Thermal Niche for Seed Germination and Species Distribution Modelling of <i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King (Mahogany) under Climate Change Scenarios

<i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> is an economically important tree species propagated by seeds that lose their viability in a short time, making seed germination a key stage for the species recruitment. The objective of this study was to determine the cardinal temperatures and thermal time f...

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Autores principales:	Salvador Sampayo-Maldonado, Cesar A. Ordoñez-Salanueva, Efisio Mattana, Michael Way, Elena Castillo-Lorenzo, Patricia D. Dávila-Aranda, Rafael Lira-Saade, Oswaldo Téllez-Valdés, Norma I. Rodriguez-Arevalo, Tiziana Ulian, Cesar M. Flores-Ortíz
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	mahogany tree seed germination cardinal temperatures thermal time climate change potential distribution Botany QK1-989
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/51fdf4e7f2fd4e90968705b104a15edc
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:51fdf4e7f2fd4e90968705b104a15edc2021-11-25T18:46:01ZThermal Niche for Seed Germination and Species Distribution Modelling of <i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King (Mahogany) under Climate Change Scenarios10.3390/plants101123772223-7747https://doaj.org/article/51fdf4e7f2fd4e90968705b104a15edc2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/10/11/2377https://doaj.org/toc/2223-7747<i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> is an economically important tree species propagated by seeds that lose their viability in a short time, making seed germination a key stage for the species recruitment. The objective of this study was to determine the cardinal temperatures and thermal time for seed germination of <i>S. macrophylla</i>; and its potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Seeds were placed in germination chambers at constant temperatures from 5 to 45 °C and their thermal responses modelled using a thermal time approach. In addition, the potential biogeographic distribution was projected according to the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Germination rate reached its maximum at 37.3 ± 1.3 °C (To); seed germination decreased to near zero at 52.7 ± 2.2 °C (ceiling temperature, Tc) and at 12.8 ± 2.4 °C (base temperature, Tb). The suboptimal thermal time <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mfenced><mrow><msub><mi>θ</mi><mn>1</mn></msub><mfenced><mrow><mn>50</mn></mrow></mfenced></mrow></mfenced></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> needed for 50% germination was ca. 190 °Cd, which in the current scenario is accumulated in 20 days. The CCSM4 model estimates an increase of the potential distribution of the species of 12.3 to 18.3% compared to the current scenario. The temperature had an important effect on the physiological processes of the seeds. With the increase in temperature, the thermal needs for germination are completed in less time, so the species will not be affected in its distribution. Although the distribution of the species may not be affected, it is crucial to generate sustainable management strategies to ensure its long-term conservation.Salvador Sampayo-MaldonadoCesar A. Ordoñez-SalanuevaEfisio MattanaMichael WayElena Castillo-LorenzoPatricia D. Dávila-ArandaRafael Lira-SaadeOswaldo Téllez-ValdésNorma I. Rodriguez-ArevaloTiziana UlianCesar M. Flores-OrtízMDPI AGarticlemahogany treeseed germinationcardinal temperaturesthermal timeclimate changepotential distributionBotanyQK1-989ENPlants, Vol 10, Iss 2377, p 2377 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	mahogany tree seed germination cardinal temperatures thermal time climate change potential distribution Botany QK1-989
spellingShingle	mahogany tree seed germination cardinal temperatures thermal time climate change potential distribution Botany QK1-989 Salvador Sampayo-Maldonado Cesar A. Ordoñez-Salanueva Efisio Mattana Michael Way Elena Castillo-Lorenzo Patricia D. Dávila-Aranda Rafael Lira-Saade Oswaldo Téllez-Valdés Norma I. Rodriguez-Arevalo Tiziana Ulian Cesar M. Flores-Ortíz Thermal Niche for Seed Germination and Species Distribution Modelling of <i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King (Mahogany) under Climate Change Scenarios
description	<i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> is an economically important tree species propagated by seeds that lose their viability in a short time, making seed germination a key stage for the species recruitment. The objective of this study was to determine the cardinal temperatures and thermal time for seed germination of <i>S. macrophylla</i>; and its potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Seeds were placed in germination chambers at constant temperatures from 5 to 45 °C and their thermal responses modelled using a thermal time approach. In addition, the potential biogeographic distribution was projected according to the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Germination rate reached its maximum at 37.3 ± 1.3 °C (To); seed germination decreased to near zero at 52.7 ± 2.2 °C (ceiling temperature, Tc) and at 12.8 ± 2.4 °C (base temperature, Tb). The suboptimal thermal time <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mfenced><mrow><msub><mi>θ</mi><mn>1</mn></msub><mfenced><mrow><mn>50</mn></mrow></mfenced></mrow></mfenced></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> needed for 50% germination was ca. 190 °Cd, which in the current scenario is accumulated in 20 days. The CCSM4 model estimates an increase of the potential distribution of the species of 12.3 to 18.3% compared to the current scenario. The temperature had an important effect on the physiological processes of the seeds. With the increase in temperature, the thermal needs for germination are completed in less time, so the species will not be affected in its distribution. Although the distribution of the species may not be affected, it is crucial to generate sustainable management strategies to ensure its long-term conservation.
format	article
author	Salvador Sampayo-Maldonado Cesar A. Ordoñez-Salanueva Efisio Mattana Michael Way Elena Castillo-Lorenzo Patricia D. Dávila-Aranda Rafael Lira-Saade Oswaldo Téllez-Valdés Norma I. Rodriguez-Arevalo Tiziana Ulian Cesar M. Flores-Ortíz
author_facet	Salvador Sampayo-Maldonado Cesar A. Ordoñez-Salanueva Efisio Mattana Michael Way Elena Castillo-Lorenzo Patricia D. Dávila-Aranda Rafael Lira-Saade Oswaldo Téllez-Valdés Norma I. Rodriguez-Arevalo Tiziana Ulian Cesar M. Flores-Ortíz
author_sort	Salvador Sampayo-Maldonado
title	Thermal Niche for Seed Germination and Species Distribution Modelling of <i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King (Mahogany) under Climate Change Scenarios
title_short	Thermal Niche for Seed Germination and Species Distribution Modelling of <i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King (Mahogany) under Climate Change Scenarios
title_full	Thermal Niche for Seed Germination and Species Distribution Modelling of <i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King (Mahogany) under Climate Change Scenarios
title_fullStr	Thermal Niche for Seed Germination and Species Distribution Modelling of <i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King (Mahogany) under Climate Change Scenarios
title_full_unstemmed	Thermal Niche for Seed Germination and Species Distribution Modelling of <i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King (Mahogany) under Climate Change Scenarios
title_sort	thermal niche for seed germination and species distribution modelling of <i>swietenia macrophylla</i> king (mahogany) under climate change scenarios
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/51fdf4e7f2fd4e90968705b104a15edc
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Thermal Niche for Seed Germination and Species Distribution Modelling of <i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King (Mahogany) under Climate Change Scenarios

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