Identification of potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on streamflow alterations in the Tarim River Basin, China

Abstract Understanding contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in streamflow is important for sustainable management of water resources in an arid area. This study presents quantitative analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors to streamflow alteration in the Tarim River...

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Autores principales:	Lianqing Xue, Fan Yang, Changbing Yang, Xinfang Chen, Luochen Zhang, Yixia Chi, Guang Yang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4ee8b58c358a4c37aa4957139f41924c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4ee8b58c358a4c37aa4957139f41924c2021-12-02T15:05:15ZIdentification of potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on streamflow alterations in the Tarim River Basin, China10.1038/s41598-017-09215-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/4ee8b58c358a4c37aa4957139f41924c2017-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-09215-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Understanding contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in streamflow is important for sustainable management of water resources in an arid area. This study presents quantitative analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors to streamflow alteration in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the double mass curve method (DMC) and the Budyko methods. The time series (1960~2015) are divided into three periods: the prior impacted period (1960~1972) and the two post impacted periods, 1973~1986 and 1987~2015 with trend analysis. Our results suggest that human activities played a dominant role in deduction in the streamflow in TRB with contribution of 144.6% to 120.68% during the post impacted period I and 228.68% to 140.38% during the post impacted period II. Climatic variables accounted for 20.68%~44.6% of the decrease during the post impacted period I and 40.38% ~128.68% during the post impacted period II. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the streamflow alteration was most sensitive to changes in landscape parameters. The aridity index and all the elasticities showed an obvious increasing trend from the upstream to the downstream in the TRB. Our study suggests that it is important to take effective measures for sustainable development of eco-hydrological and socio-economic systems in the TRB.Lianqing XueFan YangChangbing YangXinfang ChenLuochen ZhangYixia ChiGuang YangNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Lianqing Xue Fan Yang Changbing Yang Xinfang Chen Luochen Zhang Yixia Chi Guang Yang Identification of potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on streamflow alterations in the Tarim River Basin, China
description	Abstract Understanding contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in streamflow is important for sustainable management of water resources in an arid area. This study presents quantitative analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors to streamflow alteration in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the double mass curve method (DMC) and the Budyko methods. The time series (1960~2015) are divided into three periods: the prior impacted period (1960~1972) and the two post impacted periods, 1973~1986 and 1987~2015 with trend analysis. Our results suggest that human activities played a dominant role in deduction in the streamflow in TRB with contribution of 144.6% to 120.68% during the post impacted period I and 228.68% to 140.38% during the post impacted period II. Climatic variables accounted for 20.68%~44.6% of the decrease during the post impacted period I and 40.38% ~128.68% during the post impacted period II. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the streamflow alteration was most sensitive to changes in landscape parameters. The aridity index and all the elasticities showed an obvious increasing trend from the upstream to the downstream in the TRB. Our study suggests that it is important to take effective measures for sustainable development of eco-hydrological and socio-economic systems in the TRB.
format	article
author	Lianqing Xue Fan Yang Changbing Yang Xinfang Chen Luochen Zhang Yixia Chi Guang Yang
author_facet	Lianqing Xue Fan Yang Changbing Yang Xinfang Chen Luochen Zhang Yixia Chi Guang Yang
author_sort	Lianqing Xue
title	Identification of potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on streamflow alterations in the Tarim River Basin, China
title_short	Identification of potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on streamflow alterations in the Tarim River Basin, China
title_full	Identification of potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on streamflow alterations in the Tarim River Basin, China
title_fullStr	Identification of potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on streamflow alterations in the Tarim River Basin, China
title_full_unstemmed	Identification of potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on streamflow alterations in the Tarim River Basin, China
title_sort	identification of potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on streamflow alterations in the tarim river basin, china
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/4ee8b58c358a4c37aa4957139f41924c
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Identification of potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on streamflow alterations in the Tarim River Basin, China

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