Multivariate assessment and attribution of droughts in Central Asia

Abstract While the method for estimating the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is now more closely aligned to key water balance components, a comprehensive assessment for measuring long-term droughts that recognizes meteorological, agro-ecological and hydrological perspectives and their attributi...

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Autores principales:	Zhi Li, Yaning Chen, Gonghuan Fang, Yupeng Li
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4f9a6a66ffac4059957d432fbb869041
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4f9a6a66ffac4059957d432fbb8690412021-12-02T11:53:10ZMultivariate assessment and attribution of droughts in Central Asia10.1038/s41598-017-01473-12045-2322https://doaj.org/article/4f9a6a66ffac4059957d432fbb8690412017-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01473-1https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract While the method for estimating the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is now more closely aligned to key water balance components, a comprehensive assessment for measuring long-term droughts that recognizes meteorological, agro-ecological and hydrological perspectives and their attributions is still lacking. Based on physical approaches linked to potential evapotranspiration (PET), the PDSI in 1965–2014 showed a mixture of drying (42% of the land area) and wetting (58% of the land area) that combined to give a slightly wetting trend (0.0036 per year). Despite the smaller overall trend, there is a switch to a drying trend over the past decade (−0.023 per year). We designed numerical experiments and found that PDSI trend responding to the dramatic increase in air temperature and slight change in precipitation. The variabilities of meteorological and agro-ecological droughts were broadly comparable to various PDSI drought index. Interestingly, the hydrological drought was not completely comparable to the PDSI, which indicates that runoff in arid and semi-arid regions was not generated primarily from precipitation. Instead, fraction of glacierized areas in catchments caused large variations in the observed runoff changes.Zhi LiYaning ChenGonghuan FangYupeng LiNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Zhi Li Yaning Chen Gonghuan Fang Yupeng Li Multivariate assessment and attribution of droughts in Central Asia
description	Abstract While the method for estimating the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is now more closely aligned to key water balance components, a comprehensive assessment for measuring long-term droughts that recognizes meteorological, agro-ecological and hydrological perspectives and their attributions is still lacking. Based on physical approaches linked to potential evapotranspiration (PET), the PDSI in 1965–2014 showed a mixture of drying (42% of the land area) and wetting (58% of the land area) that combined to give a slightly wetting trend (0.0036 per year). Despite the smaller overall trend, there is a switch to a drying trend over the past decade (−0.023 per year). We designed numerical experiments and found that PDSI trend responding to the dramatic increase in air temperature and slight change in precipitation. The variabilities of meteorological and agro-ecological droughts were broadly comparable to various PDSI drought index. Interestingly, the hydrological drought was not completely comparable to the PDSI, which indicates that runoff in arid and semi-arid regions was not generated primarily from precipitation. Instead, fraction of glacierized areas in catchments caused large variations in the observed runoff changes.
format	article
author	Zhi Li Yaning Chen Gonghuan Fang Yupeng Li
author_facet	Zhi Li Yaning Chen Gonghuan Fang Yupeng Li
author_sort	Zhi Li
title	Multivariate assessment and attribution of droughts in Central Asia
title_short	Multivariate assessment and attribution of droughts in Central Asia
title_full	Multivariate assessment and attribution of droughts in Central Asia
title_fullStr	Multivariate assessment and attribution of droughts in Central Asia
title_full_unstemmed	Multivariate assessment and attribution of droughts in Central Asia
title_sort	multivariate assessment and attribution of droughts in central asia
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/4f9a6a66ffac4059957d432fbb869041
work_keys_str_mv	AT zhili multivariateassessmentandattributionofdroughtsincentralasia AT yaningchen multivariateassessmentandattributionofdroughtsincentralasia AT gonghuanfang multivariateassessmentandattributionofdroughtsincentralasia AT yupengli multivariateassessmentandattributionofdroughtsincentralasia
_version_	1718394864987537408

Multivariate assessment and attribution of droughts in Central Asia

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