Dispersion characteristics of radioactive materials estimated by wind patterns

Abstract The radioactive materials are generally concentrated downwind of their origins when the prevailing winds blow continuously in one direction. If this principle determined the pattern of dispersion in all cases, dispersion directions could be estimated by wind patterns. However, this hypothes...

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Autores principales:	Takao Yoshikane, Kei Yoshimura
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2018
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/5064840515c0473ca99b08982e10d533
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:5064840515c0473ca99b08982e10d5332021-12-02T15:08:48ZDispersion characteristics of radioactive materials estimated by wind patterns10.1038/s41598-018-27955-42045-2322https://doaj.org/article/5064840515c0473ca99b08982e10d5332018-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-27955-4https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The radioactive materials are generally concentrated downwind of their origins when the prevailing winds blow continuously in one direction. If this principle determined the pattern of dispersion in all cases, dispersion directions could be estimated by wind patterns. However, this hypothesis has not been sufficiently verified because of the complexity of dispersion processes and weather systems. Here, we show that dispersion directions, which are divided into four ranges, can be estimated by wind patterns using a machine learning approach. The five-year average hit rates of the directions of dispersion estimated using near-surface winds exceed 0.85 in all months. The dispersion directions can be estimated up to 33 hours in advance using forecast winds. In particular, high hit rates exceeding 0.95 are achieved in January and March, when large-scale weather systems dominate. These results indicate that the dispersion directions are determined by the wind patterns that correspond to large-scale weather systems and diurnal circulation patterns in most cases. Our findings also provide more reliable information on dispersion patterns with reduced uncertainties, given that reasonable skill is achieved at a sufficient lead time for evacuation.Takao YoshikaneKei YoshimuraNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2018)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Takao Yoshikane Kei Yoshimura Dispersion characteristics of radioactive materials estimated by wind patterns
description	Abstract The radioactive materials are generally concentrated downwind of their origins when the prevailing winds blow continuously in one direction. If this principle determined the pattern of dispersion in all cases, dispersion directions could be estimated by wind patterns. However, this hypothesis has not been sufficiently verified because of the complexity of dispersion processes and weather systems. Here, we show that dispersion directions, which are divided into four ranges, can be estimated by wind patterns using a machine learning approach. The five-year average hit rates of the directions of dispersion estimated using near-surface winds exceed 0.85 in all months. The dispersion directions can be estimated up to 33 hours in advance using forecast winds. In particular, high hit rates exceeding 0.95 are achieved in January and March, when large-scale weather systems dominate. These results indicate that the dispersion directions are determined by the wind patterns that correspond to large-scale weather systems and diurnal circulation patterns in most cases. Our findings also provide more reliable information on dispersion patterns with reduced uncertainties, given that reasonable skill is achieved at a sufficient lead time for evacuation.
format	article
author	Takao Yoshikane Kei Yoshimura
author_facet	Takao Yoshikane Kei Yoshimura
author_sort	Takao Yoshikane
title	Dispersion characteristics of radioactive materials estimated by wind patterns
title_short	Dispersion characteristics of radioactive materials estimated by wind patterns
title_full	Dispersion characteristics of radioactive materials estimated by wind patterns
title_fullStr	Dispersion characteristics of radioactive materials estimated by wind patterns
title_full_unstemmed	Dispersion characteristics of radioactive materials estimated by wind patterns
title_sort	dispersion characteristics of radioactive materials estimated by wind patterns
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2018
url	https://doaj.org/article/5064840515c0473ca99b08982e10d533
work_keys_str_mv	AT takaoyoshikane dispersioncharacteristicsofradioactivematerialsestimatedbywindpatterns AT keiyoshimura dispersioncharacteristicsofradioactivematerialsestimatedbywindpatterns
_version_	1718387997102047232

Dispersion characteristics of radioactive materials estimated by wind patterns

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