A parsimonious model to validate cost-effectiveness analyses on preventive health care

Abstract Background The effect of preventive health care on health expenditures is ambiguous. On the one hand, prevention reduces the costs of future morbidity. On the other hand, prevention leads to costs of life extension. The purpose of this paper is to develop a parsimonious model that determine...

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Autor principal:	Afschin Gandjour
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	BMC 2021
Materias:	Cost-effectiveness analysis Model Validation Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4f08b99094b34d8cb8e560e7068a0bc4
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:4f08b99094b34d8cb8e560e7068a0bc4
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4f08b99094b34d8cb8e560e7068a0bc42021-11-14T12:09:50ZA parsimonious model to validate cost-effectiveness analyses on preventive health care10.1186/s12913-021-07217-21472-6963https://doaj.org/article/4f08b99094b34d8cb8e560e7068a0bc42021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12913-021-07217-2https://doaj.org/toc/1472-6963Abstract Background The effect of preventive health care on health expenditures is ambiguous. On the one hand, prevention reduces the costs of future morbidity. On the other hand, prevention leads to costs of life extension. The purpose of this paper is to develop a parsimonious model that determines for a preventive measure of interest whether savings from preventing morbidity are more than offset by the costs of living longer, resulting in a net expenditure increase. Methods A theoretical model was built based on a Weibull survival function. It includes savings and life extension costs over the remaining lifetime. The model was applied to the example of obesity prevention. Results The model shows that the cost consequences of prevention are essentially driven by two factors: i) the relative reduction of morbidity-related costs, which determines the amount of savings from avoiding morbidity; and ii) the hazard ratio of death, which determines the amount of life extension costs. In the application example, the model is able to validate the results of a more complex cost-effectiveness model on obesity prevention. Conclusions This work provides new insight into the lifetime cost consequences of prevention. The model can be used both to check plausibility of the results of other models and to conduct an independent analysis.Afschin GandjourBMCarticleCost-effectiveness analysisModelValidationPublic aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENBMC Health Services Research, Vol 21, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Cost-effectiveness analysis Model Validation Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
spellingShingle	Cost-effectiveness analysis Model Validation Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Afschin Gandjour A parsimonious model to validate cost-effectiveness analyses on preventive health care
description	Abstract Background The effect of preventive health care on health expenditures is ambiguous. On the one hand, prevention reduces the costs of future morbidity. On the other hand, prevention leads to costs of life extension. The purpose of this paper is to develop a parsimonious model that determines for a preventive measure of interest whether savings from preventing morbidity are more than offset by the costs of living longer, resulting in a net expenditure increase. Methods A theoretical model was built based on a Weibull survival function. It includes savings and life extension costs over the remaining lifetime. The model was applied to the example of obesity prevention. Results The model shows that the cost consequences of prevention are essentially driven by two factors: i) the relative reduction of morbidity-related costs, which determines the amount of savings from avoiding morbidity; and ii) the hazard ratio of death, which determines the amount of life extension costs. In the application example, the model is able to validate the results of a more complex cost-effectiveness model on obesity prevention. Conclusions This work provides new insight into the lifetime cost consequences of prevention. The model can be used both to check plausibility of the results of other models and to conduct an independent analysis.
format	article
author	Afschin Gandjour
author_facet	Afschin Gandjour
author_sort	Afschin Gandjour
title	A parsimonious model to validate cost-effectiveness analyses on preventive health care
title_short	A parsimonious model to validate cost-effectiveness analyses on preventive health care
title_full	A parsimonious model to validate cost-effectiveness analyses on preventive health care
title_fullStr	A parsimonious model to validate cost-effectiveness analyses on preventive health care
title_full_unstemmed	A parsimonious model to validate cost-effectiveness analyses on preventive health care
title_sort	parsimonious model to validate cost-effectiveness analyses on preventive health care
publisher	BMC
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/4f08b99094b34d8cb8e560e7068a0bc4
work_keys_str_mv	AT afschingandjour aparsimoniousmodeltovalidatecosteffectivenessanalysesonpreventivehealthcare AT afschingandjour parsimoniousmodeltovalidatecosteffectivenessanalysesonpreventivehealthcare
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A parsimonious model to validate cost-effectiveness analyses on preventive health care

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