On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe

Abstract Summer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are expected to become stronger and possibly overcome fire prevention effor...

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Autores principales:	Marco Turco, Jost von Hardenberg, Amir AghaKouchak, Maria Carmen Llasat, Antonello Provenzale, Ricardo M. Trigo
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/513aa126d8e34a9897bb69c07fd4189c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:513aa126d8e34a9897bb69c07fd4189c2021-12-02T12:32:03ZOn the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe10.1038/s41598-017-00116-92045-2322https://doaj.org/article/513aa126d8e34a9897bb69c07fd4189c2017-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00116-9https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Summer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are expected to become stronger and possibly overcome fire prevention efforts. However, significant uncertainties exist and the direct effect of climate change in regulating fuel moisture (e.g. warmer conditions increasing fuel dryness) could be counterbalanced by the indirect effects on fuel structure (e.g. warmer conditions limiting fuel amount), affecting the transition between climate-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes as temperatures increase. Here we analyse and model the impact of coincident drought and antecedent wet conditions (proxy for the climatic factor influencing total fuel and fine fuel structure) on the summer Burned Area (BA) across all eco-regions in Mediterranean Europe. This approach allows BA to be linked to the key drivers of fire in the region. We show a statistically significant relationship between fire and same-summer droughts in most regions, while antecedent climate conditions play a relatively minor role, except in few specific eco-regions. The presented models for individual eco-regions provide insights on the impacts of climate variability on BA, and appear to be promising for developing a seasonal forecast system supporting fire management strategies.Marco TurcoJost von HardenbergAmir AghaKouchakMaria Carmen LlasatAntonello ProvenzaleRicardo M. TrigoNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Marco Turco Jost von Hardenberg Amir AghaKouchak Maria Carmen Llasat Antonello Provenzale Ricardo M. Trigo On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe
description	Abstract Summer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are expected to become stronger and possibly overcome fire prevention efforts. However, significant uncertainties exist and the direct effect of climate change in regulating fuel moisture (e.g. warmer conditions increasing fuel dryness) could be counterbalanced by the indirect effects on fuel structure (e.g. warmer conditions limiting fuel amount), affecting the transition between climate-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes as temperatures increase. Here we analyse and model the impact of coincident drought and antecedent wet conditions (proxy for the climatic factor influencing total fuel and fine fuel structure) on the summer Burned Area (BA) across all eco-regions in Mediterranean Europe. This approach allows BA to be linked to the key drivers of fire in the region. We show a statistically significant relationship between fire and same-summer droughts in most regions, while antecedent climate conditions play a relatively minor role, except in few specific eco-regions. The presented models for individual eco-regions provide insights on the impacts of climate variability on BA, and appear to be promising for developing a seasonal forecast system supporting fire management strategies.
format	article
author	Marco Turco Jost von Hardenberg Amir AghaKouchak Maria Carmen Llasat Antonello Provenzale Ricardo M. Trigo
author_facet	Marco Turco Jost von Hardenberg Amir AghaKouchak Maria Carmen Llasat Antonello Provenzale Ricardo M. Trigo
author_sort	Marco Turco
title	On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe
title_short	On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe
title_full	On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe
title_fullStr	On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe
title_full_unstemmed	On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe
title_sort	on the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in mediterranean europe
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/513aa126d8e34a9897bb69c07fd4189c
work_keys_str_mv	AT marcoturco onthekeyroleofdroughtsinthedynamicsofsummerfiresinmediterraneaneurope AT jostvonhardenberg onthekeyroleofdroughtsinthedynamicsofsummerfiresinmediterraneaneurope AT amiraghakouchak onthekeyroleofdroughtsinthedynamicsofsummerfiresinmediterraneaneurope AT mariacarmenllasat onthekeyroleofdroughtsinthedynamicsofsummerfiresinmediterraneaneurope AT antonelloprovenzale onthekeyroleofdroughtsinthedynamicsofsummerfiresinmediterraneaneurope AT ricardomtrigo onthekeyroleofdroughtsinthedynamicsofsummerfiresinmediterraneaneurope
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On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe

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