Low temperatures or high isolation delay increases the average COVID-19 infections in India : A Mathematical modeling approach

The dynamics of COVID-19 in India are captured using a set of delay differential equations by dividing a population into five compartments. The Positivity and Boundedness of the system is shown. The Existence and Uniqueness condition for the solution of system of equations is presented. The equilibr...

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Autores principales:	Prakash D Bhanu, Chhetri Bishal, Vamsi D K K, Balasubramanian S, Sanjeevi Carani B
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	De Gruyter 2021
Materias:	covid-19 isolation delay critical delay temperature average infections 37n25 92b05 92c99 Biotechnology TP248.13-248.65 Physics QC1-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/50123581f8604b7180ce2b5a905381ba
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:50123581f8604b7180ce2b5a905381ba2021-12-05T14:10:45ZLow temperatures or high isolation delay increases the average COVID-19 infections in India : A Mathematical modeling approach2544-729710.1515/cmb-2020-0122https://doaj.org/article/50123581f8604b7180ce2b5a905381ba2021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1515/cmb-2020-0122https://doaj.org/toc/2544-7297The dynamics of COVID-19 in India are captured using a set of delay differential equations by dividing a population into five compartments. The Positivity and Boundedness of the system is shown. The Existence and Uniqueness condition for the solution of system of equations is presented. The equilibrium points are calculated and stability analysis is performed. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the parameters of the model. Bifurcation analysis is performed and the critical delay is calculated. By formulating the spread parameter as a function of temperature, the impact of temperature on the population is studied. We concluded that with the decrease in temperature, the average infections in the population increases. In view of the coming winter season in India, there will be an increase in new infections. This model falls in line with the characteristics that increase in isolation delay increases average infections in the population.Prakash D BhanuChhetri BishalVamsi D K KBalasubramanian SSanjeevi Carani BDe Gruyterarticlecovid-19isolation delaycritical delaytemperatureaverage infections37n2592b0592c99BiotechnologyTP248.13-248.65PhysicsQC1-999ENComputational and Mathematical Biophysics, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 146-174 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	covid-19 isolation delay critical delay temperature average infections 37n25 92b05 92c99 Biotechnology TP248.13-248.65 Physics QC1-999
spellingShingle	covid-19 isolation delay critical delay temperature average infections 37n25 92b05 92c99 Biotechnology TP248.13-248.65 Physics QC1-999 Prakash D Bhanu Chhetri Bishal Vamsi D K K Balasubramanian S Sanjeevi Carani B Low temperatures or high isolation delay increases the average COVID-19 infections in India : A Mathematical modeling approach
description	The dynamics of COVID-19 in India are captured using a set of delay differential equations by dividing a population into five compartments. The Positivity and Boundedness of the system is shown. The Existence and Uniqueness condition for the solution of system of equations is presented. The equilibrium points are calculated and stability analysis is performed. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the parameters of the model. Bifurcation analysis is performed and the critical delay is calculated. By formulating the spread parameter as a function of temperature, the impact of temperature on the population is studied. We concluded that with the decrease in temperature, the average infections in the population increases. In view of the coming winter season in India, there will be an increase in new infections. This model falls in line with the characteristics that increase in isolation delay increases average infections in the population.
format	article
author	Prakash D Bhanu Chhetri Bishal Vamsi D K K Balasubramanian S Sanjeevi Carani B
author_facet	Prakash D Bhanu Chhetri Bishal Vamsi D K K Balasubramanian S Sanjeevi Carani B
author_sort	Prakash D Bhanu
title	Low temperatures or high isolation delay increases the average COVID-19 infections in India : A Mathematical modeling approach
title_short	Low temperatures or high isolation delay increases the average COVID-19 infections in India : A Mathematical modeling approach
title_full	Low temperatures or high isolation delay increases the average COVID-19 infections in India : A Mathematical modeling approach
title_fullStr	Low temperatures or high isolation delay increases the average COVID-19 infections in India : A Mathematical modeling approach
title_full_unstemmed	Low temperatures or high isolation delay increases the average COVID-19 infections in India : A Mathematical modeling approach
title_sort	low temperatures or high isolation delay increases the average covid-19 infections in india : a mathematical modeling approach
publisher	De Gruyter
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/50123581f8604b7180ce2b5a905381ba
work_keys_str_mv	AT prakashdbhanu lowtemperaturesorhighisolationdelayincreasestheaveragecovid19infectionsinindiaamathematicalmodelingapproach AT chhetribishal lowtemperaturesorhighisolationdelayincreasestheaveragecovid19infectionsinindiaamathematicalmodelingapproach AT vamsidkk lowtemperaturesorhighisolationdelayincreasestheaveragecovid19infectionsinindiaamathematicalmodelingapproach AT balasubramanians lowtemperaturesorhighisolationdelayincreasestheaveragecovid19infectionsinindiaamathematicalmodelingapproach AT sanjeevicaranib lowtemperaturesorhighisolationdelayincreasestheaveragecovid19infectionsinindiaamathematicalmodelingapproach
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Low temperatures or high isolation delay increases the average COVID-19 infections in India : A Mathematical modeling approach

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