Skip the trip: air travelers' behavioral responses to pandemic influenza.

Theory suggests that human behavior has implications for disease spread. We examine the hypothesis that individuals engage in voluntary defensive behavior during an epidemic. We estimate the number of passengers missing previously purchased flights as a function of concern for swine flu or A/H1N1 in...

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Autores principales:	Eli P Fenichel, Nicolai V Kuminoff, Gerardo Chowell
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4f6f930d6d184399937defc8b2ac97af
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4f6f930d6d184399937defc8b2ac97af2021-11-18T07:52:44ZSkip the trip: air travelers' behavioral responses to pandemic influenza.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0058249https://doaj.org/article/4f6f930d6d184399937defc8b2ac97af2013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23526970/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Theory suggests that human behavior has implications for disease spread. We examine the hypothesis that individuals engage in voluntary defensive behavior during an epidemic. We estimate the number of passengers missing previously purchased flights as a function of concern for swine flu or A/H1N1 influenza using 1.7 million detailed flight records, Google Trends, and the World Health Organization's FluNet data. We estimate that concern over "swine flu," as measured by Google Trends, accounted for 0.34% of missed flights during the epidemic. The Google Trends data correlates strongly with media attention, but poorly (at times negatively) with reported cases in FluNet. Passengers show no response to reported cases. Passengers skipping their purchased trips forwent at least $50 M in travel related benefits. Responding to actual cases would have cut this estimate in half. Thus, people appear to respond to an epidemic by voluntarily engaging in self-protection behavior, but this behavior may not be responsive to objective measures of risk. Clearer risk communication could substantially reduce epidemic costs. People undertaking costly risk reduction behavior, for example, forgoing nonrefundable flights, suggests they may also make less costly behavior adjustments to avoid infection. Accounting for defensive behaviors may be important for forecasting epidemics, but linking behavior with epidemics likely requires consideration of risk communication.Eli P FenichelNicolai V KuminoffGerardo ChowellPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 3, p e58249 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Eli P Fenichel Nicolai V Kuminoff Gerardo Chowell Skip the trip: air travelers' behavioral responses to pandemic influenza.
description	Theory suggests that human behavior has implications for disease spread. We examine the hypothesis that individuals engage in voluntary defensive behavior during an epidemic. We estimate the number of passengers missing previously purchased flights as a function of concern for swine flu or A/H1N1 influenza using 1.7 million detailed flight records, Google Trends, and the World Health Organization's FluNet data. We estimate that concern over "swine flu," as measured by Google Trends, accounted for 0.34% of missed flights during the epidemic. The Google Trends data correlates strongly with media attention, but poorly (at times negatively) with reported cases in FluNet. Passengers show no response to reported cases. Passengers skipping their purchased trips forwent at least $50 M in travel related benefits. Responding to actual cases would have cut this estimate in half. Thus, people appear to respond to an epidemic by voluntarily engaging in self-protection behavior, but this behavior may not be responsive to objective measures of risk. Clearer risk communication could substantially reduce epidemic costs. People undertaking costly risk reduction behavior, for example, forgoing nonrefundable flights, suggests they may also make less costly behavior adjustments to avoid infection. Accounting for defensive behaviors may be important for forecasting epidemics, but linking behavior with epidemics likely requires consideration of risk communication.
format	article
author	Eli P Fenichel Nicolai V Kuminoff Gerardo Chowell
author_facet	Eli P Fenichel Nicolai V Kuminoff Gerardo Chowell
author_sort	Eli P Fenichel
title	Skip the trip: air travelers' behavioral responses to pandemic influenza.
title_short	Skip the trip: air travelers' behavioral responses to pandemic influenza.
title_full	Skip the trip: air travelers' behavioral responses to pandemic influenza.
title_fullStr	Skip the trip: air travelers' behavioral responses to pandemic influenza.
title_full_unstemmed	Skip the trip: air travelers' behavioral responses to pandemic influenza.
title_sort	skip the trip: air travelers' behavioral responses to pandemic influenza.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/4f6f930d6d184399937defc8b2ac97af
work_keys_str_mv	AT elipfenichel skipthetripairtravelersbehavioralresponsestopandemicinfluenza AT nicolaivkuminoff skipthetripairtravelersbehavioralresponsestopandemicinfluenza AT gerardochowell skipthetripairtravelersbehavioralresponsestopandemicinfluenza
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Skip the trip: air travelers' behavioral responses to pandemic influenza.

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