Implications of Delayed Reopening in Controlling the COVID-19 Surge in Southern and West-Central USA

In the wake of the rapid surge in the COVID-19-infected cases seen in Southern and West-Central USA in the period of June-July 2020, there is an urgent need to develop robust, data-driven models to quantify the effect which early reopening had on the infected case count increase. In particular, it i...

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Autores principales:	Raj Dandekar, Emma Wang, George Barbastathis, Chris Rackauckas
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) 2021
Materias:	Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics R858-859.7
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/51620b4371ec4fd5b0d6f9fb10984efd
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:51620b4371ec4fd5b0d6f9fb10984efd2021-11-08T08:26:27ZImplications of Delayed Reopening in Controlling the COVID-19 Surge in Southern and West-Central USA2765-878310.34133/2021/9798302https://doaj.org/article/51620b4371ec4fd5b0d6f9fb10984efd2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://dx.doi.org/10.34133/2021/9798302https://doaj.org/toc/2765-8783In the wake of the rapid surge in the COVID-19-infected cases seen in Southern and West-Central USA in the period of June-July 2020, there is an urgent need to develop robust, data-driven models to quantify the effect which early reopening had on the infected case count increase. In particular, it is imperative to address the question: How many infected cases could have been prevented, had the worst affected states not reopened early? To address this question, we have developed a novel COVID-19 model by augmenting the classical SIR epidemiological model with a neural network module. The model decomposes the contribution of quarantine strength to the infection time series, allowing us to quantify the role of quarantine control and the associated reopening policies in the US states which showed a major surge in infections. We show that the upsurge in the infected cases seen in these states is strongly corelated with a drop in the quarantine/lockdown strength diagnosed by our model. Further, our results demonstrate that in the event of a stricter lockdown without early reopening, the number of active infected cases recorded on 14 July could have been reduced by more than 40% in all states considered, with the actual number of infections reduced being more than 100,000 for the states of Florida and Texas. As we continue our fight against COVID-19, our proposed model can be used as a valuable asset to simulate the effect of several reopening strategies on the infected count evolution, for any region under consideration.Raj DandekarEmma WangGeorge BarbastathisChris RackauckasAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)articleComputer applications to medicine. Medical informaticsR858-859.7ENHealth Data Science, Vol 2021 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics R858-859.7
spellingShingle	Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics R858-859.7 Raj Dandekar Emma Wang George Barbastathis Chris Rackauckas Implications of Delayed Reopening in Controlling the COVID-19 Surge in Southern and West-Central USA
description	In the wake of the rapid surge in the COVID-19-infected cases seen in Southern and West-Central USA in the period of June-July 2020, there is an urgent need to develop robust, data-driven models to quantify the effect which early reopening had on the infected case count increase. In particular, it is imperative to address the question: How many infected cases could have been prevented, had the worst affected states not reopened early? To address this question, we have developed a novel COVID-19 model by augmenting the classical SIR epidemiological model with a neural network module. The model decomposes the contribution of quarantine strength to the infection time series, allowing us to quantify the role of quarantine control and the associated reopening policies in the US states which showed a major surge in infections. We show that the upsurge in the infected cases seen in these states is strongly corelated with a drop in the quarantine/lockdown strength diagnosed by our model. Further, our results demonstrate that in the event of a stricter lockdown without early reopening, the number of active infected cases recorded on 14 July could have been reduced by more than 40% in all states considered, with the actual number of infections reduced being more than 100,000 for the states of Florida and Texas. As we continue our fight against COVID-19, our proposed model can be used as a valuable asset to simulate the effect of several reopening strategies on the infected count evolution, for any region under consideration.
format	article
author	Raj Dandekar Emma Wang George Barbastathis Chris Rackauckas
author_facet	Raj Dandekar Emma Wang George Barbastathis Chris Rackauckas
author_sort	Raj Dandekar
title	Implications of Delayed Reopening in Controlling the COVID-19 Surge in Southern and West-Central USA
title_short	Implications of Delayed Reopening in Controlling the COVID-19 Surge in Southern and West-Central USA
title_full	Implications of Delayed Reopening in Controlling the COVID-19 Surge in Southern and West-Central USA
title_fullStr	Implications of Delayed Reopening in Controlling the COVID-19 Surge in Southern and West-Central USA
title_full_unstemmed	Implications of Delayed Reopening in Controlling the COVID-19 Surge in Southern and West-Central USA
title_sort	implications of delayed reopening in controlling the covid-19 surge in southern and west-central usa
publisher	American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/51620b4371ec4fd5b0d6f9fb10984efd
work_keys_str_mv	AT rajdandekar implicationsofdelayedreopeningincontrollingthecovid19surgeinsouthernandwestcentralusa AT emmawang implicationsofdelayedreopeningincontrollingthecovid19surgeinsouthernandwestcentralusa AT georgebarbastathis implicationsofdelayedreopeningincontrollingthecovid19surgeinsouthernandwestcentralusa AT chrisrackauckas implicationsofdelayedreopeningincontrollingthecovid19surgeinsouthernandwestcentralusa
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Implications of Delayed Reopening in Controlling the COVID-19 Surge in Southern and West-Central USA

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