Thermal Niche for Seed Germination and Species Distribution Modelling of <i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King (Mahogany) under Climate Change Scenarios

<i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> is an economically important tree species propagated by seeds that lose their viability in a short time, making seed germination a key stage for the species recruitment. The objective of this study was to determine the cardinal temperatures and thermal time f...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:
Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Salvador Sampayo-Maldonado, Cesar A. Ordoñez-Salanueva, Efisio Mattana, Michael Way, Elena Castillo-Lorenzo, Patricia D. Dávila-Aranda, Rafael Lira-Saade, Oswaldo Téllez-Valdés, Norma I. Rodriguez-Arevalo, Tiziana Ulian, Cesar M. Flores-Ortíz
Formato: article
Lenguaje:EN
Publicado: MDPI AG 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/51fdf4e7f2fd4e90968705b104a15edc
Etiquetas: Agregar Etiqueta
Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!
Descripción
Sumario:<i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> is an economically important tree species propagated by seeds that lose their viability in a short time, making seed germination a key stage for the species recruitment. The objective of this study was to determine the cardinal temperatures and thermal time for seed germination of <i>S. macrophylla</i>; and its potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Seeds were placed in germination chambers at constant temperatures from 5 to 45 °C and their thermal responses modelled using a thermal time approach. In addition, the potential biogeographic distribution was projected according to the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Germination rate reached its maximum at 37.3 ± 1.3 °C (To); seed germination decreased to near zero at 52.7 ± 2.2 °C (ceiling temperature, Tc) and at 12.8 ± 2.4 °C (base temperature, Tb). The suboptimal thermal time <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mfenced><mrow><msub><mi>θ</mi><mn>1</mn></msub><mfenced><mrow><mn>50</mn></mrow></mfenced></mrow></mfenced></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> needed for 50% germination was ca. 190 °Cd, which in the current scenario is accumulated in 20 days. The CCSM4 model estimates an increase of the potential distribution of the species of 12.3 to 18.3% compared to the current scenario. The temperature had an important effect on the physiological processes of the seeds. With the increase in temperature, the thermal needs for germination are completed in less time, so the species will not be affected in its distribution. Although the distribution of the species may not be affected, it is crucial to generate sustainable management strategies to ensure its long-term conservation.