Mathematically aggregating experts' predictions of possible futures.

Structured protocols offer a transparent and systematic way to elicit and combine/aggregate, probabilistic predictions from multiple experts. These judgements can be aggregated behaviourally or mathematically to derive a final group prediction. Mathematical rules (e.g., weighted linear combinations...

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Autores principales: A M Hanea, D P Wilkinson, M McBride, A Lyon, D van Ravenzwaaij, F Singleton Thorn, C Gray, D R Mandel, A Willcox, E Gould, E T Smith, F Mody, M Bush, F Fidler, H Fraser, B C Wintle
Formato: article
Lenguaje:EN
Publicado: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
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Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/51cfd1033af648108353eb27896efb2e
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