System dynamics-based prediction of North Korean port volumes

The purpose of this study is to predict North Korea's cargo volume per port, per item, using system dynamics. The products of which expected volumes are predicted include iron ore, oil, grain, cement, sand, coal, other ores, miscellaneous goods, and containers. We further distribute the forecas...

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Autores principales:	Tae-Won Chung, Jun-Woo Jeon
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Shipment of goods. Delivery of goods HF5761-5780
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/503a6e9cb52f47a6b237d09e31cdc8c2
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:503a6e9cb52f47a6b237d09e31cdc8c22021-12-04T04:33:40ZSystem dynamics-based prediction of North Korean port volumes2092-521210.1016/j.ajsl.2021.10.001https://doaj.org/article/503a6e9cb52f47a6b237d09e31cdc8c22021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2092521221000456https://doaj.org/toc/2092-5212The purpose of this study is to predict North Korea's cargo volume per port, per item, using system dynamics. The products of which expected volumes are predicted include iron ore, oil, grain, cement, sand, coal, other ores, miscellaneous goods, and containers. We further distribute the forecasted value of each item among the different North Korean ports based on inputs obtained during expert interviews. The selected ports are the nine trading ports of North Korea, namely, Najin, Chongjin, Nampo, Rajin-Seonbong, Songnim, Haeju, Hungnam, Wonsan, and Dancheon. Herein, the authors assume and predict the complete economic reopening of North Korea. Based on the forecast outcomes, Nampo Port handles the largest cargo volume among North Korean ports, which is expected to amount to 113,217 thousand tons by 2050. Chongjin Port is revealed as the second largest in terms of throughput, and is predicted to handle 47,525 thousand tons of cargo by 2050. On the same terms, Najin Port is deemed the third largest and is predicted to handle 37,816 thousand tons of cargo by 2050. Containers (72,454 thousand tons) and cement (45,897 thousand tons) rank first and second among the items of which the largest volumes are expected to be handled by North Korean ports, by 2050. These findings provide insight into North Korean port development potential and indicate prospects for inter-Korean cooperation, following North Korea’s economic reopening.Tae-Won ChungJun-Woo JeonElsevierarticleShipment of goods. Delivery of goodsHF5761-5780ENAsian Journal of Shipping and Logistics, Vol 37, Iss 4, Pp 337-344 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Shipment of goods. Delivery of goods HF5761-5780
spellingShingle	Shipment of goods. Delivery of goods HF5761-5780 Tae-Won Chung Jun-Woo Jeon System dynamics-based prediction of North Korean port volumes
description	The purpose of this study is to predict North Korea's cargo volume per port, per item, using system dynamics. The products of which expected volumes are predicted include iron ore, oil, grain, cement, sand, coal, other ores, miscellaneous goods, and containers. We further distribute the forecasted value of each item among the different North Korean ports based on inputs obtained during expert interviews. The selected ports are the nine trading ports of North Korea, namely, Najin, Chongjin, Nampo, Rajin-Seonbong, Songnim, Haeju, Hungnam, Wonsan, and Dancheon. Herein, the authors assume and predict the complete economic reopening of North Korea. Based on the forecast outcomes, Nampo Port handles the largest cargo volume among North Korean ports, which is expected to amount to 113,217 thousand tons by 2050. Chongjin Port is revealed as the second largest in terms of throughput, and is predicted to handle 47,525 thousand tons of cargo by 2050. On the same terms, Najin Port is deemed the third largest and is predicted to handle 37,816 thousand tons of cargo by 2050. Containers (72,454 thousand tons) and cement (45,897 thousand tons) rank first and second among the items of which the largest volumes are expected to be handled by North Korean ports, by 2050. These findings provide insight into North Korean port development potential and indicate prospects for inter-Korean cooperation, following North Korea’s economic reopening.
format	article
author	Tae-Won Chung Jun-Woo Jeon
author_facet	Tae-Won Chung Jun-Woo Jeon
author_sort	Tae-Won Chung
title	System dynamics-based prediction of North Korean port volumes
title_short	System dynamics-based prediction of North Korean port volumes
title_full	System dynamics-based prediction of North Korean port volumes
title_fullStr	System dynamics-based prediction of North Korean port volumes
title_full_unstemmed	System dynamics-based prediction of North Korean port volumes
title_sort	system dynamics-based prediction of north korean port volumes
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/503a6e9cb52f47a6b237d09e31cdc8c2
work_keys_str_mv	AT taewonchung systemdynamicsbasedpredictionofnorthkoreanportvolumes AT junwoojeon systemdynamicsbasedpredictionofnorthkoreanportvolumes
_version_	1718372965367676928

System dynamics-based prediction of North Korean port volumes

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