Chances and limitations of wild bird monitoring for the avian influenza virus H5N1--detection of pathogens highly mobile in time and space.

Highly pathogenic influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 proved to be remarkably mobile in migratory bird populations where it has led to extensive outbreaks for which the true number of affected birds usually cannot be determined. For the evaluation of avian influenza monitoring and HPAIV early warning syste...

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Autores principales:	Hendrik Wilking, Mario Ziller, Christoph Staubach, Anja Globig, Timm C Harder, Franz J Conraths
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2009
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4e43ccbfe57a4a0f9f485c046357f60a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4e43ccbfe57a4a0f9f485c046357f60a2021-11-25T06:20:59ZChances and limitations of wild bird monitoring for the avian influenza virus H5N1--detection of pathogens highly mobile in time and space.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0006639https://doaj.org/article/4e43ccbfe57a4a0f9f485c046357f60a2009-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/19680560/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Highly pathogenic influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 proved to be remarkably mobile in migratory bird populations where it has led to extensive outbreaks for which the true number of affected birds usually cannot be determined. For the evaluation of avian influenza monitoring and HPAIV early warning systems, we propose a time-series analysis that includes the estimation of confidence intervals for (i) the prevalence in outbreak situations or (ii) in the apparent absence of disease in time intervals for specified regional units. For the German outbreak regions in 2006 and 2007, the upper 95% confidence limit allowed the detection of prevalences below 1% only for certain time intervals. Although more than 25,000 birds were sampled in Germany per year, the upper 95% confidence limit did not fall below 5% in the outbreak regions for most of the time. The proposed analysis can be used to monitor water bodies and high risk areas, also as part of an early-warning system. Chances for an improved targeting of the monitoring system as part of a risk-based approach are discussed with the perspective of reducing sample sizes.Hendrik WilkingMario ZillerChristoph StaubachAnja GlobigTimm C HarderFranz J ConrathsPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 4, Iss 8, p e6639 (2009)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Hendrik Wilking Mario Ziller Christoph Staubach Anja Globig Timm C Harder Franz J Conraths Chances and limitations of wild bird monitoring for the avian influenza virus H5N1--detection of pathogens highly mobile in time and space.
description	Highly pathogenic influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 proved to be remarkably mobile in migratory bird populations where it has led to extensive outbreaks for which the true number of affected birds usually cannot be determined. For the evaluation of avian influenza monitoring and HPAIV early warning systems, we propose a time-series analysis that includes the estimation of confidence intervals for (i) the prevalence in outbreak situations or (ii) in the apparent absence of disease in time intervals for specified regional units. For the German outbreak regions in 2006 and 2007, the upper 95% confidence limit allowed the detection of prevalences below 1% only for certain time intervals. Although more than 25,000 birds were sampled in Germany per year, the upper 95% confidence limit did not fall below 5% in the outbreak regions for most of the time. The proposed analysis can be used to monitor water bodies and high risk areas, also as part of an early-warning system. Chances for an improved targeting of the monitoring system as part of a risk-based approach are discussed with the perspective of reducing sample sizes.
format	article
author	Hendrik Wilking Mario Ziller Christoph Staubach Anja Globig Timm C Harder Franz J Conraths
author_facet	Hendrik Wilking Mario Ziller Christoph Staubach Anja Globig Timm C Harder Franz J Conraths
author_sort	Hendrik Wilking
title	Chances and limitations of wild bird monitoring for the avian influenza virus H5N1--detection of pathogens highly mobile in time and space.
title_short	Chances and limitations of wild bird monitoring for the avian influenza virus H5N1--detection of pathogens highly mobile in time and space.
title_full	Chances and limitations of wild bird monitoring for the avian influenza virus H5N1--detection of pathogens highly mobile in time and space.
title_fullStr	Chances and limitations of wild bird monitoring for the avian influenza virus H5N1--detection of pathogens highly mobile in time and space.
title_full_unstemmed	Chances and limitations of wild bird monitoring for the avian influenza virus H5N1--detection of pathogens highly mobile in time and space.
title_sort	chances and limitations of wild bird monitoring for the avian influenza virus h5n1--detection of pathogens highly mobile in time and space.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2009
url	https://doaj.org/article/4e43ccbfe57a4a0f9f485c046357f60a
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Chances and limitations of wild bird monitoring for the avian influenza virus H5N1--detection of pathogens highly mobile in time and space.

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