Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability.

<h4>Background</h4>Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics i...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Khoa T D Thai, Bernard Cazelles, Nam Van Nguyen, Long Thi Vo, Maciej F Boni, Jeremy Farrar, Cameron P Simmons, H Rogier van Doorn, Peter J de Vries
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2010
Materias:	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4f3a6db62bf842b0b39ade5d7f5ed3ed
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:4f3a6db62bf842b0b39ade5d7f5ed3ed
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4f3a6db62bf842b0b39ade5d7f5ed3ed2021-12-02T20:24:22ZDengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability.1935-27271935-273510.1371/journal.pntd.0000747https://doaj.org/article/4f3a6db62bf842b0b39ade5d7f5ed3ed2010-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/20644621/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735<h4>Background</h4>Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam.<h4>Methodology</h4>Wavelet analyses were performed on time series of monthly notified dengue cases from January 1994 to June 2009 (i) to detect and quantify dengue periodicity, (ii) to describe synchrony patterns in both time and space, (iii) to investigate the spatio-temporal waves and (iv) to associate the relationship between dengue incidence and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam.<h4>Principal findings</h4>We demonstrate a continuous annual mode of oscillation and a multi-annual cycle of around 2-3-years was solely observed from 1996-2001. Synchrony in time and between districts was detected for both the annual and 2-3-year cycle. Phase differences used to describe the spatio-temporal patterns suggested that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous among all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district. The 2-3-year periodic wave was moving towards, rather than away from Phan Thiet district. A strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence in the 2-3-year periodic band was found.<h4>Conclusions</h4>A multi-annual mode of oscillation was observed and these 2-3-year waves of infection probably started outside Binh Thuan province. Associations with climatic variables were observed with dengue incidence. Here, we have provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam.Khoa T D ThaiBernard CazellesNam Van NguyenLong Thi VoMaciej F BoniJeremy FarrarCameron P SimmonsH Rogier van DoornPeter J de VriesPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleArctic medicine. Tropical medicineRC955-962Public aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENPLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 4, Iss 7, p e747 (2010)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
spellingShingle	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Khoa T D Thai Bernard Cazelles Nam Van Nguyen Long Thi Vo Maciej F Boni Jeremy Farrar Cameron P Simmons H Rogier van Doorn Peter J de Vries Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability.
description	<h4>Background</h4>Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam.<h4>Methodology</h4>Wavelet analyses were performed on time series of monthly notified dengue cases from January 1994 to June 2009 (i) to detect and quantify dengue periodicity, (ii) to describe synchrony patterns in both time and space, (iii) to investigate the spatio-temporal waves and (iv) to associate the relationship between dengue incidence and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam.<h4>Principal findings</h4>We demonstrate a continuous annual mode of oscillation and a multi-annual cycle of around 2-3-years was solely observed from 1996-2001. Synchrony in time and between districts was detected for both the annual and 2-3-year cycle. Phase differences used to describe the spatio-temporal patterns suggested that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous among all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district. The 2-3-year periodic wave was moving towards, rather than away from Phan Thiet district. A strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence in the 2-3-year periodic band was found.<h4>Conclusions</h4>A multi-annual mode of oscillation was observed and these 2-3-year waves of infection probably started outside Binh Thuan province. Associations with climatic variables were observed with dengue incidence. Here, we have provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam.
format	article
author	Khoa T D Thai Bernard Cazelles Nam Van Nguyen Long Thi Vo Maciej F Boni Jeremy Farrar Cameron P Simmons H Rogier van Doorn Peter J de Vries
author_facet	Khoa T D Thai Bernard Cazelles Nam Van Nguyen Long Thi Vo Maciej F Boni Jeremy Farrar Cameron P Simmons H Rogier van Doorn Peter J de Vries
author_sort	Khoa T D Thai
title	Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability.
title_short	Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability.
title_full	Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability.
title_fullStr	Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability.
title_full_unstemmed	Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability.
title_sort	dengue dynamics in binh thuan province, southern vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2010
url	https://doaj.org/article/4f3a6db62bf842b0b39ade5d7f5ed3ed
work_keys_str_mv	AT khoatdthai denguedynamicsinbinhthuanprovincesouthernvietnamperiodicitysynchronicityandclimatevariability AT bernardcazelles denguedynamicsinbinhthuanprovincesouthernvietnamperiodicitysynchronicityandclimatevariability AT namvannguyen denguedynamicsinbinhthuanprovincesouthernvietnamperiodicitysynchronicityandclimatevariability AT longthivo denguedynamicsinbinhthuanprovincesouthernvietnamperiodicitysynchronicityandclimatevariability AT maciejfboni denguedynamicsinbinhthuanprovincesouthernvietnamperiodicitysynchronicityandclimatevariability AT jeremyfarrar denguedynamicsinbinhthuanprovincesouthernvietnamperiodicitysynchronicityandclimatevariability AT cameronpsimmons denguedynamicsinbinhthuanprovincesouthernvietnamperiodicitysynchronicityandclimatevariability AT hrogiervandoorn denguedynamicsinbinhthuanprovincesouthernvietnamperiodicitysynchronicityandclimatevariability AT peterjdevries denguedynamicsinbinhthuanprovincesouthernvietnamperiodicitysynchronicityandclimatevariability
_version_	1718374049315291136

Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability.

Ejemplares similares