behavior of avalanches and the contributory climate factors is important for understanding historical variability in climate-avalanche relationships as well as improving avalan...

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Autores principales:	Erich H. Peitzsch, Gregory T. Pederson, Karl W. Birkeland, Jordy Hendrikx, Daniel B. Fagre
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4e1be5b9635149fbbbc070552e60f5eb
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4e1be5b9635149fbbbc070552e60f5eb2021-12-02T17:01:43ZClimate drivers of large magnitude snow avalanche years in the U.S. northern Rocky Mountains10.1038/s41598-021-89547-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/4e1be5b9635149fbbbc070552e60f5eb2021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89547-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Large magnitude snow avalanches pose a hazard to humans and infrastructure worldwide. Analyzing the spatiotemporal behavior of avalanches and the contributory climate factors is important for understanding historical variability in climate-avalanche relationships as well as improving avalanche forecasting. We used established dendrochronological methods to develop a long-term (1867–2019) regional avalanche chronology for the Rocky Mountains of northwest Montana using tree-rings from 647 trees exhibiting 2134 avalanche-related growth disturbances. We then used principal component analysis and a generalized linear autoregressive moving average model to examine avalanche-climate relationships. Historically, large magnitude regional avalanche years were characterized by stormy winters with positive snowpack anomalies, with avalanche years over recent decades increasingly influenced by warmer temperatures and a shallow snowpack. The amount of snowpack across the region, represented by the first principal component, is shown to be directly related to avalanche probability. Coincident with warming and regional snowpack reductions, a decline of ~ 14% (~ 2% per decade) in overall large magnitude avalanche probability is apparent through the period 1950–2017. As continued climate warming drives further regional snowpack reductions in the study region our results suggest a decreased probability of regional large magnitude avalanche frequency associated with winters characterized by large snowpacks and a potential increase in large magnitude events driven by warming temperatures and spring precipitation.Erich H. PeitzschGregory T. PedersonKarl W. BirkelandJordy HendrikxDaniel B. FagreNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Erich H. Peitzsch Gregory T. Pederson Karl W. Birkeland Jordy Hendrikx Daniel B. Fagre Climate drivers of large magnitude snow avalanche years in the U.S. northern Rocky Mountains
description	Abstract Large magnitude snow avalanches pose a hazard to humans and infrastructure worldwide. Analyzing the spatiotemporal behavior of avalanches and the contributory climate factors is important for understanding historical variability in climate-avalanche relationships as well as improving avalanche forecasting. We used established dendrochronological methods to develop a long-term (1867–2019) regional avalanche chronology for the Rocky Mountains of northwest Montana using tree-rings from 647 trees exhibiting 2134 avalanche-related growth disturbances. We then used principal component analysis and a generalized linear autoregressive moving average model to examine avalanche-climate relationships. Historically, large magnitude regional avalanche years were characterized by stormy winters with positive snowpack anomalies, with avalanche years over recent decades increasingly influenced by warmer temperatures and a shallow snowpack. The amount of snowpack across the region, represented by the first principal component, is shown to be directly related to avalanche probability. Coincident with warming and regional snowpack reductions, a decline of ~ 14% (~ 2% per decade) in overall large magnitude avalanche probability is apparent through the period 1950–2017. As continued climate warming drives further regional snowpack reductions in the study region our results suggest a decreased probability of regional large magnitude avalanche frequency associated with winters characterized by large snowpacks and a potential increase in large magnitude events driven by warming temperatures and spring precipitation.
format	article
author	Erich H. Peitzsch Gregory T. Pederson Karl W. Birkeland Jordy Hendrikx Daniel B. Fagre
author_facet	Erich H. Peitzsch Gregory T. Pederson Karl W. Birkeland Jordy Hendrikx Daniel B. Fagre
author_sort	Erich H. Peitzsch
title	Climate drivers of large magnitude snow avalanche years in the U.S. northern Rocky Mountains
title_short	Climate drivers of large magnitude snow avalanche years in the U.S. northern Rocky Mountains
title_full	Climate drivers of large magnitude snow avalanche years in the U.S. northern Rocky Mountains
title_fullStr	Climate drivers of large magnitude snow avalanche years in the U.S. northern Rocky Mountains
title_full_unstemmed	Climate drivers of large magnitude snow avalanche years in the U.S. northern Rocky Mountains
title_sort	climate drivers of large magnitude snow avalanche years in the u.s. northern rocky mountains
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/4e1be5b9635149fbbbc070552e60f5eb
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Climate drivers of large magnitude snow avalanche years in the U.S. northern Rocky Mountains

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