Evaluating Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Using the 2.5 km CReSS Model for Typhoons in Taiwan: An Update through the 2015 Season

In this study, 24 h quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) by a cloud-resolving model (with a grid spacing of 2.5 km) on days 1–3 for 29 typhoons in six seasons of 2010–2015 in Taiwan were examined using categorical scores and rain gauge data. The study represents an update from a previous stud...

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Autores principales:	Chung-Chieh Wang, Chih-Sheng Chang, Yi-Wen Wang, Chien-Chang Huang, Shih-Chieh Wang, Yi-Shin Chen, Kazuhisa Tsuboki, Shin-Yi Huang, Shin-Hau Chen, Pi-Yu Chuang, Hsun Chiu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	quantitative precipitation forecast typhoon cloud-resolving model categorical skill scores Taiwan Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4e323cc5538743e3bd6ae0e62b18a85a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4e323cc5538743e3bd6ae0e62b18a85a2021-11-25T16:45:37ZEvaluating Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Using the 2.5 km CReSS Model for Typhoons in Taiwan: An Update through the 2015 Season10.3390/atmos121115012073-4433https://doaj.org/article/4e323cc5538743e3bd6ae0e62b18a85a2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/11/1501https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433In this study, 24 h quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) by a cloud-resolving model (with a grid spacing of 2.5 km) on days 1–3 for 29 typhoons in six seasons of 2010–2015 in Taiwan were examined using categorical scores and rain gauge data. The study represents an update from a previous study for 2010–2012, in order to produce more stable and robust statistics toward the high thresholds (typically with fewer sample points), which is our main focus of interest. This is important to better understand the model’s ability to predict such high-impact typhoon rainfall events. The overall threat scores (TS, defined as the fraction among all verification points that are correctly predicted to reach a given threshold to all points that are either observed or predicted to reach that threshold, or both) were 0.28 and 0.18 on day 1 (0–24 h) QPFs, 0.25 and 0.16 on day 2 (24–48 h) QPFs, and 0.15 and 0.08 on day 3 (48–72 h) QPFs at 350 mm and 500 mm, respectively, showing improvements over 5 km models. Moreover, as found previously, a strong dependence of higher TSs for larger rainfall events also existed, and the corresponding TSs at 350 and 500 mm for the top 5% of events were 0.39 and 0.25 on day 1, 0.38 and 0.21 on day 2, and 0.25 and 0.12 on day 3. Thus, for the top typhoon rainfall events that have the highest potential for hazards, the model exhibits an even higher ability for QPFs based on categorical scores. Furthermore, it is shown that the model has little tendency to overpredict or underpredict rainfall for all groups of events with different rainfall magnitude across all thresholds, except for some tendency to under-forecast for the largest event group on day 3. Some issues associated with categorical statistics to be aware of are also demonstrated and discussed.Chung-Chieh WangChih-Sheng ChangYi-Wen WangChien-Chang HuangShih-Chieh WangYi-Shin ChenKazuhisa TsubokiShin-Yi HuangShin-Hau ChenPi-Yu ChuangHsun ChiuMDPI AGarticlequantitative precipitation forecasttyphooncloud-resolving modelcategorical skill scoresTaiwanMeteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENAtmosphere, Vol 12, Iss 1501, p 1501 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	quantitative precipitation forecast typhoon cloud-resolving model categorical skill scores Taiwan Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	quantitative precipitation forecast typhoon cloud-resolving model categorical skill scores Taiwan Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Chung-Chieh Wang Chih-Sheng Chang Yi-Wen Wang Chien-Chang Huang Shih-Chieh Wang Yi-Shin Chen Kazuhisa Tsuboki Shin-Yi Huang Shin-Hau Chen Pi-Yu Chuang Hsun Chiu Evaluating Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Using the 2.5 km CReSS Model for Typhoons in Taiwan: An Update through the 2015 Season
description	In this study, 24 h quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) by a cloud-resolving model (with a grid spacing of 2.5 km) on days 1–3 for 29 typhoons in six seasons of 2010–2015 in Taiwan were examined using categorical scores and rain gauge data. The study represents an update from a previous study for 2010–2012, in order to produce more stable and robust statistics toward the high thresholds (typically with fewer sample points), which is our main focus of interest. This is important to better understand the model’s ability to predict such high-impact typhoon rainfall events. The overall threat scores (TS, defined as the fraction among all verification points that are correctly predicted to reach a given threshold to all points that are either observed or predicted to reach that threshold, or both) were 0.28 and 0.18 on day 1 (0–24 h) QPFs, 0.25 and 0.16 on day 2 (24–48 h) QPFs, and 0.15 and 0.08 on day 3 (48–72 h) QPFs at 350 mm and 500 mm, respectively, showing improvements over 5 km models. Moreover, as found previously, a strong dependence of higher TSs for larger rainfall events also existed, and the corresponding TSs at 350 and 500 mm for the top 5% of events were 0.39 and 0.25 on day 1, 0.38 and 0.21 on day 2, and 0.25 and 0.12 on day 3. Thus, for the top typhoon rainfall events that have the highest potential for hazards, the model exhibits an even higher ability for QPFs based on categorical scores. Furthermore, it is shown that the model has little tendency to overpredict or underpredict rainfall for all groups of events with different rainfall magnitude across all thresholds, except for some tendency to under-forecast for the largest event group on day 3. Some issues associated with categorical statistics to be aware of are also demonstrated and discussed.
format	article
author	Chung-Chieh Wang Chih-Sheng Chang Yi-Wen Wang Chien-Chang Huang Shih-Chieh Wang Yi-Shin Chen Kazuhisa Tsuboki Shin-Yi Huang Shin-Hau Chen Pi-Yu Chuang Hsun Chiu
author_facet	Chung-Chieh Wang Chih-Sheng Chang Yi-Wen Wang Chien-Chang Huang Shih-Chieh Wang Yi-Shin Chen Kazuhisa Tsuboki Shin-Yi Huang Shin-Hau Chen Pi-Yu Chuang Hsun Chiu
author_sort	Chung-Chieh Wang
title	Evaluating Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Using the 2.5 km CReSS Model for Typhoons in Taiwan: An Update through the 2015 Season
title_short	Evaluating Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Using the 2.5 km CReSS Model for Typhoons in Taiwan: An Update through the 2015 Season
title_full	Evaluating Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Using the 2.5 km CReSS Model for Typhoons in Taiwan: An Update through the 2015 Season
title_fullStr	Evaluating Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Using the 2.5 km CReSS Model for Typhoons in Taiwan: An Update through the 2015 Season
title_full_unstemmed	Evaluating Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Using the 2.5 km CReSS Model for Typhoons in Taiwan: An Update through the 2015 Season
title_sort	evaluating quantitative precipitation forecasts using the 2.5 km cress model for typhoons in taiwan: an update through the 2015 season
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/4e323cc5538743e3bd6ae0e62b18a85a
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Evaluating Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Using the 2.5 km CReSS Model for Typhoons in Taiwan: An Update through the 2015 Season

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