Predicting the fate of biodiversity using species' distribution models: enhancing model comparability and repeatability.

Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an increasingly important tool to predict the geographic distribution of species. Even though many problems associated with this method have been highlighted and solutions have been proposed, little has been done to increase comparability among studies. We revi...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Genoveva Rodríguez-Castañeda, Anouschka R Hof, Roland Jansson, Larisa E Harding
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2012
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/5163245357914354897a27c98a4520e6
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:5163245357914354897a27c98a4520e6
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:5163245357914354897a27c98a4520e62021-11-18T07:06:03ZPredicting the fate of biodiversity using species' distribution models: enhancing model comparability and repeatability.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0044402https://doaj.org/article/5163245357914354897a27c98a4520e62012-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/22984502/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an increasingly important tool to predict the geographic distribution of species. Even though many problems associated with this method have been highlighted and solutions have been proposed, little has been done to increase comparability among studies. We reviewed recent publications applying SDMs and found that seventy nine percent failed to report methods that ensure comparability among studies, such as disclosing the maximum probability range produced by the models and reporting on the number of species occurrences used. We modeled six species of Falco from northern Europe and demonstrate that model results are altered by (1) spatial bias in species' occurrence data, (2) differences in the geographic extent of the environmental data, and (3) the effects of transformation of model output to presence/absence data when applying thresholds. Depending on the modeling decisions, forecasts of the future geographic distribution of Falco ranged from range contraction in 80% of the species to no net loss in any species, with the best model predicting no net loss of habitat in Northern Europe. The fact that predictions of range changes in response to climate change in published studies may be influenced by decisions in the modeling process seriously hampers the possibility of making sound management recommendations. Thus, each of the decisions made in generating SDMs should be reported and evaluated to ensure conclusions and policies are based on the biology and ecology of the species being modeled.Genoveva Rodríguez-CastañedaAnouschka R HofRoland JanssonLarisa E HardingPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 7, Iss 9, p e44402 (2012)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Genoveva Rodríguez-Castañeda Anouschka R Hof Roland Jansson Larisa E Harding Predicting the fate of biodiversity using species' distribution models: enhancing model comparability and repeatability.
description	Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an increasingly important tool to predict the geographic distribution of species. Even though many problems associated with this method have been highlighted and solutions have been proposed, little has been done to increase comparability among studies. We reviewed recent publications applying SDMs and found that seventy nine percent failed to report methods that ensure comparability among studies, such as disclosing the maximum probability range produced by the models and reporting on the number of species occurrences used. We modeled six species of Falco from northern Europe and demonstrate that model results are altered by (1) spatial bias in species' occurrence data, (2) differences in the geographic extent of the environmental data, and (3) the effects of transformation of model output to presence/absence data when applying thresholds. Depending on the modeling decisions, forecasts of the future geographic distribution of Falco ranged from range contraction in 80% of the species to no net loss in any species, with the best model predicting no net loss of habitat in Northern Europe. The fact that predictions of range changes in response to climate change in published studies may be influenced by decisions in the modeling process seriously hampers the possibility of making sound management recommendations. Thus, each of the decisions made in generating SDMs should be reported and evaluated to ensure conclusions and policies are based on the biology and ecology of the species being modeled.
format	article
author	Genoveva Rodríguez-Castañeda Anouschka R Hof Roland Jansson Larisa E Harding
author_facet	Genoveva Rodríguez-Castañeda Anouschka R Hof Roland Jansson Larisa E Harding
author_sort	Genoveva Rodríguez-Castañeda
title	Predicting the fate of biodiversity using species' distribution models: enhancing model comparability and repeatability.
title_short	Predicting the fate of biodiversity using species' distribution models: enhancing model comparability and repeatability.
title_full	Predicting the fate of biodiversity using species' distribution models: enhancing model comparability and repeatability.
title_fullStr	Predicting the fate of biodiversity using species' distribution models: enhancing model comparability and repeatability.
title_full_unstemmed	Predicting the fate of biodiversity using species' distribution models: enhancing model comparability and repeatability.
title_sort	predicting the fate of biodiversity using species' distribution models: enhancing model comparability and repeatability.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2012
url	https://doaj.org/article/5163245357914354897a27c98a4520e6
work_keys_str_mv	AT genovevarodriguezcastaneda predictingthefateofbiodiversityusingspeciesdistributionmodelsenhancingmodelcomparabilityandrepeatability AT anouschkarhof predictingthefateofbiodiversityusingspeciesdistributionmodelsenhancingmodelcomparabilityandrepeatability AT rolandjansson predictingthefateofbiodiversityusingspeciesdistributionmodelsenhancingmodelcomparabilityandrepeatability AT larisaeharding predictingthefateofbiodiversityusingspeciesdistributionmodelsenhancingmodelcomparabilityandrepeatability
_version_	1718423914154033152

Predicting the fate of biodiversity using species' distribution models: enhancing model comparability and repeatability.

Ejemplares similares