Simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of syphilis among MSM in Guangdong Province: results from a serial cross-sectional study

Abstract Background The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a simple-to-use nomogram for the prediction of syphilis infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Guangdong Province. Methods A serial cross-sectional data of 2184 MSM from 2017 to 2019 was used to develop and validat...

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Autores principales:	Peizhen Zhao, Ziying Yang, Baohui Li, Mingzhou Xiong, Ye Zhang, Jiyuan Zhou, Cheng Wang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	BMC 2021
Materias:	Men who have sex with men Syphilis Nomogram Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/50680186869441dcbd87e1c9410f5bb5
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:50680186869441dcbd87e1c9410f5bb52021-12-05T12:26:15ZSimple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of syphilis among MSM in Guangdong Province: results from a serial cross-sectional study10.1186/s12879-021-06912-z1471-2334https://doaj.org/article/50680186869441dcbd87e1c9410f5bb52021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06912-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/1471-2334Abstract Background The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a simple-to-use nomogram for the prediction of syphilis infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Guangdong Province. Methods A serial cross-sectional data of 2184 MSM from 2017 to 2019 was used to develop and validate the nomogram risk assessment model. The eligible MSM were randomly assigned to the training and validation dataset. Factors included in the nomogram were determined by multivariate logistic regression analysis based on the training dataset. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves was used to assess its predictive accuracy and discriminative ability. Results A total of 2184 MSM were recruited in this study. The prevalence of syphilis was 18.1% (396/2184). Multivariate logistic analysis found that age, the main venue used to find sexual partners, condom use in the past 6 months, commercial sex in the past 6 months, infection with sexually transmitted diseases (STD) in the past year were associated with syphilis infection using the training dataset. All these factors were included in the nomogram model that was well calibrated. The C-index was 0.80 (95% CI 0.76–0.84) in the training dataset, and 0.79 (95% CI 0.75–0.84) in the validation dataset. Conclusions A simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of syphilis has been developed and validated among MSM in Guangdong Province. The proposed nomogram shows good assessment performance.Peizhen ZhaoZiying YangBaohui LiMingzhou XiongYe ZhangJiyuan ZhouCheng WangBMCarticleMen who have sex with menSyphilisNomogramInfectious and parasitic diseasesRC109-216ENBMC Infectious Diseases, Vol 21, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Men who have sex with men Syphilis Nomogram Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
spellingShingle	Men who have sex with men Syphilis Nomogram Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Peizhen Zhao Ziying Yang Baohui Li Mingzhou Xiong Ye Zhang Jiyuan Zhou Cheng Wang Simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of syphilis among MSM in Guangdong Province: results from a serial cross-sectional study
description	Abstract Background The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a simple-to-use nomogram for the prediction of syphilis infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Guangdong Province. Methods A serial cross-sectional data of 2184 MSM from 2017 to 2019 was used to develop and validate the nomogram risk assessment model. The eligible MSM were randomly assigned to the training and validation dataset. Factors included in the nomogram were determined by multivariate logistic regression analysis based on the training dataset. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves was used to assess its predictive accuracy and discriminative ability. Results A total of 2184 MSM were recruited in this study. The prevalence of syphilis was 18.1% (396/2184). Multivariate logistic analysis found that age, the main venue used to find sexual partners, condom use in the past 6 months, commercial sex in the past 6 months, infection with sexually transmitted diseases (STD) in the past year were associated with syphilis infection using the training dataset. All these factors were included in the nomogram model that was well calibrated. The C-index was 0.80 (95% CI 0.76–0.84) in the training dataset, and 0.79 (95% CI 0.75–0.84) in the validation dataset. Conclusions A simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of syphilis has been developed and validated among MSM in Guangdong Province. The proposed nomogram shows good assessment performance.
format	article
author	Peizhen Zhao Ziying Yang Baohui Li Mingzhou Xiong Ye Zhang Jiyuan Zhou Cheng Wang
author_facet	Peizhen Zhao Ziying Yang Baohui Li Mingzhou Xiong Ye Zhang Jiyuan Zhou Cheng Wang
author_sort	Peizhen Zhao
title	Simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of syphilis among MSM in Guangdong Province: results from a serial cross-sectional study
title_short	Simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of syphilis among MSM in Guangdong Province: results from a serial cross-sectional study
title_full	Simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of syphilis among MSM in Guangdong Province: results from a serial cross-sectional study
title_fullStr	Simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of syphilis among MSM in Guangdong Province: results from a serial cross-sectional study
title_full_unstemmed	Simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of syphilis among MSM in Guangdong Province: results from a serial cross-sectional study
title_sort	simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of syphilis among msm in guangdong province: results from a serial cross-sectional study
publisher	BMC
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/50680186869441dcbd87e1c9410f5bb5
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Simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of syphilis among MSM in Guangdong Province: results from a serial cross-sectional study

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