A general HIV incidence inference scheme based on likelihood of individual level data and a population renewal equation.

We derive a new method to estimate the age specific incidence of an infection with a differential mortality, using individual level infection status data from successive surveys. The method consists of a) an SI-type model to express the incidence rate in terms of the prevalence and its derivatives a...

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Autores principales:	Guy Severin Mahiane, Rachid Ouifki, Hilmarie Brand, Wim Delva, Alex Welte
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2012
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4f0e009b21ed4961b4d90c6b289073c8
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4f0e009b21ed4961b4d90c6b289073c82021-11-18T07:05:53ZA general HIV incidence inference scheme based on likelihood of individual level data and a population renewal equation.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0044377https://doaj.org/article/4f0e009b21ed4961b4d90c6b289073c82012-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/22984497/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203We derive a new method to estimate the age specific incidence of an infection with a differential mortality, using individual level infection status data from successive surveys. The method consists of a) an SI-type model to express the incidence rate in terms of the prevalence and its derivatives as well as the difference in mortality rate, and b) a maximum likelihood approach to estimate the prevalence and its derivatives. Estimates can in principle be obtained for any chosen age and time, and no particular assumptions are made about the epidemiological or demographic context. This is in contrast with earlier methods for estimating incidence from prevalence data, which work with aggregated data, and the aggregated effect of demographic and epidemiological rates over the time interval between prevalence surveys. Numerical simulation of HIV epidemics, under the presumption of known excess mortality due to infection, shows improved control of bias and variance, compared to previous methods. Our analysis motivates for a) effort to be applied to obtain accurate estimates of excess mortality rates as a function of age and time among HIV infected individuals and b) use of individual level rather than aggregated data in order to estimate HIV incidence rates at times between two prevalence surveys.Guy Severin MahianeRachid OuifkiHilmarie BrandWim DelvaAlex WeltePublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 7, Iss 9, p e44377 (2012)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Guy Severin Mahiane Rachid Ouifki Hilmarie Brand Wim Delva Alex Welte A general HIV incidence inference scheme based on likelihood of individual level data and a population renewal equation.
description	We derive a new method to estimate the age specific incidence of an infection with a differential mortality, using individual level infection status data from successive surveys. The method consists of a) an SI-type model to express the incidence rate in terms of the prevalence and its derivatives as well as the difference in mortality rate, and b) a maximum likelihood approach to estimate the prevalence and its derivatives. Estimates can in principle be obtained for any chosen age and time, and no particular assumptions are made about the epidemiological or demographic context. This is in contrast with earlier methods for estimating incidence from prevalence data, which work with aggregated data, and the aggregated effect of demographic and epidemiological rates over the time interval between prevalence surveys. Numerical simulation of HIV epidemics, under the presumption of known excess mortality due to infection, shows improved control of bias and variance, compared to previous methods. Our analysis motivates for a) effort to be applied to obtain accurate estimates of excess mortality rates as a function of age and time among HIV infected individuals and b) use of individual level rather than aggregated data in order to estimate HIV incidence rates at times between two prevalence surveys.
format	article
author	Guy Severin Mahiane Rachid Ouifki Hilmarie Brand Wim Delva Alex Welte
author_facet	Guy Severin Mahiane Rachid Ouifki Hilmarie Brand Wim Delva Alex Welte
author_sort	Guy Severin Mahiane
title	A general HIV incidence inference scheme based on likelihood of individual level data and a population renewal equation.
title_short	A general HIV incidence inference scheme based on likelihood of individual level data and a population renewal equation.
title_full	A general HIV incidence inference scheme based on likelihood of individual level data and a population renewal equation.
title_fullStr	A general HIV incidence inference scheme based on likelihood of individual level data and a population renewal equation.
title_full_unstemmed	A general HIV incidence inference scheme based on likelihood of individual level data and a population renewal equation.
title_sort	general hiv incidence inference scheme based on likelihood of individual level data and a population renewal equation.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2012
url	https://doaj.org/article/4f0e009b21ed4961b4d90c6b289073c8
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A general HIV incidence inference scheme based on likelihood of individual level data and a population renewal equation.

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