Future intensification of precipitation and wind gust associated thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

Severe thunderstorms affect more than 30 million people living along the shores of Lake Victoria (East Africa). Thousands of fishers lose their lives on the lake every year. While deadly waves are assumed to be initiated by severe wind gusts, knowledge about thunderstorms is restricted to precipitat...

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Autores principales:	Jonas Van de Walle, Wim Thiery, Roman Brogli, Olivia Martius, Jakob Zscheischler, Nicole P.M. van Lipzig
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Lake Victoria Regional climate modeling Climate projections Severe wind gusts Intense precipitation Compound events Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/500c36ff8ce049b8b1f97c5e5a053d38
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:500c36ff8ce049b8b1f97c5e5a053d382021-11-10T04:25:19ZFuture intensification of precipitation and wind gust associated thunderstorms over Lake Victoria2212-094710.1016/j.wace.2021.100391https://doaj.org/article/500c36ff8ce049b8b1f97c5e5a053d382021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094721000803https://doaj.org/toc/2212-0947Severe thunderstorms affect more than 30 million people living along the shores of Lake Victoria (East Africa). Thousands of fishers lose their lives on the lake every year. While deadly waves are assumed to be initiated by severe wind gusts, knowledge about thunderstorms is restricted to precipitation or environmental proxies. Here we use a regional climate model run at convection-permitting resolution to simulate both precipitation and wind gusts over Lake Victoria for a historical 10-year period. In addition, a pseudo global warming simulation provides insight into the region’s future climate. In this simulation, ERA5’s initial and boundary conditions are perturbed with atmospheric changes between 1995–2025 and 2070–2100, projected by CMIP6’s ensemble mean. It was found that future decreases in both mean precipitation and wind gusts over Lake Victoria can be attributed to a weaker mean mesoscale circulation that reduces the trigger for over-lake nighttime convection and decreases the mean wind shear. However, an intensification of extremes is projected for both over-lake precipitation and wind gusts. The observed ∼7 %K−1 Clausius–Clapeyron extreme precipitation scaling is ascribed to increased water vapor content and a compensation of weaker mesoscale circulations and stronger thunderstorm dynamics. More frequent wind gust extremes result from higher wind shear conditions and more compound thunderstorms with both intense rainfall and severe wind gusts. Overall, our study emphasizes Lake Victoria’s modulating role in determining regional current and future extremes, in addition to changes expected from the Clausius–Clapeyron relation.Jonas Van de WalleWim ThieryRoman BrogliOlivia MartiusJakob ZscheischlerNicole P.M. van LipzigElsevierarticleLake VictoriaRegional climate modelingClimate projectionsSevere wind gustsIntense precipitationCompound eventsMeteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENWeather and Climate Extremes, Vol 34, Iss , Pp 100391- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Lake Victoria Regional climate modeling Climate projections Severe wind gusts Intense precipitation Compound events Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Lake Victoria Regional climate modeling Climate projections Severe wind gusts Intense precipitation Compound events Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Jonas Van de Walle Wim Thiery Roman Brogli Olivia Martius Jakob Zscheischler Nicole P.M. van Lipzig Future intensification of precipitation and wind gust associated thunderstorms over Lake Victoria
description	Severe thunderstorms affect more than 30 million people living along the shores of Lake Victoria (East Africa). Thousands of fishers lose their lives on the lake every year. While deadly waves are assumed to be initiated by severe wind gusts, knowledge about thunderstorms is restricted to precipitation or environmental proxies. Here we use a regional climate model run at convection-permitting resolution to simulate both precipitation and wind gusts over Lake Victoria for a historical 10-year period. In addition, a pseudo global warming simulation provides insight into the region’s future climate. In this simulation, ERA5’s initial and boundary conditions are perturbed with atmospheric changes between 1995–2025 and 2070–2100, projected by CMIP6’s ensemble mean. It was found that future decreases in both mean precipitation and wind gusts over Lake Victoria can be attributed to a weaker mean mesoscale circulation that reduces the trigger for over-lake nighttime convection and decreases the mean wind shear. However, an intensification of extremes is projected for both over-lake precipitation and wind gusts. The observed ∼7 %K−1 Clausius–Clapeyron extreme precipitation scaling is ascribed to increased water vapor content and a compensation of weaker mesoscale circulations and stronger thunderstorm dynamics. More frequent wind gust extremes result from higher wind shear conditions and more compound thunderstorms with both intense rainfall and severe wind gusts. Overall, our study emphasizes Lake Victoria’s modulating role in determining regional current and future extremes, in addition to changes expected from the Clausius–Clapeyron relation.
format	article
author	Jonas Van de Walle Wim Thiery Roman Brogli Olivia Martius Jakob Zscheischler Nicole P.M. van Lipzig
author_facet	Jonas Van de Walle Wim Thiery Roman Brogli Olivia Martius Jakob Zscheischler Nicole P.M. van Lipzig
author_sort	Jonas Van de Walle
title	Future intensification of precipitation and wind gust associated thunderstorms over Lake Victoria
title_short	Future intensification of precipitation and wind gust associated thunderstorms over Lake Victoria
title_full	Future intensification of precipitation and wind gust associated thunderstorms over Lake Victoria
title_fullStr	Future intensification of precipitation and wind gust associated thunderstorms over Lake Victoria
title_full_unstemmed	Future intensification of precipitation and wind gust associated thunderstorms over Lake Victoria
title_sort	future intensification of precipitation and wind gust associated thunderstorms over lake victoria
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/500c36ff8ce049b8b1f97c5e5a053d38
work_keys_str_mv	AT jonasvandewalle futureintensificationofprecipitationandwindgustassociatedthunderstormsoverlakevictoria AT wimthiery futureintensificationofprecipitationandwindgustassociatedthunderstormsoverlakevictoria AT romanbrogli futureintensificationofprecipitationandwindgustassociatedthunderstormsoverlakevictoria AT oliviamartius futureintensificationofprecipitationandwindgustassociatedthunderstormsoverlakevictoria AT jakobzscheischler futureintensificationofprecipitationandwindgustassociatedthunderstormsoverlakevictoria AT nicolepmvanlipzig futureintensificationofprecipitationandwindgustassociatedthunderstormsoverlakevictoria
_version_	1718440646307479552

Future intensification of precipitation and wind gust associated thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

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